16029 Circle Dr · Markham, IL 60428

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,249 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1959 3,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Solid Brick Ranch priced below market. Owner wants quick sell. Home needs TLC. Electric has been upgraded & Roof in good condition. This is a great starter home, or fix & flip. This deal wont last long. Hurray & Make your offer. 203K or Conventional. Home being sold As-Is.

Key facts

• 3,000 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $967 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 10.2% in Markham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#186 in IL, #3,539 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, employment D.
• Bremen Chsd 228 (suburban): math 15% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #468 of 620 in IL (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.08%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,105
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2732 Circle Dr	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,269 (+2%)	3mo	$125,000	$99	88
16047 Cambridge Ct	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,066 (-15%)	5mo	$196,800	$185	69
16165 Oxford Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,061 (-15%)	3mo	$154,900	$146	63
2220 W 158th St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+4%)	1mo	$179,000	$138	63
16101 Richmond Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-12%)	8mo	$172,000	$156	62
2244 W 157th Pl	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-2%)	1mo	$225,000	$184	62
16557 Plymouth Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+4%)	4mo	$198,000	$152	58
16364 California Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,133 (-9%)	5mo	$160,000	$141	56
2224 W 157th St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,183 (-5%)	3mo	$100,000	$85	55
2352 W 157th Pl	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,068 (-14%)	7mo	$155,000	$145	45
2223 W 156th Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,130 (-10%)	3mo	$129,150	$114	43
16614 Plymouth Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,117 (-11%)	4mo	$75,000	$67	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $110,725
• Equity at exit: $80,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.9%
• Equity multiple: 12.05×
• Total profit: $278,034
• Equity at exit: $174,656

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60428

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,336 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$370 /mo · $4,440/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $967

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,113

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,286	-5% $1,255	+0% $967	+5% $941	+10% $916
Rent	-10% $782	-5% $874	+0% $967	+5% $1,059	+10% $1,151
Rate	-1.0pp $1,012	-0.5pp $990	base $967	+0.5pp $943	+1.0pp $920

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16752 Artesian Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	867	$2,500	$2.88	2d	1	0.93mi
16751 Crane Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	2d	1	1.05mi
16901 Orchard Ridge Ave Hazel Crest, IL	4.0	2.0	1406	$2,700	$1.92	2d	1	1.16mi
2308 170th St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	2.0	1020	$2,400	$2.35	2d	1	1.26mi
16125 Marshfield Ave Markham, IL	3.0	1.0	1043	$2,400	$2.30	2d	1	1.31mi
2173 171st St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1159	$2,350	$2.03	2d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-12
   status Active
3. 2025-11-20
   status Pending
4. 2025-11-20
   status Active
5. 2025-11-20
   status Pending
6. 2025-11-06
   price
7. 2025-11-06
   listed $89,900 Active
8. 2025-11-06
   historical
9. 2025-11-03
   price
10. 2025-10-23
    price
11. 2025-09-24
    listed Active
12. 2024-10-31
    historical
13. 2024-10-12
    listed Active
14. 2006-09-18
    soldstatus $105,000
15. 2002-06-20
    soldstatus $70,000
16. 2001-08-15
    soldstatus $40,500
17. 1982-12-17
    soldstatus $32,000
18. 1982-12-17
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,440 · $370/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,440 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$4,440
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,243
• − Management: −$2,243
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $11,008
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,642
• After-tax cash flow: $8,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bremen Chsd 228
• NCES district ID: 1707050
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 15.32/100
• National rank: #9327
• State rank: #468 of 620 in IL

Livability — Markham

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #186
• US rank: #3539

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Markham, IL
• City population: 10,980
• Population (ZIP): 10,980

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 17% White 11% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.63%
• Current HPI: 302.333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+180.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Listed $89,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-12 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2001-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records
• 1982-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 1982-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $4,440 · +183.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.