3033 Willow Lane Dr · Montgomery, AL 36109

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1979 10,018 sqft lot $100/sqft · 5% above area Est $156k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Incredible home in Forest Hills featuring 3-bedrooms, 2-baths with a vaulted great room with a cozy fireplace, built-in cabinetry, and gas logs. The split floor plan includes a master suite with a walk-in closet and nice bath w/ shower and modern sliding glass doors. Home includes two additional bedrooms with a shared bath. Add some TLC to make it a nice fit for you! The kitchen boasts tile flooring, a breakfast nook, recessed lighting, and a breakfast bar. A glassed sunroom off the kitchen offers breathtaking mountain-like views. The laundry room leads to a wooden deck, and there’s extra storage underneath the sunroom! Sold As Is. ALL OFFERS FOR THIS PROPERTY MUST BE SUBMITTED VIA TH

Key facts

• Built-in cabinetry
• Vaulted great room
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• VAULTED GREAT ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• MODERN SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with 1 parking pad
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Wood siding
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered porch; Fully fenced yard; In-ground sprinklers; Storage

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Carpet, tile, and wood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 6.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities D-.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Flowers Elementary School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #508 of 627 statewide, top 84%, 394 students, 74% FRL); Goodwyn Middle School (math 0% / reading 16%, grade F, #239 of 257 statewide, top 93%, 808 students, 84% FRL); Lee High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #276 of 305 statewide, top 95%, 1,374 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,853 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.97%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,488
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: -10.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 Forest Hills Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-6%)	1mo	$55,500	$44	78
2933 Willow Lane Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,234 (-8%)	7mo	$121,000	$98	73
3 Kent St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-3%)	1mo	$102,750	$79	67
45 Kent St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,338 (-0%)	3mo	$94,000	$70	64
137 Oak Forest Dr	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,183 (-12%)	0mo	$47,000	$40	63
13 Bradley Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,264 (-6%)	6mo	$110,000	$87	61
3243 Durham Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,363 (+1%)	1mo	$150,000	$110	60
47 Salem Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,419 (+6%)	3mo	$162,500	$115	57
3602 Little John Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,286 (-4%)	4mo	$65,000	$51	54
49 Marlborough St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-7%)	6mo	$115,900	$93	52
238 Easthaven Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-12%)	5mo	$77,900	$66	48
2627 Geneva St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,526 (+14%)	4mo	$83,000	$54	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-6,404
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $12,863
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36109

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,353 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $652/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,035

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $327	-5% $289	+0% $251	+5% $213	+10% $175
Rent	-10% $144	-5% $197	+0% $251	+5% $304	+10% $358
Rate	-1.0pp $319	-0.5pp $285	base $251	+0.5pp $216	+1.0pp $180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
311 Bradley Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1104	$825	$0.75	45d	1	0.19mi
401 Ridgewood Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,195	$0.79	22d	1	0.22mi
122 Oak Forest Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1092	$975	$0.89	22d	1	0.23mi
3233 Hillcrest Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,395	$1.09	22d	1	0.28mi
3309 Hillcrest Ln Unit 1043908P Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1625	$2,885	$1.78	22d	1	0.37mi
3329 Vermont Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.5	1465	$1,395	$0.95	15d	1	0.41mi
18 Oak Forest Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,050	$0.66	22d	1	0.42mi
15 Bradley Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,500	$1.10	22d	1	0.43mi
3319 Willow Lane Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,200	$1.16	45d	1	0.44mi
3334 Cottonwood Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,295	$1.26	15d	1	0.45mi
7 Bradley Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1529	$1,500	$0.98	15d	1	0.47mi
239 Forest Hills Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.5	1500	$1,450	$0.97	22d	1	0.52mi
7 Calhoun Rd Unit B Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	961	$850	$0.88	45d	1	0.57mi
3515 Cottonwood Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.5	1246	$1,350	$1.08	45d	1	0.59mi
926 Green Ridge Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,381	$0.83	15d	1	0.59mi
3136 Harrison Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.5	1355	$1,025	$0.76	45d	1	0.65mi
3602 Little John Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.0	1286	$1,400	$1.09	22d	1	0.69mi
3323 Bedford Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,200	$1.06	22d	1	0.73mi
2229 Madison Ave Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1100	$625	$0.57	45d	1	0.73mi
118 Nottingham Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,275	$0.95	45d	1	0.74mi
108 Calhoun Rd Unit 108B Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1350	$750	$0.56	45d	1	0.75mi
3346 Bedford Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,295	$1.14	15d	1	0.77mi
2113 Brewton St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1363	$1,150	$0.84	45d	1	0.77mi
3359 Bedford Ln Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1786	$1,600	$0.90	15d	1	0.79mi
2310 Yancey Ave Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1212	$1,250	$1.03	45d	1	0.79mi
2243 Winona Ave Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1492	$1,225	$0.82	22d	1	0.80mi
817 Dumont Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,800	$1.10	15d	1	0.81mi
67 Holliday Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	0.81mi
688 Joryne Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	45d	1	0.82mi
167 E Salem Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,050	$0.62	45d	1	0.85mi
844 Sir Michael Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1502	$1,650	$1.10	45d	1	0.87mi
3456 Harrison Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	45d	1	0.87mi
200 Eton Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.5	1500	$895	$0.60	15d	1	0.88mi
3318 Habersham Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,250	$1.10	15d	1	0.89mi
186 E Salem Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,195	$1.15	22d	1	0.89mi
2004 Capitol Ave Unit 1043879P Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.5	1797	$3,518	$1.96	15d	1	0.92mi
3105 Pelzer Ave Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,425	$0.89	45d	1	0.94mi
1117 Karen Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,195	$0.91	45d	1	0.94mi
860 Greg Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,295	$0.93	15d	1	0.95mi
2769 Pelzer Ave Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,325	$0.82	45d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $134,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,900 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    price $139,900 787-char remark
18. 2026-03-20
    listed $149,900 Active 787-char remark
19. 2025-06-13
    price $162,000
20. 2025-05-20
    price $169,000
21. 2025-01-28
    price $170,000
22. 2024-12-10
    price $180,000
23. 2024-11-19
    price $185,000
24. 2024-10-14
    price $189,500
25. 2024-09-25
    listed $191,499 Active
26. 2023-04-06
    status Pending
27. 2023-04-06
    soldstatus $162,000
28. 2023-04-05
    soldstatus $162,000 Closed
29. 2023-02-24
    historical Contingent
30. 2023-02-02
    listed $159,000 Active
31. 2022-12-28
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed
32. 2022-12-27
    status Pending
33. 2022-12-06
    price $135,900
34. 2022-06-30
    listed $139,900 Active
35. 2019-08-07
    soldstatus $93,000
36. 2019-08-07
    soldstatus $93,000
37. 2019-05-21
    listed $93,700
38. 2011-07-08
    soldstatus $100,000
39. 2011-06-29
    soldstatus $100,000
40. 2010-10-06
    listed $109,900
41. 2007-08-22
    soldstatus $73,627
42. 2003-05-12
    listed $88,900
43. 1999-05-18
    listed $84,900
44. 1998-10-29
    soldstatus $82,900
45. 1998-09-01
    listed $82,900
46. 1998-04-01
    listed $84,500
47. 1998-01-26
    listed $86,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $652 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $652 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$652
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,299
• − Management: −$1,299
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $831
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$199
• After-tax cash flow: $2,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 190,016 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 23,581
• Household income: $59,193
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1039.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.64%
• Current HPI: 149.3867
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+56.0% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $134,900 MAAR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $139,900 MAAR
• 2026-03-20 Listed $149,900 MAAR
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $162,000 MAAR
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $169,000 MAAR
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $170,000 MAAR
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $180,000 MAAR
• 2024-11-19 Price Changed $185,000 MAAR
• 2024-10-14 Price Changed $189,500 MAAR
• 2024-09-25 Listed $191,499 MAAR
• 2023-04-06 Pending — MAAR
• 2023-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-05 Sold (MLS) $162,000 MAAR
• 2023-02-24 Contingent — MAAR
• 2023-02-02 Listed $159,000 MAAR
• 2022-12-28 Sold (MLS) $135,000 MAAR
• 2022-12-27 Pending — MAAR
• 2022-12-06 Price Changed $135,900 MAAR
• 2022-06-30 Listed $139,900 MAAR
• 2019-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-07 Sold (MLS) $93,000 MAAR
• 2019-05-21 Listed $93,700 MAAR
• 2011-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2011-06-29 Sold (MLS) $100,000 MAAR
• 2010-10-06 Listed $109,900 MAAR
• 2007-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $73,627 Public Records
• 2003-05-12 Listed $88,900 MAAR
• 1999-05-18 Listed $84,900 MAAR
• 1998-10-29 Sold (MLS) $82,900 MAAR
• 1998-09-01 Listed $82,900 MAAR
• 1998-04-01 Listed $84,500 MAAR
• 1998-01-26 Listed $86,500 MAAR

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $652 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.