31751 Kestrel Loop · Loxley, AL 36527

$339,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,953 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 2019 $174/sqft · at area comps Est $355k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VRM Range-Sellers will entertain offers between $339,000-$349,000. This beautiful, 4 BR/2BA home, located in the popular, Stonebridge subdivision, is in immaculate condition and waiting for a new owner! The open concept design is so inviting and great for entertaining! The Frigidaire Gas Range, Rinnai tankless gas water heater, granite countertops, under-mount sinks in kitchen and baths, SS appliances, recessed lights, tray ceilings with crown molding, 2" Faux Wood window blinds, and Moen plumbing fixtures are just some of the amazing features in this home. Upgrades and customization made to the home by the buyer include: large 14x16 deck, updated lighting, updated front door, extra storage shelving in all closets, wooden mudroom storage bench and cabinets in laundry room, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout(NO CARPET!), new convection gas oven, Built-In wooden shelving in guest room, and barn door for privacy in guest rooms. This gorgeous home is a must see and has so much to offer, plus the community is amazing and offers resort style amenities. The neighborhood even has its own elementary school! Call today to schedule a showing!

Key facts

• Under-mount sinks
• Ss appliances
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FRIGIDAIRE GAS RANGE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UNDER-MOUNT SINKS
• SS APPLIANCES
• RECESSED LIGHTS
• TRAY CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.1% in Loxley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,982 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,948
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -4.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12693 Waxwing Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,940 (-1%)	1mo	$339,500	$175	87
12738 Chickadee Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,960 (+0%)	2mo	$344,900	$176	85
31579 Lyon Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,031 (+4%)	1mo	$360,558	$178	68
31847 Lyon Rd	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,031 (+4%)	2mo	$356,650	$176	64
31578 Lyon Rd	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-8%)	1mo	$349,558	$195	61
31625 Lyon Rd	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-8%)	1mo	$349,558	$195	61
31662 Lyon Rd	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-8%)	1mo	$351,058	$196	60
31147 Semper Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,835 (-6%)	1mo	$345,000	$188	60
31697 Lyon Rd	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-8%)	2mo	$342,308	$191	60
31602 Lyon Rd	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-8%)	3mo	$349,308	$195	59
31734 Lyon Rd	0.57mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (+3%)	3mo	$363,268	$181	57
31789 Canopy Loop	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,771 (-9%)	1mo	$355,000	$200	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-58,713
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-29,218
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36527

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,162/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,615

Max offer price $304,787

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12941 Sanderling Loop Daphne, AL	4.0	3.0	2536	$2,695	$1.06	21d	1	0.25mi
31573 Shearwater Dr Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,995	$1.09	21d	1	0.31mi
31448 Memphis Loop Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	2033	$2,400	$1.18	13d	1	0.34mi
32231 Emancipation Cir Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.5	1492	$1,850	$1.24	43d	1	0.52mi
31399 Spoonbill Rd Daphne, AL	4.0	3.5	2567	$2,995	$1.17	21d	1	0.52mi
31697 Lyon Rd Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,500	$1.40	21d	1	0.55mi
13522 Monticello Blvd Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	2318	$2,700	$1.16	21d	1	0.65mi
31100 Falling Waters Loop Daphne, AL	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1158	$2,299	$1.99	43d	1	0.66mi
13445 Antler Hill Rd Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1921	$2,100	$1.09	43d	1	0.93mi
13708 Antler Hill Rd Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1948	$2,300	$1.18	43d	1	1.09mi
11801 Balsam Ct Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1783	$2,195	$1.23	21d	1	1.28mi
11730 Madrone Ln Daphne, AL	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,895	$1.18	43d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $339,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $339,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,349 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,349 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,349 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,349 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,349 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $339,349 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,349 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,349 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,349 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,349 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $339,349 Active 89 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    price $339,349 1160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1160 chars)

    VRM Range-Sellers will entertain offers between $339,000-$349,000. This beautiful, 4 BR/2BA home, located in the popular, Stonebridge subdivision, is in immaculate condition and waiting for a new owner! The open concept design is so inviting and great for entertaining! The Frigidaire Gas Range, Rinnai tankless gas water heater, granite countertops, under-mount sinks in kitchen and baths, SS appliances, recessed lights, tray ceilings with crown molding, 2" Faux Wood window blinds, and Moen plumbing fixtures are just some of the amazing features in this home. Upgrades and customization made to the home by the buyer include: large 14x16 deck, updated lighting, updated front door, extra storage shelving in all closets, wooden mudroom storage bench and cabinets in laundry room, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout(NO CARPET!), new convection gas oven, Built-In wooden shelving in guest room, and barn door for privacy in guest rooms. This gorgeous home is a must see and has so much to offer, plus the community is amazing and offers resort style amenities. The neighborhood even has its own elementary school! Call today to schedule a showing!

19. 2026-05-05
    price $339,349 1211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1211 chars)

    VRM RANGE-SELLERS WILL ENTERTAIN OFFERS BETWEEN $339,000-$349,000.This beautiful, 4 BR/2BA home, located in the popular, Stonebridge subdivision, is in immaculate condition and waiting for a new owner! The open concept design is so inviting and great for entertaining! The Frigidaire Gas Range, Rinnai tankless gas water heater, granite countertops, under-mount sinks in kitchen and baths, SS appliances, recessed lights, tray ceilings with crown molding, 2" Faux Wood window blinds, and Moen plumbing fixtures are just some of the amazing features in this home. Upgrades and customization made to the home by the buyer include: large 14x16 deck, updated lighting, updated front door, extra storage shelving in all closets, wooden mudroom storage bench and cabinets in laundry room, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout(NO CARPET!), new convection gas oven, Built-In wooden shelving in guest room, and barn door for privacy in guest rooms. This gorgeous home is a must see and has so much to offer, plus the community is amazing and offers resort style amenities. The neighborhood even has its own elementary school! Call today to schedule a showing! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2026-03-02
    listed $349,900 Active 1160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1211 chars)

    VRM RANGE-SELLERS WILL ENTERTAIN OFFERS BETWEEN $339,000-$349,000.This beautiful, 4 BR/2BA home, located in the popular, Stonebridge subdivision, is in immaculate condition and waiting for a new owner! The open concept design is so inviting and great for entertaining! The Frigidaire Gas Range, Rinnai tankless gas water heater, granite countertops, under-mount sinks in kitchen and baths, SS appliances, recessed lights, tray ceilings with crown molding, 2" Faux Wood window blinds, and Moen plumbing fixtures are just some of the amazing features in this home. Upgrades and customization made to the home by the buyer include: large 14x16 deck, updated lighting, updated front door, extra storage shelving in all closets, wooden mudroom storage bench and cabinets in laundry room, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout(NO CARPET!), new convection gas oven, Built-In wooden shelving in guest room, and barn door for privacy in guest rooms. This gorgeous home is a must see and has so much to offer, plus the community is amazing and offers resort style amenities. The neighborhood even has its own elementary school! Call today to schedule a showing! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

21. 2026-03-02
    listed $349,900 Active 1211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1211 chars)

    VRM RANGE-SELLERS WILL ENTERTAIN OFFERS BETWEEN $339,000-$349,000.This beautiful, 4 BR/2BA home, located in the popular, Stonebridge subdivision, is in immaculate condition and waiting for a new owner! The open concept design is so inviting and great for entertaining! The Frigidaire Gas Range, Rinnai tankless gas water heater, granite countertops, under-mount sinks in kitchen and baths, SS appliances, recessed lights, tray ceilings with crown molding, 2" Faux Wood window blinds, and Moen plumbing fixtures are just some of the amazing features in this home. Upgrades and customization made to the home by the buyer include: large 14x16 deck, updated lighting, updated front door, extra storage shelving in all closets, wooden mudroom storage bench and cabinets in laundry room, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout(NO CARPET!), new convection gas oven, Built-In wooden shelving in guest room, and barn door for privacy in guest rooms. This gorgeous home is a must see and has so much to offer, plus the community is amazing and offers resort style amenities. The neighborhood even has its own elementary school! Call today to schedule a showing! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

22. 2020-10-12
    soldstatus $613,455
23. 2019-01-31
    soldstatus $232,000
24. 2018-09-14
    listed $234,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,390 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$228/yr (+$19/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$1,162
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,275
• − Management: −$2,275
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$8,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,021
• After-tax cash flow: $-303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Loxley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #11346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loxley, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 21,765
• Household income: $120,189
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.56%
• Current HPI: 234.5113
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+44.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $339,349 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $339,349 BCAR
• 2026-03-02 Listed $349,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-02 Listed $349,900 BCAR
• 2020-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $613,455 Public Records
• 2019-01-31 Sold (MLS) $232,000 BCAR
• 2018-09-14 Listed $234,900 BCAR

Property tax history

+24.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,162 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.