15400 N Heron Ln · Bluford, IL 62814

$149,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Built 1984 5.00 ac lot $103/sqft · 49% below area Est $290k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Peace and quiet await you here! Imagine every morning and evening looking out for miles. This home has had many recent updates and is now ready for the new owner to begin their next chapter. Step inside and find new floor covering, new appliances, new lighting, 3 total baths, a living room and a family room. Come see this opportunity to live on the edge of town without having to drive for miles. 24x24 detached garage

Key facts

• New lighting
• New appliances
• New floor covering

Tags

• NEW FLOOR COVERING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW LIGHTING
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-878/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,126 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $111,492 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.10%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,313
• List price: $149,500
• Delta: -48.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $76,732
• Equity at exit: $134,681

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $229,563
• Equity at exit: $290,446

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62814

• Home prices YoY: 27.1%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,292/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $136,581

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,500 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,500 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,500 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,500 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,500 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,500 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,500 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,500 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,500 Active 68 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,343 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,051/yr (+$88/mo · 81.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$1,292
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,070
• − Management: −$1,070
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable loss: −$3,524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$846
• After-tax cash flow: $-32/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Bluford

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1126
• US rank: #21256

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,724

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,818 people
• By 2030: 35,764 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 33,649 · -8.6%
• By 2050: 31,557 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 26,055 · -29.2%
• By 2100: 19,237 · -47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Native American 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.5% · R 73.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.7pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+45.1 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 43.50%
• Current HPI: 204.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Property tax history

+153.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,292 · +153.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.