1427 Valencia Ct · Fayetteville, NC 28303

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1959 Est $207k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Solid Brick ranch home on beautifully treed lot on quiet Cul-de-Sac of only 4 homes! Huge Oaks in front and rear yard. Three bedrooms, 2 baths, all with original hardwood floors. Large indoor laundry room off kitchen/dining area, brick fireplace in huge living room, detached 2 car garage with loads of storage space in rafters! Home needs interior updates, but it is priced right for the buyer that can move in now and do cosmetic changes to their liking!

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Brick fireplace
• Huge oaks

Tags

• BRICK RANCH HOME
• TREED LOT
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• HUGE OAKS
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• BRICK FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached and detached garage/carport options; 2 garage spaces; 1 carport space; 3 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Zoned SF10 (Single Family Res 10); Subdivision: MCARTHUR
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior
• Exterior features: Storage; Partial backyard fencing; Back yard fencing; Level lot; Cul-de-sac location; Interior lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room masonry fireplace; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($447/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westarea Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,410 statewide, top 90%, 559 students, 100% FRL); Luther Nick Jeralds Middle (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #436 of 475 statewide, top 93%, 616 students, 100% FRL); E E Smith High (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #381 of 535 statewide, top 72%, 1,004 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 285 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $118k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,752 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.91%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,752
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1781 Geiberger Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-5%)	2mo	$229,000	$165	72
1613 Morehead Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,605 (+10%)	5mo	$200,000	$125	61
902 Orchard Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,502 (+3%)	4mo	$217,000	$144	60
514 Helen St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	4mo	$244,000	$159	58
1108 Stamper Rd	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,315 (-10%)	1mo	$157,500	$120	57
1716 Boros Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+12%)	4mo	$249,000	$152	56
1916 Spruce St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-10%)	2mo	$185,000	$142	54
1649 Boros Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,597 (+10%)	6mo	$220,000	$138	53
1061 Mohawk Ave	0.69mi	3/3.0	1,547 (+6%)	1mo	$223,000	$144	52
3118 Imperial Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,341 (-8%)	3mo	$169,500	$126	52
1519 Palmer Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+8%)	3mo	$212,000	$135	50
1905 Spruce St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,657 (+14%)	0mo	$210,000	$127	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-25,955
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,427
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28303

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,558 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,431/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $87	+0% $37	+5% $-12	+10% $-62
Rent	-10% $-86	-5% $-24	+0% $37	+5% $99	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $82	base $37	+0.5pp $-8	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1615 Morehead Ave Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,400	$1.30	25d	1	0.25mi
1547 Londonderry Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1636	$1,750	$1.07	25d	1	0.34mi
3318 Rogers Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,750	$1.26	16d	1	0.43mi
1907 Eichelberger Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,650	$1.13	25d	1	0.50mi
1712 Scampton Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1814	$2,000	$1.10	25d	1	0.55mi
1712 Scampton Dr Unit NA Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1814	$1,900	$1.05	16d	1	0.55mi
1014 Enclave Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1112	$1,685	$1.52	16d	19	0.55mi
3527 Scottywood Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1454	$1,775	$1.22	25d	1	0.58mi
853 Shannon Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1820	$1,650	$0.91	25d	1	0.62mi
1808 Tryon Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1066	$995	$0.93	25d	1	0.63mi
1526 Trevino Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1629	$1,800	$1.10	25d	1	0.64mi
3374 Galleria Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,200	$0.89	25d	1	0.65mi
1861 Tryon Dr Unit 3 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$995	$0.95	25d	1	0.70mi
1849 Tryon Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1061	$998	$0.94	25d	2	0.71mi
1882 Tryon Dr #4 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,100	$1.03	16d	1	0.75mi
4420 Blanton Rd Unit 4420-H Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	990	$1,025	$1.04	16d	1	0.79mi
1909 Tryon Dr #7 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,050	$0.99	25d	1	0.82mi
1817 McGougan Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1811	$2,100	$1.16	16d	1	0.82mi
1216 Superior Pointe Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1288	$1,450	$1.13	25d	1	0.89mi
710 Villagio Pl Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	984	$1,686	$1.71	16d	9	0.95mi
1937 Sardonyx Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	25d	1	1.07mi
2436 Bragg Blvd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	16d	1	1.09mi
2436 Bragg Blvd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	25d	1	1.09mi
2434 Bragg Blvd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	25d	1	1.09mi
1000 Ivy Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	25d	1	1.10mi
2328 Barrington Cir Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,000	$0.95	23d	1	1.19mi
2326 Barrington Cir Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	25d	1	1.20mi
2326 Barrington Cir Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	16d	1	1.20mi
1199 Wrenwood Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,345	$1.10	25d	1	1.22mi
2310 Barrington Cir Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	25d	1	1.22mi
1198 Windham Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	16d	1	1.24mi
3618 Sugar Cane Cir Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,900	$1.19	25d	1	1.26mi
1276 N Forest Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,295	$1.08	25d	1	1.27mi
1160 Windham Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,250	$1.04	25d	1	1.28mi
2532 Sourwood Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1562	$1,700	$1.09	25d	1	1.30mi
808 Ethelored St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1701	$1,395	$0.82	25d	1	1.31mi
2105 Wexford Oaks Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	988	$1,500	$1.52	25d	1	1.43mi
1404 Hibiscus Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1418	$1,350	$0.95	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $175,000 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $175,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $185,000 Active
18. 2010-01-06
    soldstatus $118,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,431 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,431 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,431
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,495
• − Management: −$1,495
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,499
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$600
• After-tax cash flow: $1,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 30,965
• Household income: $58,223
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1370.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 37% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.14%
• Current HPI: 226.5097
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.01%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+56.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $185,000 LPRMLS
• 2010-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $118,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,431 · +28.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.