4316 S Kirkman Rd #1611 · Orlando, FL 32811

$130,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 729 sqft · Condo public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1997 $347/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious first-floor one-bedroom condo for sale in the gated Sunset Lake community. This move-in-ready condo features an open floor plan with a bright living room, dining nook, and kitchen with indoor laundry. The primary bedroom offers a walk-in closet and convenient access to a separate guest bathroom. Assigned parking along with visitor parking and community mailboxes are located directly in front of the unit. Sunset Lake offers resort-style amenities including a community dock overlooking Turkey Lake, swimming pool, playground, clubhouse, and on-site fitness center. Conveniently located near shopping, dining and major roadways, this condo is ideal for homeowners or investors seeking low

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Swimming pool

Tags

• GATED SUNSET LAKE COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COMMUNITY DOCK
• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($929/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Windy Ridge K-8 (math 68% / reading 68%, grade B+, #425 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 1,173 students, 41% FRL); Olympia High (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,969 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 238 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.55%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-20,504
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-28,392
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32811

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,647 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,688/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$347
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,549

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4324 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	730	$2,700	$3.70	24d	1	0.05mi
4352 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,365	$1.42	2d	2	0.07mi
4368 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	730	$2,700	$3.70	24d	1	0.09mi
4368 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$1,700	$1.97	14d	2	0.09mi
4332 S Kirkman Rd #1003 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	729	$1,350	$1.85	3d	1	0.10mi
6025 Oakshadow St Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,221	$1.29	2d	64	0.33mi
4601 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,124	$2.04	3d	3	0.36mi
4618 Middlebrook Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	710	$1,499	$2.11	2d	28	0.51mi
6421 Conroy Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,304	$1.54	2d	21	0.63mi
5109 Eaglesmere Dr Unit 11A Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	591	$1,350	$2.28	15d	1	0.75mi
4860 Cypress Woods Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$1,099	$1.40	3d	18	0.78mi
4000 Middlebrook Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	979	$1,199	$1.22	7d	27	0.80mi
5112 Conroy Rd #315 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	711	$1,250	$1.76	11d	1	0.87mi
6435 Manhattan Village Ave #205 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	680	$1,340	$1.97	4d	1	0.87mi
5120 Conroy Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	849	$1,250	$1.47	15d	1	0.93mi
5578 Metrowest Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	774	$1,272	$1.64	24d	2	0.95mi
5578 Metrowest Blvd Unit 1-302 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	709	$1,300	$1.83	4d	1	0.95mi
5578 Metrowest Blvd Unit 1-211 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	709	$1,275	$1.80	14d	1	0.95mi
5164 Conroy Rd Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	711	$1,275	$1.79	24d	1	0.95mi
5124 Conroy Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	849	$1,350	$1.59	15d	2	0.97mi
5152 Conroy Rd Unit 1316 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	597	$1,250	$2.09	16d	1	0.99mi
5128 Conroy Rd Unit 713HOA Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	597	$1,350	$2.26	3d	1	1.01mi
5974 Windhover Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,099	$1.37	2d	9	1.04mi
4822 Cason Cove Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	884	$1,349	$1.53	2d	9	1.05mi
5587 Millennia Park Dr Unit 215 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	24d	1	1.05mi
5587 Millennia Park Dr Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,595	$2.13	18d	1	1.05mi
5587 Millennia Park Dr Unit 110 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,900	$2.53	24d	1	1.05mi
5579 Millennia Park Dr Unit 517 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,790	$2.39	14d	1	1.05mi
5587 Millennia Park Dr Unit 519 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,800	$2.40	24d	1	1.05mi
5579 Millennia Park Dr #403 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	24d	1	1.05mi
5587 Millennia Park Dr Unit 515 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,500	$2.00	24d	1	1.05mi
5467 Vineland Rd #6214 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	645	$1,350	$2.09	22d	1	1.06mi
5455 Vineland Rd #3214 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	645	$1,375	$2.13	7d	1	1.08mi
4771 Walden Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	798	$1,474	$1.85	3d	12	1.12mi
5475 Vineland Rd #8311 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	734	$1,500	$2.04	24d	1	1.12mi
5451 Vineland Rd #2111 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	734	$1,295	$1.76	18d	1	1.13mi
5451 Vineland Rd #2111 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	734	$1,295	$1.76	22d	1	1.13mi
2674 Robert Trent Jones Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	844	$1,330	$1.58	4d	3	1.17mi
2674 Robert Trent Jones Dr Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	674	$1,415	$2.10	24d	2	1.17mi
5447 Vineland Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	983	$1,650	$1.68	4d	3	1.19mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $347 · $4,164/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurityparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $130,000 Pending 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $130,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $130,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
8. 2026-03-11
   price $130,000
9. 2026-01-31
   status Active
10. 2026-01-06
    status Pending
11. 2025-12-23
    listed $140,000 Active
12. 2022-03-17
    soldstatus $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,688 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,688 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,688
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − HOA: −$4,164
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$232
• After-tax cash flow: $1,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orlando, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,475
• Household income: $54,082
• Rent vs Own: 69.9% rent · 30.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2728.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 17% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Estonian 4% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.37%
• Current HPI: 284.9191
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.15%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-31 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,688 · +456.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.