20174 San Juan Dr · Detroit, MI 48221

$78,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 725 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 344 Days on market

Built 1950 9,583 sqft lot $108/sqft · 8% above area Est $72k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home in attractive neighborhood with basement and garage. Home is currently rented at $1,200.00. BATVAI.

Key facts

• Garage
• Basement
• Move in ready

Tags

• BASEMENT
• GARAGE
• MOVE IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $957 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 18 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.57%
• DSCR: 3.34
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,925
• List price: $78,000
• Delta: 8.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1370 Bertha St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	707 (-2%)	1mo	$120,000	$170	74
630 Stratford Rd	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	742 (+2%)	0mo	$210,000	$283	61
1410 Bertha St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	667 (-8%)	9mo	$112,500	$169	59
19800 Woodingham Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	780 (+8%)	10mo	$67,500	$87	59
19817 Monica St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	790 (+9%)	13mo	$41,000	$52	56
19788 San Juan Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	795 (+10%)	13mo	$29,900	$38	55
20817 Garden Ln	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	725 (0%)	10mo	$77,000	$106	54
20233 Roselawn St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	829 (+14%)	2mo	$33,000	$40	54
1412 Fielding St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	686 (-5%)	13mo	$188,500	$275	53
19486 Santa Barbara Dr	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	796 (+10%)	14mo	$115,000	$144	48
19435 Santa Barbara Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (+9%)	14mo	$93,000	$117	46
21047 Bethlawn Blvd	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	814 (+12%)	13mo	$79,500	$98	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $49,210
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $125,104
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48221

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,640/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $957

Break-even live

Break-even rent $732

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,001	-5% $979	+0% $957	+5% $935	+10% $913
Rent	-10% $803	-5% $880	+0% $957	+5% $1,033	+10% $1,110
Rate	-1.0pp $996	-0.5pp $977	base $957	+0.5pp $936	+1.0pp $916

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22111 Woodward Ave Ferndale, MI	2.0	1.0	816	$3,355	$4.11	17d	1	1.21mi
1291 W State Fair Ave Detroit, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	13d	2	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 344 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 343 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 341 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 339 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 338 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 335 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,000 Active 334 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $78,000 Active 333 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $78,000 Active 330 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,000 Active 329 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 327 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 326 DOM
13. 2025-07-09
    listed $78,000 Active 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Home in attractive neighborhood with basement and garage. Home is currently rented at $1,200.00. BATVAI.

14. 2025-07-09
    listed $78,000 Active 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Home in attractive neighborhood with basement and garage. Home is currently rented at $1,200.00. BATVAI.

15. 2025-07-09
    listed $78,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Home in attractive neighborhood with basement and garage. Home is currently rented at $1,200.00. BATVAI.

16. 2025-04-07
    historical
17. 2025-04-07
    historical
18. 2024-11-06
    status Active
19. 2024-11-06
    status Active
20. 2024-10-21
    status Pending
21. 2024-10-21
    status Pending
22. 2024-06-17
    listed $78,000 Active
23. 2024-06-17
    listed $78,000 Active
24. 2021-06-21
    soldstatus $66,400
25. 2021-03-26
    soldstatus $40,168 Sold
26. 2021-03-26
    soldstatus $40,168 Closed
27. 2021-02-09
    status Pending
28. 2021-02-09
    status Pending
29. 2021-01-11
    listed $45,900 Active
30. 2021-01-11
    listed $45,900 Active
31. 2016-09-14
    status Pending
32. 2016-09-14
    status Pending
33. 2016-09-14
    soldstatus $22,500 Sold
34. 2016-09-14
    soldstatus $22,500 Closed
35. 2016-08-05
    status Active
36. 2016-08-02
    historical
37. 2016-07-19
    listed $26,900 Active
38. 2016-07-19
    listed $26,900 Active
39. 2016-07-18
    historical
40. 2016-07-18
    historical
41. 2016-07-15
    status Active
42. 2016-07-15
    historical
43. 2016-06-22
    price $26,900
44. 2016-06-20
    price $26,900
45. 2016-04-15
    listed $34,900 Active
46. 2015-12-04
    price $34,900
47. 2015-12-04
    price $29,900
48. 2015-09-19
    listed $34,900 Active
49. 2015-05-26
    historical
50. 2015-05-25
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,640
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $10,916
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,620
• After-tax cash flow: $8,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 41,392
• Household income: $57,878
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1646.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% White 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -433.14%
• Current HPI: 280.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+110.8% since first listed

46 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-09 Listed $78,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-09 Listed $78,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $78,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-06 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-11-06 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-10-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-17 Listed $78,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-06-17 Listed $78,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $66,400 Public Records
• 2021-03-26 Sold (MLS) $40,168 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-03-26 Sold (MLS) $40,168 REALCOMP
• 2021-02-09 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-02-09 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-01-11 Listed $45,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-01-11 Listed $45,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-09-14 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-09-14 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2016-09-14 Sold (MLS) $22,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-09-14 Sold (MLS) $22,500 REALCOMP
• 2016-08-05 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2016-08-02 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-07-19 Listed $26,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-07-19 Listed $26,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-07-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-07-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-07-15 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2016-07-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-06-22 Price Changed $26,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-20 Price Changed $26,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-04-15 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-12-04 Price Changed $29,900 REALCOMP
• 2015-12-04 Price Changed $34,900 REALCOMP
• 2015-09-19 Listed $34,900 REALCOMP
• 2015-05-26 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-05-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-05-10 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2015-05-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-02-25 Listed $6,800 REALCOMP
• 2015-02-25 Listed $6,800 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1995-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $19,424 Public Records
• 1994-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $19,424 Public Records
• 1993-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,640 · -9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.