7996 Tawnyberry Ln · Pinebrook, TX 77363

$205,533

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Manufactured · 59 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 0.28 ac lot $139/sqft · 31% below area Est $298k · 31% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

AFFORDABLE LIVING IN THE COUNTRY! ENJOY A 1/4 ACRE OF PRIVACY WITH EASY ACCESS TO 249 AGGIE EXPRESS WAY! THIS NEVER LIVED IN HOME IS PERFECT. 4 SPACIOUS BEDROOMS, OPEN LIVING/ DINING AREA WITH NEW APPLIANCES PROVIDE CLUTTER- FREE EXPERIENCE. ENJOY SITTING ON THE BACK PATIO WITH NO BACK NEIGHBORS. LIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND NO HOA WILL GIVE YOU THE FREEDOM TO FULLY ENJOY THIS HOME AND BRING YOUR CREATIVE DREAMS TO LIFE. DONT MISS OUT ON THIS OPPORTUNITY AND COME SEE THIS BEAUTY TODAY!

Key facts

• 1/4 acre of privacy
• New appliances
• Light restrictions

Tags

• 1/4 ACRE OF PRIVACY
• NEW APPLIANCES
• BACK PATIO
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• LIGHT RESTRICTIONS
• NO HOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer and septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; 1,475 living area
• Construction: Built in 2024; Cement siding and wood siding; Composition roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared and wooded areas; Subdivision; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14.5 x 12.5); Three additional bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 10 x 12.5; 9 x 12.5; 9 x 12.5)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Energy Star qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $206k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-416/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Navasota ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #600 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: High Point El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 478 students, 80% FRL); Navasota J H (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 664 students, 82% FRL); Navasota H S (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,023 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 884 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $175,411 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,370
• List price: $205,533
• Delta: -31.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8284 Basswood Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,475 (0%)	10mo	$200,000	$136	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $22,579
• Equity at exit: $92,417

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $83,541
• Equity at exit: $142,425

Cash invested: $57,549 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77363

• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,078
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$257 /mo · $3,083/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,798

Max offer price $200,520

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $36	+0% $-35	+5% $-106	+10% $-177
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-104	+0% $-35	+5% $35	+10% $104
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $18	base $-35	+0.5pp $-88	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,383
• Closing costs: $6,166
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,533 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,533 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,533 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,533 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,533 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,533 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,533 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,533 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,533 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,533 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,533 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,533 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,533 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,533 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $205,533 Active 484-char remark
16. 2026-04-19
    historical
17. 2026-03-27
    listed $214,773 Active
18. 2026-02-28
    historical
19. 2025-11-26
    price $187,500
20. 2025-09-16
    price $199,999
21. 2025-08-07
    listed $209,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,513
• − Property taxes: −$3,083
• − Insurance: −$1,028
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$5,979
• Taxable loss: −$3,921
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$941
• After-tax cash flow: $525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with some minor repairs needed, such as landscaping and painting. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for a fresh look to enhance its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Some areas of the landscaping are overgrown and could be trimmed and maintained.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance the curb appeal and attract potential buyers.
• Resale Painting — Updating the exterior paint can give the home a fresh look and improve its curb appeal.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve the comfort of the home and attract tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Some areas of the landscaping are overgrown and could be trimmed and maintained.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance the curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Painting — Updating the exterior paint can give the home a fresh look and improve its curb appeal. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve the comfort of the home and attract tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navasota ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832190
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,326
• Composite: 26.5/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #600 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinebrook

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,246

Population outlook (Grimes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,910 people
• By 2030: 29,539 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 30,648 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 31,698 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 34,351 · +18.8%
• By 2100: 33,565 · +16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grimes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.3) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -60.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+44.2 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $205,533 HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $214,773 HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $187,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $209,000 HARMLS