1423 31st Ave Unit 4E · New York, NY 11106

$389,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 524 sqft · Condo public records · 183 Days on market

Built 1914 $776/mo HOA · 15% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Bright & Updated One-Bedroom Co-op – Prime Location! This beautifully updated one-bedroom co-op offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. The apartment is bright and airy, featuring windows in every room that fill the space with abundant natural light. Ideally located just a short distance from the N/W trains at either Broadway or 30th Avenue, commuting is a breeze. You’re also just a quick trip from the Ferry at Vernon Boulevard—perfect for easy access to Manhattan or a scenic ride. Need to run errands? You’re only one block from a shopping center with everything you need: a grocery store, Rite Aid, Post Office, and Starbucks. Don’t miss this

Key facts

• $776 HOA
• Built 1914
• Listed 183 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $389k).
• Recommended offer: $342k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,138/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 3679% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $342,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.55%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.06% appreciation · 7.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $89,447
• Equity at exit: $154,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $332,027
• Equity at exit: $223,939

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11106

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,138 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$486 /mo · $5,835/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$776
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,079
• Net cashflow: $595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,385

Max offer price $389,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1420 27th Ave Astoria, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$3,237	$3.65	3d	9	0.35mi
888 Main St New York, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$4,431	$4.60	6d	7	0.68mi
3705 30th St Long Island City, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$4,840	$6.91	10d	3	0.90mi
515 E 86th St Unit 1760 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	485	$5,420	$11.18	3d	1	0.97mi
515 E 86th St Unit 589 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$6,070	$8.73	20d	1	0.97mi
501 1/2 E 83rd St #1998 New York, NY	2.0	1.0	525	$4,710	$8.97	24d	2	0.98mi
501 E 87th St #2094 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	618	$7,890	$12.77	1d	2	1.00mi
1567 York Ave Unit 1021866P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	742	$5,910	$7.96	22d	1	1.02mi
420 E 80th St #198 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	623	$4,760	$7.64	18d	1	1.09mi
515 E 72nd St Unit 17D New York, NY	1.0	1.0	687	$5,500	$8.01	24d	1	1.15mi
34-35 44th St Astoria, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	613	$3,576	$5.83	2d	26	1.15mi
354 E 91st St #648 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	692	$5,600	$8.09	1d	2	1.20mi
347 E 78th St Unit 1460467P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	645	$7,606	$11.79	24d	1	1.23mi
347 E 78th St Unit 1530420P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	645	$6,270	$9.72	22d	1	1.23mi
315 E 86th St Unit 1327 New York, NY	1.0	2.0	726	$6,460	$8.90	24d	1	1.24mi
345 E 94th St #1470 New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	710	$5,645	$7.95	3d	3	1.26mi
315 E 78th St Unit 1021994P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	441	$5,037	$11.42	20d	1	1.27mi
315 E 78th St Unit 1021894P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	548	$5,643	$10.30	22d	1	1.27mi
315 E 78th St Unit 1021847P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	516	$4,880	$9.46	20d	1	1.27mi
1373 1st Ave Unit 1952 New York, NY	2.0	2.0	650	$7,260	$11.17	24d	1	1.28mi
301 E 79th St Unit 28P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$5,500	$7.86	24d	1	1.28mi
308 E 78th St #2024 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	550	$4,610	$8.38	24d	2	1.30mi
244 E 86th St #604 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$4,920	$5.18	3d	2	1.31mi
235 E 89th St Unit 1495783P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	699	$7,443	$10.65	20d	1	1.32mi
403 E 69th St #1518 New York, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	745	$3,990	$5.36	24d	3	1.36mi
1290 1st Ave #1499 New York, NY	2.0	1.0	671	$6,100	$9.09	2d	2	1.38mi
231 E 76th St #1530 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$6,470	$9.95	20d	1	1.39mi
200 E 82nd St #505 New York, NY	2.0	1.0	636	$6,715	$10.55	1d	3	1.41mi
201 E 86th St #298 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	700	$7,210	$10.30	3d	2	1.41mi
240e E 75th St Unit 1021873P New York, NY	—	1.0	441	$5,227	$11.85	5d	1	1.41mi
240e E 75th St Unit 1021876P New York, NY	—	1.0	441	$5,981	$13.56	7d	1	1.41mi
200 E 89th St Unit 12G New York, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$5,000	$7.69	18d	1	1.42mi
215 E 95th St #1293 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	740	$5,520	$7.46	1d	2	1.46mi
400 E 66th St Unit 1016404P New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	791	$10,597	$13.40	3d	2	1.48mi
215 E 96th St Unit 688 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	717	$7,960	$11.10	3d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $776 · $9,312/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   status Active
3. 2026-02-13
   historical
4. 2025-10-31
   price $389,000
5. 2025-08-14
   listed $399,000 Active
6. 2025-08-13
   historical $399,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 53% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$5,835
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,932
• − Management: −$4,932
• − HOA: −$9,312
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable income: $1,591
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$382
• After-tax cash flow: $6,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 40,930
• Household income: $84,867
• Rent vs Own: 83.4% rent · 16.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3679.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 19% Two or more races 12% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 13% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.06%
• Current HPI: 348.3009
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $389,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Coming Soon $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid