9520 E Romping Rd · Carefree, AZ 85377

$875,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,303 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1990 1.05 ac lot $380/sqft · 17% below area Est $1074k · 19% under $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This custom home sits on an elevated one-acre+ lot (el 2,712) capturing sweeping mountain views from the moment you step inside. Located in an upscale neighborhood surrounded by million-dollar homes, the setting offers privacy and room to add value--including plenty of space for a pool or guest house. The spacious living room welcomes you with high ceilings, a corner fireplace, and large windows that frame the natural beauty of the desert and mountains beyond. The adjoining dining area flows into the generous kitchen and breakfast nook, all sharing those wonderful views. The kitchen features abundant cabinetry, a breakfast bar, and natural light enhanced by overhead skylights. A warm and inviting den with a wet bar opens to the expansive front patio--an ideal spot to unwind, entertain, and take in the breathtaking sunsets Carefree is known for. The split primary suite is exceptionally large, offering peaceful mountain vistas, custom walk-in closet, a walk-in shower, jetted tub, and a private toilet room. Two additional bedrooms also enjoy beautiful views and share a spacious second bathroom with a walk-in shower, soaking tub, and private toilet room. A separate guest half bath is conveniently located off the main living areas. Outside, a circular driveway and an oversized 928 sq ft 3-4 car garage offers ample room for a boat, workshop space, or recreational toys\ reflecting the timeless Arizona lifestyle of space, freedom, and comfort. An additional 682 sq ft of covered patio and porches gives plenty of outdoor space to sit back and relax. This home blends traditional charm with generous living spaces in a setting that truly celebrates the surrounding desert and mountain landscape. All just minutes from the charming towns of Carefree and Cave Creek, known for their Western spirit, wonderful restaurants, art galleries, and boutique shops. Outstanding golfing, hiking, and mountain biking trails are close by. Enjoy darker skies, cleaner air, and nearby lakes Bartlett and Horseshoe as well as the Verde River for outdoor adventures. Situated within the excellent CCUSD school district with convenient shopping nearby. This house has an approved and certified septic system and has Carefree water (which is very well run and not too expensive). Annual HOA fees are only $60 adding further peace of mind. Come experience the beauty, peace, and promise of living in Carefree.

Key facts

• 1.05 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $875k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $875k).
• Recommended offer: $770k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $245k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$96k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($770k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $875k implies a 1435% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $770,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.59%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,074,436
• List price: $875,000
• Delta: -18.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37042 N Tree Lined Trl	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,193 (-5%)	7mo	$1,225,000	$559	66
9215 E Lazywood Pl	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,469 (+7%)	2mo	$1,075,000	$435	56
36849 N Stardust Ln	0.23mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,176 (-6%)	16mo	$900,000	$414	56
9030 E Trail Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,121 (-8%)	11mo	$875,000	$413	41
9432 E Quail Trl	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,620 (+14%)	2mo	$1,235,000	$471	40
8944 E Cave Creek Rd E	0.73mi	3/2.5	2,625 (+14%)	4mo	$1,045,000	$398	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $396,683
• Equity at exit: $557,324

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $1,056,392
• Equity at exit: $1,017,008

Cash invested: $245,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,210 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,589
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,879/yr
• Insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,934
• Net cashflow: $2,161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,474

Max offer price $875,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,657	-5% $2,409	+0% $2,161	+5% $1,914	+10% $619
Rent	-10% $1,434	-5% $1,798	+0% $2,161	+5% $2,525	+10% $2,889
Rate	-1.0pp $2,602	-0.5pp $2,384	base $2,161	+0.5pp $1,935	+1.0pp $1,704

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $218,750
• Closing costs: $26,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37200 N Cave Creek Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0–4.0	3.5–4.5	3008	$12,000	$3.99	25d	4	0.59mi
9792 E Forgotten Hills Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3067	$8,000	$2.61	44d	1	1.08mi
9915 E Graythorn Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5	2086	$8,000	$3.84	25d	1	1.31mi
9303 E Whitewing Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2167	$2,800	$1.29	13d	1	1.32mi
10071 E Graythorn Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2292	$8,000	$3.49	44d	1	1.41mi
9338 E Prairie Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2515	$7,000	$2.78	44d	1	1.41mi
10277 E Nolina Trl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3307	$15,000	$4.54	44d	1	1.42mi
10015 E Graythorn Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2292	$8,500	$3.71	44d	1	1.42mi
10111 E Graythorn Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2292	$8,000	$3.49	44d	1	1.48mi
9616 E Chuckwagon Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1832	$7,000	$3.82	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $875,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $875,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $875,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $875,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $875,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $875,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $875,000 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $875,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $875,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $875,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $875,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $875,000 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $875,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $875,000 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-02-14
    price $875,000 2414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2414 chars)

    This custom home sits on an elevated one-acre+ lot (el 2,712) capturing sweeping mountain views from the moment you step inside. Located in an upscale neighborhood surrounded by million-dollar homes, the setting offers privacy and room to add value--including plenty of space for a pool or guest house. The spacious living room welcomes you with high ceilings, a corner fireplace, and large windows that frame the natural beauty of the desert and mountains beyond. The adjoining dining area flows into the generous kitchen and breakfast nook, all sharing those wonderful views. The kitchen features abundant cabinetry, a breakfast bar, and natural light enhanced by overhead skylights. A warm and inviting den with a wet bar opens to the expansive front patio--an ideal spot to unwind, entertain, and take in the breathtaking sunsets Carefree is known for. The split primary suite is exceptionally large, offering peaceful mountain vistas, custom walk-in closet, a walk-in shower, jetted tub, and a private toilet room. Two additional bedrooms also enjoy beautiful views and share a spacious second bathroom with a walk-in shower, soaking tub, and private toilet room. A separate guest half bath is conveniently located off the main living areas. Outside, a circular driveway and an oversized 928 sq ft 3-4 car garage offers ample room for a boat, workshop space, or recreational toys\ reflecting the timeless Arizona lifestyle of space, freedom, and comfort. An additional 682 sq ft of covered patio and porches gives plenty of outdoor space to sit back and relax. This home blends traditional charm with generous living spaces in a setting that truly celebrates the surrounding desert and mountain landscape. All just minutes from the charming towns of Carefree and Cave Creek, known for their Western spirit, wonderful restaurants, art galleries, and boutique shops. Outstanding golfing, hiking, and mountain biking trails are close by. Enjoy darker skies, cleaner air, and nearby lakes Bartlett and Horseshoe as well as the Verde River for outdoor adventures. Situated within the excellent CCUSD school district with convenient shopping nearby. This house has an approved and certified septic system and has Carefree water (which is very well run and not too expensive). Annual HOA fees are only $60 adding further peace of mind. Come experience the beauty, peace, and promise of living in Carefree.

16. 2026-01-08
    listed $895,000 Active 2414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2414 chars)

    This custom home sits on an elevated one-acre+ lot (el 2,712) capturing sweeping mountain views from the moment you step inside. Located in an upscale neighborhood surrounded by million-dollar homes, the setting offers privacy and room to add value--including plenty of space for a pool or guest house. The spacious living room welcomes you with high ceilings, a corner fireplace, and large windows that frame the natural beauty of the desert and mountains beyond. The adjoining dining area flows into the generous kitchen and breakfast nook, all sharing those wonderful views. The kitchen features abundant cabinetry, a breakfast bar, and natural light enhanced by overhead skylights. A warm and inviting den with a wet bar opens to the expansive front patio--an ideal spot to unwind, entertain, and take in the breathtaking sunsets Carefree is known for. The split primary suite is exceptionally large, offering peaceful mountain vistas, custom walk-in closet, a walk-in shower, jetted tub, and a private toilet room. Two additional bedrooms also enjoy beautiful views and share a spacious second bathroom with a walk-in shower, soaking tub, and private toilet room. A separate guest half bath is conveniently located off the main living areas. Outside, a circular driveway and an oversized 928 sq ft 3-4 car garage offers ample room for a boat, workshop space, or recreational toys\ reflecting the timeless Arizona lifestyle of space, freedom, and comfort. An additional 682 sq ft of covered patio and porches gives plenty of outdoor space to sit back and relax. This home blends traditional charm with generous living spaces in a setting that truly celebrates the surrounding desert and mountain landscape. All just minutes from the charming towns of Carefree and Cave Creek, known for their Western spirit, wonderful restaurants, art galleries, and boutique shops. Outstanding golfing, hiking, and mountain biking trails are close by. Enjoy darker skies, cleaner air, and nearby lakes Bartlett and Horseshoe as well as the Verde River for outdoor adventures. Situated within the excellent CCUSD school district with convenient shopping nearby. This house has an approved and certified septic system and has Carefree water (which is very well run and not too expensive). Annual HOA fees are only $60 adding further peace of mind. Come experience the beauty, peace, and promise of living in Carefree.

17. 1988-03-22
    soldstatus $57,000
18. 1978-09-21
    soldstatus $16,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,879 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,775 · $481/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,896/yr (+$325/mo · 207.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $110,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$49,014
• − Property taxes: −$1,879
• − Insurance: −$4,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,842
• − Management: −$8,842
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$25,455
• Taxable income: $12,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,894
• After-tax cash flow: $23,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+5301.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $875,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $895,000 ARMLS
• 1988-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 1978-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $16,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,879 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.