12519 Timber Creek Dr #2 · Carmel, IN 46032

$217,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · Condo public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1989 $203/sqft · 11% below area Est $245k · 11% under $268/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOCATION is EVERYTHING! This desirable, low-maintenance end-unit condo offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a layout designed for both privacy and comfort. The split floor plan features spacious bedrooms - each with its own walk-in closet, and each with their own dedicated bathroom. Unwind on your screened-in patio overlooking a tranquil pond, perfect for peaceful mornings or quiet evenings. Recent updates include: Upgraded interior plumbing lines that have been brought up to code, and updated electrical outlets were also added for code reasons - 220-volts were added for the oven, and the dryer outlet received a 4-pin plug. Additionally, a new side window was installed in the primary bedroom. This condo combines comfort and convenience with the opportunity to add your own personal touches. Best of all, the location is unbeatable-walkable to restaurants, parks, trails, galleries, community events, AND the neighborhood pool & clubhouse. Don't wait-schedule your showing today before this one is SOLD!

Key facts

• New side window
• End-unit condo
• Screened-in patio

Tags

• END-UNIT CONDO
• SCREENED-IN PATIO
• TRANQUIL POND
• UPGRADED INTERIOR PLUMBING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL OUTLETS
• NEW SIDE WINDOW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($499/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $218k).
• Recommended offer: $204k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.7% in Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#7 in IN, #726 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Carmel Clay Schools (urban): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #1 of 301 in IN (top 0%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,661 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (1,528 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $204,450 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,114
• List price: $217,500
• Delta: -11.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-24,107
• Equity at exit: $32,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $19,763
• Equity at exit: $18,805

Cash invested: $60,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46032

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,141
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$272 /mo · $3,262/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$268
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,242

Max offer price $217,500

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,375
• Closing costs: $6,525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1059 Timber Creek Dr Carmel, IN	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,850	$1.34	43d	1	0.09mi
12484 Breaklines St Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,044	$1.96	1d	19	0.11mi
675 Beacon St Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,395	$2.42	1d	18	0.26mi
358 Dartmouth St Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,095	$1.76	3d	1	0.31mi
301 American Way N Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1167	$2,980	$2.55	1d	1	0.44mi
881 3rd Ave SW Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1135	$1,999	$1.76	1d	2	0.49mi
300 Providence Blvd Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	990	$2,019	$2.04	1d	35	0.52mi
947 Wickham Ct #206 Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,650	$1.54	3d	1	0.53mi
400 Industrial Dr Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1175	$3,570	$3.04	1d	59	0.57mi
880 Monon Green Blvd Carmel, IN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$3,235	$3.10	43d	5	0.58mi
750 Veterans Way Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1144	$4,282	$3.74	1d	1	0.61mi
833 W Main St Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1304	$3,485	$2.67	7d	23	0.62mi
591 Monon Blvd Carmel, IN	3.0	1.0–2.0	791	$2,951	$3.73	1d	24	0.65mi
720 S Rangeline Rd Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$3,345	$3.07	1d	1	0.68mi
1111 W Main St Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$3,224	$3.46	1d	8	0.73mi
530 W Main St Carmel, IN	2.0	1.0–1.5	875	$1,412	$1.61	1d	1	0.73mi
760 Walkabout Cir E Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	569	$2,224	$3.91	1d	24	0.77mi
1225 Veterans Way Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$2,483	$2.47	1d	10	0.79mi
12415 N Pennsylvania St Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,824	$1.94	1d	21	0.79mi
25 Florence St Carmel, IN	2.0	2.5	1338	$2,249	$1.68	10d	1	0.85mi
110 W Main St Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1095	$3,868	$3.53	1d	16	0.88mi
231 Lark Dr #3 Carmel, IN	2.0	1.0	925	$1,195	$1.29	1d	1	0.92mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit 221-03 Carmel, IN	2.0	1.5	876	$1,499	$1.71	20d	1	1.01mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit 221-08 Carmel, IN	2.0	1.5	876	$1,499	$1.71	1d	1	1.01mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit 220-06 Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	876	$1,499	$1.71	1d	1	1.01mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit 220-03 Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	876	$1,429	$1.63	1d	1	1.01mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit T-203 Carmel, IN	3.0	1.5	1280	$2,199	$1.72	7d	1	1.01mi
221 E Main St Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$2,099	$2.08	1d	8	1.04mi
1685 E 116th St Carmel, IN	2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$2,475	$2.77	1d	28	1.11mi
11405 Central Dr W Carmel, IN	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,600	$1.85	1d	1	1.17mi
13415 Highpointe Blvd Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	728	$1,518	$2.08	1d	14	1.21mi
1825 Jefferson Dr W Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1350	$2,570	$1.90	1d	24	1.23mi
741 N Rangeline Rd Carmel, IN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,275	$1.50	1d	1	1.30mi
525 End DR Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,380	$2.49	1d	13	1.33mi
945 Mohawk Hills Dr Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1210	$1,947	$1.61	1d	33	1.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $268 · $3,216/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $217,500 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $217,500 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $217,500 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $217,500 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $217,500 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $217,500 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $217,500 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $217,500 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $217,500 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $217,500 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $217,500 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $217,500 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $217,500 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $217,500 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    status Pending 1019-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1019 chars)

    LOCATION is EVERYTHING! This desirable, low-maintenance end-unit condo offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a layout designed for both privacy and comfort. The split floor plan features spacious bedrooms - each with its own walk-in closet, and each with their own dedicated bathroom. Unwind on your screened-in patio overlooking a tranquil pond, perfect for peaceful mornings or quiet evenings. Recent updates include: Upgraded interior plumbing lines that have been brought up to code, and updated electrical outlets were also added for code reasons - 220-volts were added for the oven, and the dryer outlet received a 4-pin plug. Additionally, a new side window was installed in the primary bedroom. This condo combines comfort and convenience with the opportunity to add your own personal touches. Best of all, the location is unbeatable-walkable to restaurants, parks, trails, galleries, community events, AND the neighborhood pool & clubhouse. Don't wait-schedule your showing today before this one is SOLD!

16. 2026-04-01
    listed $217,500 Active 1019-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1019 chars)

    LOCATION is EVERYTHING! This desirable, low-maintenance end-unit condo offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a layout designed for both privacy and comfort. The split floor plan features spacious bedrooms - each with its own walk-in closet, and each with their own dedicated bathroom. Unwind on your screened-in patio overlooking a tranquil pond, perfect for peaceful mornings or quiet evenings. Recent updates include: Upgraded interior plumbing lines that have been brought up to code, and updated electrical outlets were also added for code reasons - 220-volts were added for the oven, and the dryer outlet received a 4-pin plug. Additionally, a new side window was installed in the primary bedroom. This condo combines comfort and convenience with the opportunity to add your own personal touches. Best of all, the location is unbeatable-walkable to restaurants, parks, trails, galleries, community events, AND the neighborhood pool & clubhouse. Don't wait-schedule your showing today before this one is SOLD!

17. 2025-10-24
    soldstatus $199,000 Closed 1019-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1019 chars)

    LOCATION is EVERYTHING! This desirable, low-maintenance end-unit condo offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a layout designed for both privacy and comfort. The split floor plan features spacious bedrooms - each with its own walk-in closet, and each with their own dedicated bathroom. Unwind on your screened-in patio overlooking a tranquil pond, perfect for peaceful mornings or quiet evenings. Recent updates include: Upgraded interior plumbing lines that have been brought up to code, and updated electrical outlets were also added for code reasons - 220-volts were added for the oven, and the dryer outlet received a 4-pin plug. Additionally, a new side window was installed in the primary bedroom. This condo combines comfort and convenience with the opportunity to add your own personal touches. Best of all, the location is unbeatable-walkable to restaurants, parks, trails, galleries, community events, AND the neighborhood pool & clubhouse. Don't wait-schedule your showing today before this one is SOLD!

18. 2025-10-04
    status Pending 1019-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1019 chars)

    LOCATION is EVERYTHING! This desirable, low-maintenance end-unit condo offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a layout designed for both privacy and comfort. The split floor plan features spacious bedrooms - each with its own walk-in closet, and each with their own dedicated bathroom. Unwind on your screened-in patio overlooking a tranquil pond, perfect for peaceful mornings or quiet evenings. Recent updates include: Upgraded interior plumbing lines that have been brought up to code, and updated electrical outlets were also added for code reasons - 220-volts were added for the oven, and the dryer outlet received a 4-pin plug. Additionally, a new side window was installed in the primary bedroom. This condo combines comfort and convenience with the opportunity to add your own personal touches. Best of all, the location is unbeatable-walkable to restaurants, parks, trails, galleries, community events, AND the neighborhood pool & clubhouse. Don't wait-schedule your showing today before this one is SOLD!

19. 2025-09-05
    listed $210,000 Active 1019-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1019 chars)

    LOCATION is EVERYTHING! This desirable, low-maintenance end-unit condo offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a layout designed for both privacy and comfort. The split floor plan features spacious bedrooms - each with its own walk-in closet, and each with their own dedicated bathroom. Unwind on your screened-in patio overlooking a tranquil pond, perfect for peaceful mornings or quiet evenings. Recent updates include: Upgraded interior plumbing lines that have been brought up to code, and updated electrical outlets were also added for code reasons - 220-volts were added for the oven, and the dryer outlet received a 4-pin plug. Additionally, a new side window was installed in the primary bedroom. This condo combines comfort and convenience with the opportunity to add your own personal touches. Best of all, the location is unbeatable-walkable to restaurants, parks, trails, galleries, community events, AND the neighborhood pool & clubhouse. Don't wait-schedule your showing today before this one is SOLD!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,183
• − Property taxes: −$3,262
• − Insurance: −$1,088
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − HOA: −$3,216
• − Depreciation: −$6,327
• Taxable loss: −$2,948
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$707
• After-tax cash flow: $1,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Clay Schools
• NCES district ID: 1801200
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $102,347
• Composite: 63.54/100
• National rank: #608
• State rank: #1 of 301 in IN

Livability — Carmel

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carmel, IN
• County: Hamilton County · 337,479 people
• City population: 99,910
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 51,515
• Household income: $132,085
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1216.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,938 people
• By 2030: 417,496 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 486,684 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 549,805 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 687,078 · +79.9%
• By 2100: 754,495 · +97.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Asian 10% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.0% · R 52.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.2pp toward D · 2008: -22.2pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.06%
• Current HPI: 221.9087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.47%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+3.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $217,500 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Sold (MLS) $199,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-04 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Listed $210,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $284 · +72.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.