10221 Circle West Dr #90 · Kerrtown, PA 16335

$36,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 1985 $31/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculately maintained 3-bedroom, 2 full bath mobile home with located in a desirable Woodlands Mobile Home Park in Vernon Township. This extremely well-cared-for home offers an open floor plan with a very spacious living room, dining area, and countertop seating perfect for stools and entertaining. Home is bigger than it looks. Built-ins in bedrooms for extra storage and keeping things tidy. Enjoy the enclosed front porch along with a small deck area for relaxing outdoors. Situated on a lot that backs up to the woods for added privacy, with mature trees throughout the park creating a peaceful setting. Very reasonable lot rent of only $335 per month includes water and sewage. Conveniently

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Enclosed front porch
• Mature trees

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• BACKS UP TO THE WOODS
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-S; Landscaped lot

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Metal roof
• Construction: Metal siding
• Exterior features: Storage; Shed(s); Enclosed porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven, gas range, microwave, refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 9 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Gas oven, gas range, microwave, refrigerator; Carpet and vinyl flooring; No basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $36,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$106,885) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $36k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $674 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $36k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#593 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment F, housing F.
• Crawford Central SD (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #367 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $249 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $36,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.23%
• DSCR: 4.57
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,885
• List price: $36,000
• Delta: -66.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10147 Circle West	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,081 (-6%)	2mo	$55,000	$51	80
10356 Circle West #49	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+2%)	12mo	$99,000	$84	80
10405 Circle East #35	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,124 (-2%)	16mo	$65,000	$58	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $37,101
• Equity at exit: $5,368

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.69×
• Total profit: $87,631
• Equity at exit: $3,113

Cash invested: $10,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16335

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$189
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $469/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $674

Break-even live

Break-even rent $307

Max offer price $36,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $694	-5% $684	+0% $674	+5% $664	+10% $654
Rent	-10% $582	-5% $628	+0% $674	+5% $720	+10% $766
Rate	-1.0pp $692	-0.5pp $683	base $674	+0.5pp $665	+1.0pp $655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,000
• Closing costs: $1,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10795 Timber Crest Dr Meadville, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	938	$1,425	$1.52	44d	8	0.56mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $36,000 Active 937-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $469 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $519 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$50/yr (+$4/mo · 10.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,017
• − Property taxes: −$469
• − Insurance: −$180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,114
• − Management: −$1,114
• − Depreciation: −$1,047
• Taxable income: $7,985
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,916
• After-tax cash flow: $6,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crawford Central SD
• NCES district ID: 4207080
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $41,837
• Composite: 33.21/100
• National rank: #5530
• State rank: #367 of 539 in PA

Livability — Kerrtown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #593
• US rank: #5654

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Crawford County · 27,175 people
• Metro: Meadville, PA
• Population (ZIP): 27,175
• Household income: $57,591
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 953.0

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,399 people
• By 2030: 77,977 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 70,659 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 63,841 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 50,198 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 37,898 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 30.0% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+37.2 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+19.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.80%
• Current HPI: 272.4095
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Meadville, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-05-15 Listed $36,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

-6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $469 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.