168 Dunn Hollow Dr · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$143,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1981 0.25 ac lot $112/sqft · 13% above area Est $127k · 13% over $202/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home! This quaint and cute property offers the perfect blend of modern updates and charming features, making it an ideal choice for a variety of homeowners. Whether you're a first-time buyer, looking for a weekend getaway, or seeking a friendly neighborhood for your family, this house has it all. While the major updates have been completed, the interior is a blank canvas waiting for your personal touch. New roof, HVAC, deck, crawl space cleaned and sprayed, new showers in both bathrooms, and new garage door. Imagine creating a space that reflects your style and taste, making it truly yours. This lovely home is situated close to a variety of amenities: Two golf courses for the golf enthusiasts, Greers Ferry lake is ideal for fishing, boating, and enjoying beautiful lakeside views. Hiking and biking trails for those who love outdoor adventures. ATV Trails, explore the terrain and have some off-road fun. Don't miss out on this home. Check out our 3D tour and unbranded video.

Key facts

• New hvac
• Golf courses
• New deck

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• NEW DECK
• NEW SHOWERS
• NEW GARAGE DOOR
• GOLF COURSES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $526 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.7% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $308 of equity ($992 loan paydown + $-684 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $119k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,585 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.72%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,607
• List price: $143,500
• Delta: 13.34%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
171 Pine Knot Rd	0.12mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,334 (+4%)	1mo	$155,000	$116	81
111 Dunn Hollow Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,284 (0%)	13mo	$139,900	$109	80
112 Blase Line Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,362 (+6%)	3mo	$152,500	$112	79
108 Jonas Ct	0.21mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,296 (+1%)	1mo	$68,000	$52	78
105 Jonas Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+1%)	14mo	$240,000	$184	75
172 Dunn Hollow Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+9%)	11mo	$155,000	$110	74
109 Dunn Hollow Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	4mo	$48,000	$35	73
173 Dunn Hollow Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+7%)	15mo	$123,000	$89	73
211 Burnt Rock Falls Rd	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,394 (+9%)	1mo	$125,000	$90	67
121 Short Haven Ln	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,264 (-2%)	7mo	$92,000	$73	59
104 Shadow Ridge Ct	0.67mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,248 (-3%)	5mo	$119,025	$95	53
113 Shorthaven Ln	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,114 (-13%)	8mo	$147,500	$132	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $26,220
• Equity at exit: $38,282

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $81,595
• Equity at exit: $43,395

Cash invested: $40,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$753
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$202
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $526

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,334

Max offer price $143,500

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $608	-5% $567	+0% $526	+5% $486	+10% $445
Rent	-10% $368	-5% $447	+0% $526	+5% $605	+10% $684
Rate	-1.0pp $599	-0.5pp $563	base $526	+0.5pp $489	+1.0pp $451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,875
• Closing costs: $4,305
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	45d	1	0.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $202 · $2,424/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $143,500 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $143,500 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $143,500 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $143,500 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $143,500 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $143,500 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $143,500 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $143,500 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $143,500 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $143,500 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $143,500 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $143,500 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $143,500 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $143,500 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $143,500 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $143,500 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $143,500 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-04-11
    price $144,000 1008-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1008 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home! This quaint and cute property offers the perfect blend of modern updates and charming features, making it an ideal choice for a variety of homeowners. Whether you're a first-time buyer, looking for a weekend getaway, or seeking a friendly neighborhood for your family, this house has it all. While the major updates have been completed, the interior is a blank canvas waiting for your personal touch. New roof, HVAC, deck, crawl space cleaned and sprayed, new showers in both bathrooms, and new garage door. Imagine creating a space that reflects your style and taste, making it truly yours. This lovely home is situated close to a variety of amenities: Two golf courses for the golf enthusiasts, Greers Ferry lake is ideal for fishing, boating, and enjoying beautiful lakeside views. Hiking and biking trails for those who love outdoor adventures. ATV Trails, explore the terrain and have some off-road fun. Don't miss out on this home. Check out our 3D tour and unbranded video.

19. 2026-03-20
    listed $145,000 New Listing 1008-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1008 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home! This quaint and cute property offers the perfect blend of modern updates and charming features, making it an ideal choice for a variety of homeowners. Whether you're a first-time buyer, looking for a weekend getaway, or seeking a friendly neighborhood for your family, this house has it all. While the major updates have been completed, the interior is a blank canvas waiting for your personal touch. New roof, HVAC, deck, crawl space cleaned and sprayed, new showers in both bathrooms, and new garage door. Imagine creating a space that reflects your style and taste, making it truly yours. This lovely home is situated close to a variety of amenities: Two golf courses for the golf enthusiasts, Greers Ferry lake is ideal for fishing, boating, and enjoying beautiful lakeside views. Hiking and biking trails for those who love outdoor adventures. ATV Trails, explore the terrain and have some off-road fun. Don't miss out on this home. Check out our 3D tour and unbranded video.

20. 2024-05-16
    soldstatus $119,000
21. 2024-05-15
    status Under Contract 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Check out this charming home on 168 Dunn Hollow Drive in the exclusive Fairfield Bay. This home features three bedrooms and two baths with 1284 sqft. There are tons of area amenities such as swimming pools and playground areas for the kids. Only 5 mintues to the marina!

22. 2024-05-10
    soldstatus $119,000 Sold 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Check out this charming home on 168 Dunn Hollow Drive in the exclusive Fairfield Bay. This home features three bedrooms and two baths with 1284 sqft. There are tons of area amenities such as swimming pools and playground areas for the kids. Only 5 mintues to the marina!

23. 2024-05-10
    soldstatus $119,000

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Check out this charming home on 168 Dunn Hollow Drive in the exclusive Fairfield Bay. This home features three bedrooms and two baths with 1284 sqft. There are tons of area amenities such as swimming pools and playground areas for the kids. Only 5 mintues to the marina!

24. 2024-04-13
    historical Take Backups 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Check out this charming home on 168 Dunn Hollow Drive in the exclusive Fairfield Bay. This home features three bedrooms and two baths with 1284 sqft. There are tons of area amenities such as swimming pools and playground areas for the kids. Only 5 mintues to the marina!

25. 2024-04-12
    listed $109,000
26. 2024-03-13
    price $109,000 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Check out this charming home on 168 Dunn Hollow Drive in the exclusive Fairfield Bay. This home features three bedrooms and two baths with 1284 sqft. There are tons of area amenities such as swimming pools and playground areas for the kids. Only 5 mintues to the marina!

27. 2024-02-23
    price $114,000 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Check out this charming home on 168 Dunn Hollow Drive in the exclusive Fairfield Bay. This home features three bedrooms and two baths with 1284 sqft. There are tons of area amenities such as swimming pools and playground areas for the kids. Only 5 mintues to the marina!

28. 2024-01-25
    listed $119,000 New Listing 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Check out this charming home on 168 Dunn Hollow Drive in the exclusive Fairfield Bay. This home features three bedrooms and two baths with 1284 sqft. There are tons of area amenities such as swimming pools and playground areas for the kids. Only 5 mintues to the marina!

29. 2023-03-31
    soldstatus $101,000
30. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus $91,900 Sold
31. 2021-04-28
    historical
32. 2021-04-20
    price $86,900
33. 2021-03-31
    listed $87,900 New Listing
34. 2019-07-18
    soldstatus $77,100
35. 2019-07-17
    soldstatus $77,100
36. 2019-05-06
    listed $77,100
37. 2011-08-23
    soldstatus $85,000
38. 2011-08-22
    soldstatus $85,000
39. 2011-07-21
    historical
40. 2011-02-03
    listed $87,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $918 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$448/yr (+$37/mo · 95.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,038
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$718
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$2,424
• − Depreciation: −$4,175
• Taxable income: $4,335
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,041
• After-tax cash flow: $5,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+63.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $144,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $145,000 CARMLS
• 2024-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-15 Pending — CARMLS
• 2024-05-10 Sold (MLS) $119,000 NWARMLS
• 2024-05-10 Sold (MLS) $119,000 CARMLS
• 2024-04-13 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2024-04-12 Listed $109,000 NWARMLS
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $109,000 CARMLS
• 2024-02-23 Price Changed $114,000 CARMLS
• 2024-01-25 Listed $119,000 CARMLS
• 2023-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $101,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-28 Sold (MLS) $91,900 CARMLS
• 2021-04-28 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2021-04-20 Price Changed $86,900 CARMLS
• 2021-03-31 Listed $87,900 CARMLS
• 2019-07-18 Sold (MLS) $77,100 CARMLS
• 2019-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $77,100 Public Records
• 2019-05-06 Listed $77,100 CARMLS
• 2011-08-23 Sold (MLS) $85,000 CARMLS
• 2011-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2011-07-21 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2011-02-03 Listed $87,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · +202.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.