15829 W Rosewood Way · Surprise, AZ 85374

$389,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1997 7,005 sqft lot $219/sqft · at area comps Est $431k · 10% under $160/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Original Owner Motivated to Sell! Incredible Value in The Grand a 45 plus Adult Community! Recent Solar Panels installed Owned Not Leased for incredible electric savings included! Includes New Windows, New Sliding Door, New Roof, and All Furnishings Included! 3-bedroom, 3-bath, home office, attached Casita with seperate entrance and private bath for multi generational living, or rental. The main home features an open floor plan with spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat, while additional bedrooms offer versatility. Enjoy outdoor space ideal for entertaining or relaxing in Arizona's beautiful weather. Seller loss is buyer gain!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Attached casita
• Bamboo flooring

Tags

• ATTACHED CASITA
• BAMBOO FLOORING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $299k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 399 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $390k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $298,934 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.99%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $431,040
• List price: $389,900
• Delta: -9.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20304 N Windy Walk Ct	0.03mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,870 (+5%)	0mo	$335,000	$179	79
15905 W LA Paloma Dr	0.12mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,934 (+9%)	2mo	$445,000	$230	71
16045 W Verbena Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,853 (+4%)	1mo	$390,000	$210	68
20595 N Garden Ct	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,870 (+5%)	2mo	$434,000	$232	65
20716 N Shadow Mountain Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,726 (-3%)	2mo	$412,500	$239	60
15810 W LA Paloma Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,035 (+14%)	1mo	$409,000	$201	58
20168 N Shadow Mountain Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,870 (+5%)	2mo	$519,000	$278	54
15778 W Cimarron Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,019 (+13%)	0mo	$515,000	$255	50
15478 W Moonlight Way	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-4%)	2mo	$414,000	$243	49
19877 N Crimson Ridge Way	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (-9%)	0mo	$420,000	$258	42
16461 W Juniper Ct	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,958 (+10%)	0mo	$400,000	$204	39
16446 W Century Plant Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,019 (+13%)	1mo	$479,000	$237	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-83,094
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-119,775
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,218

Max offer price $357,998

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20054 N Painted Sky Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1598	$3,200	$2.00	24d	1	0.24mi
15619 W Vista Grande Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1370	$3,500	$2.55	43d	1	0.25mi
15628 W Hidden Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1627	$3,600	$2.21	43d	1	0.31mi
15913 W Clearwater Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1546	$3,000	$1.94	43d	1	0.37mi
16149 W Quail Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	43d	1	0.44mi
16171 W Wildflower Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1278	$3,200	$2.50	18d	1	0.51mi
16248 W Tuscany Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1909	$2,500	$1.31	43d	1	0.55mi
20046 N Hearthstone Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1934	$3,800	$1.96	43d	1	0.69mi
15448 W Moonlight Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1262	$4,200	$3.33	43d	1	0.70mi
21640 N Casa Royale Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1894	$2,195	$1.16	16d	1	0.98mi
21531 N Black Bear Lodge Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,595	$0.86	17d	1	1.02mi
15033 W Home Run Dr Unit 1545708P Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,419	$1.73	15d	1	1.15mi
15438 W Domingo Ln Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1438	$2,100	$1.46	24d	1	1.16mi
16426 W Boulder Vista Dr Unit 1546454P Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$4,436	$2.73	15d	1	1.17mi
15104 W Cactus Ridge Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1512	$3,850	$2.55	43d	1	1.18mi
15732 W Spring Tree Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1934	$3,500	$1.81	43d	1	1.21mi
15082 W Cactus Ridge Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1645	$3,500	$2.13	43d	1	1.22mi
15042 W Cactus Ridge Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,800	$1.98	43d	1	1.26mi
18121 N Key Estrella Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1909	$3,500	$1.83	43d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $389,900 Pending 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 51 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 50 DOM
13. 2026-05-09
    price $389,900 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Original Owner Motivated to Sell! Incredible Value in The Grand a 45 plus Adult Community! Recent Solar Panels installed Owned Not Leased for incredible electric savings included! Includes New Windows, New Sliding Door, New Roof, and All Furnishings Included! 3-bedroom, 3-bath, home office, attached Casita with seperate entrance and private bath for multi generational living, or rental. The main home features an open floor plan with spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat, while additional bedrooms offer versatility. Enjoy outdoor space ideal for entertaining or relaxing in Arizona's beautiful weather. Seller loss is buyer gain!

14. 2026-04-27
    status Active 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Original Owner Motivated to Sell! Incredible Value in The Grand a 45 plus Adult Community! Recent Solar Panels installed Owned Not Leased for incredible electric savings included! Includes New Windows, New Sliding Door, New Roof, and All Furnishings Included! 3-bedroom, 3-bath, home office, attached Casita with seperate entrance and private bath for multi generational living, or rental. The main home features an open floor plan with spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat, while additional bedrooms offer versatility. Enjoy outdoor space ideal for entertaining or relaxing in Arizona's beautiful weather. Seller loss is buyer gain!

15. 2026-04-17
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Original Owner Motivated to Sell! Incredible Value in The Grand a 45 plus Adult Community! Recent Solar Panels installed Owned Not Leased for incredible electric savings included! Includes New Windows, New Sliding Door, New Roof, and All Furnishings Included! 3-bedroom, 3-bath, home office, attached Casita with seperate entrance and private bath for multi generational living, or rental. The main home features an open floor plan with spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat, while additional bedrooms offer versatility. Enjoy outdoor space ideal for entertaining or relaxing in Arizona's beautiful weather. Seller loss is buyer gain!

16. 2026-04-11
    listed $399,000 Active 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Original Owner Motivated to Sell! Incredible Value in The Grand a 45 plus Adult Community! Recent Solar Panels installed Owned Not Leased for incredible electric savings included! Includes New Windows, New Sliding Door, New Roof, and All Furnishings Included! 3-bedroom, 3-bath, home office, attached Casita with seperate entrance and private bath for multi generational living, or rental. The main home features an open floor plan with spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat, while additional bedrooms offer versatility. Enjoy outdoor space ideal for entertaining or relaxing in Arizona's beautiful weather. Seller loss is buyer gain!

17. 2026-04-11
    historical

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Original Owner Motivated to Sell! Incredible Value in The Grand a 45 plus Adult Community! Recent Solar Panels installed Owned Not Leased for incredible electric savings included! Includes New Windows, New Sliding Door, New Roof, and All Furnishings Included! 3-bedroom, 3-bath, home office, attached Casita with seperate entrance and private bath for multi generational living, or rental. The main home features an open floor plan with spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat, while additional bedrooms offer versatility. Enjoy outdoor space ideal for entertaining or relaxing in Arizona's beautiful weather. Seller loss is buyer gain!

18. 2026-04-11
    price $399,000

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Original Owner Motivated to Sell! Incredible Value in The Grand a 45 plus Adult Community! Recent Solar Panels installed Owned Not Leased for incredible electric savings included! Includes New Windows, New Sliding Door, New Roof, and All Furnishings Included! 3-bedroom, 3-bath, home office, attached Casita with seperate entrance and private bath for multi generational living, or rental. The main home features an open floor plan with spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat, while additional bedrooms offer versatility. Enjoy outdoor space ideal for entertaining or relaxing in Arizona's beautiful weather. Seller loss is buyer gain!

19. 1997-12-22
    soldstatus $139,757
20. 1997-12-22
    soldstatus $139,757

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,100 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,573 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$473/yr (+$39/mo · 22.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,870
• − Management: −$2,870
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$9,020
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,165
• After-tax cash flow: $-2/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+179.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $389,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $399,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $399,000 ARMLS
• 1997-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $139,757 Public Records
• 1997-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $139,757 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,100 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.