2236 Gondola Dr · Palmer Ranch, FL 34238

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 345 Days on market

Built 1977 3,601 sqft lot $175/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +0.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute mobile home featuring an updated kitchen with New high-tech stainless appliances, and a giant farmhouse stainless sink. Minutes from world famous Siesta Key and surrounded by your favorite store and restaurants. Lots of storage in the shed/workshop, laundry room, fully covered parking. Other features include Olympic size pool, hot tub shuffleboard courts and lots of fun to be had at the Clubhouse. Seller will hold note. Motivated seller

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Large bedroom
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• SIDE PATIO
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LARGE BEDROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• LONG CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-8.2%/yr); 488 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $207 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-865 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 345 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $155k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 345 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.84%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.56% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,978
• Equity at exit: $40,729

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $21,306
• Equity at exit: $45,663

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34238

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: -8.2%
• Active inventory: 488
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,930 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,261/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 345 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 344 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 342 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 340 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 339 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 337 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 336 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 334 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $155,000 Active 331 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 330 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 329 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 328 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 327 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    price $155,000 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Cute mobile home featuring an updated kitchen with New high-tech stainless appliances, and a giant farmhouse stainless sink. Minutes from world famous Siesta Key and surrounded by your favorite store and restaurants. Lots of storage in the shed/workshop, laundry room, fully covered parking. Other features include Olympic size pool, hot tub shuffleboard courts and lots of fun to be had at the Clubhouse. Seller will hold note. Motivated seller

15. 2026-02-10
    price $169,000 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Cute mobile home featuring an updated kitchen with New high-tech stainless appliances, and a giant farmhouse stainless sink. Minutes from world famous Siesta Key and surrounded by your favorite store and restaurants. Lots of storage in the shed/workshop, laundry room, fully covered parking. Other features include Olympic size pool, hot tub shuffleboard courts and lots of fun to be had at the Clubhouse. Seller will hold note. Motivated seller

16. 2026-01-01
    status Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Cute mobile home featuring an updated kitchen with New high-tech stainless appliances, and a giant farmhouse stainless sink. Minutes from world famous Siesta Key and surrounded by your favorite store and restaurants. Lots of storage in the shed/workshop, laundry room, fully covered parking. Other features include Olympic size pool, hot tub shuffleboard courts and lots of fun to be had at the Clubhouse. Seller will hold note. Motivated seller

17. 2025-12-31
    historical 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Cute mobile home featuring an updated kitchen with New high-tech stainless appliances, and a giant farmhouse stainless sink. Minutes from world famous Siesta Key and surrounded by your favorite store and restaurants. Lots of storage in the shed/workshop, laundry room, fully covered parking. Other features include Olympic size pool, hot tub shuffleboard courts and lots of fun to be had at the Clubhouse. Seller will hold note. Motivated seller

18. 2025-09-30
    price $199,999 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Cute mobile home featuring an updated kitchen with New high-tech stainless appliances, and a giant farmhouse stainless sink. Minutes from world famous Siesta Key and surrounded by your favorite store and restaurants. Lots of storage in the shed/workshop, laundry room, fully covered parking. Other features include Olympic size pool, hot tub shuffleboard courts and lots of fun to be had at the Clubhouse. Seller will hold note. Motivated seller

19. 2025-07-07
    listed $250,000 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Cute mobile home featuring an updated kitchen with New high-tech stainless appliances, and a giant farmhouse stainless sink. Minutes from world famous Siesta Key and surrounded by your favorite store and restaurants. Lots of storage in the shed/workshop, laundry room, fully covered parking. Other features include Olympic size pool, hot tub shuffleboard courts and lots of fun to be had at the Clubhouse. Seller will hold note. Motivated seller

20. 2013-10-31
    soldstatus $68,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,261 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,261 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,261
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$269
• After-tax cash flow: $3,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palmer Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 22,808
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,821
• Household income: $97,926
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.56%
• Current HPI: 232.3872
• Rent YoY: ▼ -8.18%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+125.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $199,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-07 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $68,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,261 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.