420 Stone Hollow Dr · Ferris, TX 75125

$379,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,391 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,970 sqft lot Est $409k · 7% under $41/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Designed with both comfort and functionality in mind, this 4-bedroom home offers an open-concept layout that feels bright, easy, and welcoming from the moment you walk in. Large rear windows bring in an abundance of natural light, while the main living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen — creating a space that feels connected and ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features upgraded finishes, plenty of prep space, and an open view into the living area so you’re never far from the conversation. Tucked away for privacy, the primary suite includes dual vanities, a shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, ki

Key facts

• Bonus living area
• Primary suite
• Upgraded finishes

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE REAR WINDOWS
• UPGRADED FINISHES
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• BONUS LIVING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (WDL Homeowners Association Inc.); HOA covers grounds maintenance; Annual HOA fee of 495

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces; Driveway
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Property attached: Yes
• Construction: Built in 2022; Composition/shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Located in the Woodstone community just off of I-45

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1 with dual sinks, ensuite bath, and walk-in closet)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen with island and pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Pantry; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Security system
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer; Dryer; Disposal

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $380k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($69k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $380k).
• Recommended offer: $374k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.4% vs local median 4.4% in Ferris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#401 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ferris ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucy Mae Mcdonald El (math 40% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 620 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 67% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $374,201 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.62%
• DSCR: 3.88
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $408,861
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
370 Stone Hollow Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,344 (-2%)	6mo	$399,990	$171	89
881 Boomer Ln	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,215 (-7%)	12mo	$359,990	$163	72
206 S Meadow Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,206 (-8%)	6mo	$439,900	$199	66
851 Boomer Ln	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,659 (+11%)	12mo	$379,990	$143	66
301 Ford Way	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,568 (+7%)	12mo	$499,500	$195	60
831 Cavalcade Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,085 (-13%)	21mo	$335,000	$161	54
1518 Fm 985	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,512 (+5%)	4mo	$650,000	$259	50
217 E 5th St	0.68mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,272 (-5%)	22mo	$339,900	$150	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $303,537
• Equity at exit: $56,644

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.91×
• Total profit: $735,230
• Equity at exit: $32,847

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75125

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,826 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$633 /mo · $7,600/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,274
• Net cashflow: $5,728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,576

Max offer price $379,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
206 S Meadow Dr Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	2206	$8,950	$4.06	21d	1	0.29mi
206 S Meadow Dr Unit 1520042P Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	2195	$12,712	$5.79	21d	1	0.29mi
111 S Wood St Unit B Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$1,700	$0.77	43d	1	0.99mi
485 Norfolk Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$2,275	$1.28	20d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $379,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $384,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $384,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $384,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $384,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $384,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $384,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $384,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $384,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $384,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,600 · $633/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,600 · $633/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $129,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$7,600
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,393
• − Management: −$10,393
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable income: $66,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,033
• After-tax cash flow: $52,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready home offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. Upgrades to exterior trim and cleaning gutters can further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Clean gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Freshens up interior and improves comfort
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Clean gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Freshens up interior and improves comfort ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819170
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $53,468
• Composite: 25.3/100
• National rank: #7486
• State rank: #634 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ferris

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #8294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,154

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% White 32% Two or more races 25% Black 10% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.54%
• Current HPI: 243.4525
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $384,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+157.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,600 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.