2401 W Southern Ave #260 · Tempe, AZ 85282

$64,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 760 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready and full of charm, this newer home is nestled in a welcoming 55+ guard-gated community in a prime Tempe location. Offering 1 bedroom and 2 bathrooms, the open floor plan features stylish vinyl plank flooring, a spacious ensuite bath, and a well-appointed kitchen with abundant cabinet space. The inviting front porch is perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests, while the covered carport accommodates 2-3 vehicles. A Tuff Shed provides valuable additional storage. Located in a vibrant land lease community with on-site security, residents enjoy access to walking trails, a heated pool and spa, and an active clubhouse filled with social events and activities. Pets are welcome, and

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Vinyl plank flooring
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• GUARD GATED COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SPACIOUS ENSUITE BATH
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Head west on Southern Ave to Potter, head South to guard gate for directions.; Heated spa
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease payment approximately $1,111.46 per month; No association fees included; Community pool; Heated community spa; Community media room; Community laundry; Fitness center; Near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2; RV access/parking; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community; Guarded entry; Security guard
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Vertical siding; Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage; East/West exposure; Gravel/stone front; Gravel/stone back; City-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Non-laminate counters; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 1 possible bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; Vaulted ceilings; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath; Solar screens; Dual-pane windows; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $710 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 3.4% in Tempe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#10 in AZ, #2,527 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Tempe School District (4258) (urban): math 17% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #170 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,926 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.91%
• DSCR: 3.09
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $31,920
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2401 W Southern Ave #403	0.00mi	1/1.0	800 (+5%)	12mo	$20,000	$25	77
2609 W Southern Ave #400	0.18mi	2/1.5 (+1)	728 (-4%)	5mo	$30,500	$42	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $30,452
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $68,253
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85282

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $710

Break-even live

Break-even rent $568

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $755	-5% $733	+0% $710	+5% $688	+10% $666
Rent	-10% $595	-5% $652	+0% $710	+5% $768	+10% $826
Rate	-1.0pp $743	-0.5pp $727	base $710	+0.5pp $694	+1.0pp $676

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1688 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	894	$1,650	$1.85	2d	1	0.41mi
1600 E La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,281	$1.45	2d	26	0.55mi
1440 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1075	$1,950	$1.81	2d	1	0.60mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0	1.0	688	$1,502	$2.18	2d	1	0.60mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,809	$1.91	3d	1	0.60mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,776	$1.87	2d	1	0.60mi
2401 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,700	$1.58	2d	1	0.68mi
4901 S Calle Los Cerros Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,395	$1.61	2d	3	0.78mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,700	$1.81	2d	15	0.91mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,620	$1.70	11d	19	0.91mi
2155 S 55th St Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$1,177	$1.10	2d	13	0.98mi
4520 E Baseline Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,053	$1.39	2d	24	1.04mi
1651 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0	1.0	495	$1,450	$2.93	2d	12	1.10mi
2100 S Priest Dr Unit 1386547P Tempe, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	973	$2,196	$2.26	4d	2	1.13mi
4839 S Darrow Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,325	$1.86	2d	12	1.13mi
4424 E Baseline Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,131	$1.22	2d	54	1.14mi
5300 S Priest Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0	1.0	465	$1,200	$2.58	2d	5	1.17mi
1222 W Baseline Rd #261 Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,400	$1.43	2d	1	1.21mi
4505 S Hardy Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	840	$1,199	$1.43	2d	19	1.31mi
1330 W Broadway Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	738	$999	$1.35	2d	13	1.31mi
1330 W Broadway Rd Apt A111 Tempe, AZ	1.0	1.0	630	$1,049	$1.67	2d	1	1.31mi
633 W Southern Ave Unit A Tempe, AZ	1.0	1.0	620	$2,450	$3.95	2d	1	1.32mi
4514 E Riverside St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1008	$995	$0.99	2d	1	1.36mi
1311 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	695	$1,182	$1.70	2d	25	1.37mi
5038 S Hardy Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,193	$1.10	2d	21	1.37mi
4410 E Pueblo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	2d	1	1.39mi
4420 E Wood St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1016	$1,300	$1.28	2d	1	1.42mi
530 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	881	$1,650	$1.87	2d	1	1.43mi
6250 S 40th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$1,617	$1.55	2d	16	1.43mi
524 W Malibu Dr Unit 4 Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,299	$1.73	2d	1	1.44mi
1145 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,288	$1.56	2d	10	1.44mi
1801 S Cutler Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0	1.0	690	$1,152	$1.67	2d	3	1.44mi
1222 W Auburn Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	1074	$2,200	$2.05	11d	1	1.44mi
515 W Pebble Beach Dr Unit 515 Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	2d	1	1.45mi
1133 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,269	$1.33	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $64,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $64,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $64,900 Active
16. 2026-03-17
    historical
17. 2026-03-02
    listed $60,000 Active
18. 2026-01-26
    historical
19. 2025-10-31
    listed $50,000 Active
20. 2025-04-17
    historical
21. 2025-01-15
    listed $71,000 Active
22. 2024-08-08
    historical
23. 2024-06-15
    listed $90,000 Active
24. 2024-01-16
    historical
25. 2023-12-19
    listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,408
• − Management: −$1,408
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $7,966
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,912
• After-tax cash flow: $6,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home in a 55+ community offers a good condition with modern amenities and a welcoming front porch. It's a great investment opportunity with potential for rental or resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improve curb appeal and attract more tenants
• Both paint exterior — enhance curb appeal and attract more buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — improve curb appeal and attract more tenants ↑
• Both paint exterior — enhance curb appeal and attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tempe School District (4258)
• NCES district ID: 0408310
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,112
• Composite: 19.7/100
• National rank: #8721
• State rank: #170 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tempe

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #2527

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tempe, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 193,337
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 53,624
• Household income: $79,036
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2973.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Asian 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -343.77%
• Current HPI: 353.6986
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-35.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $64,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Listed $71,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-06-15 Listed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2024-01-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-12-19 Listed $100,000 ARMLS