4261 E Crown Ct · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$498,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2004 7,425 sqft lot Est $371k · 34% over $130/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Nestled within the gated community of Seville, this beautifully updated single-level home offers a refined blend of luxury, comfort, and peace of mind. Featuring three bedrooms and two baths, the thoughtfully designed living spaces are ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Positioned on a desirable corner lot, the home enjoys added privacy and a serene setting. Outdoors, a true resort-style retreat awaits with a sparkling pool and spa, complemented by refreshed pool decking completed in 2025 and lush turf grass--perfect for gatherings or quiet relaxation. Recent 2025 upgrades include a new HVAC system, water heater, and water softener, enhancing efficiency and long-term value. Me

Key facts

• Gated community
• New water softener
• New water heater

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CORNER LOT
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW WATER SOFTENER
• MEANDERING WALKING PATHS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: non-assumable
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with semi-annual fee (maintenance of grounds included); Community amenities: pool, golf, gated community, playground, biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered spaces; 2 open spaces; 2-car garage with direct access and garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer; 220 volts in kitchen (electric)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof; Block fencing
• Exterior features: Private yard; Desert front landscaping; Cul-de-sac location; Synthetic grass in back; Automatic water timer for backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Multiple ovens; 220-volt outlet in kitchen; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in master bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Full bathroom in master bedroom; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Washer/dryer hookup only; Energy Star (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $498k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-696 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $375k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Riggs Elementary (math 56% / reading 63%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 833 students, 12% FRL); Willie & Coy Payne Jr. High (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #26 of 218 statewide, top 12%, 1,143 students, 11% FRL); Basha High School (math 61% / reading 61%, grade C+, #17 of 381 statewide, top 4%, 2,814 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,698 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.99%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $371,076
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6557 S Classic Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,284 (0%)	11mo	$485,000	$378	82
6645 S Cartier Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,284 (0%)	23mo	$410,000	$319	70
6351 S Blake St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+11%)	0mo	$390,000	$274	51
3894 E Palmer St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-5%)	13mo	$350,000	$288	47
6364 S Forest Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-5%)	12mo	$400,000	$329	45
6334 S Blake St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+11%)	6mo	$375,000	$264	45
6359 S Forest Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+11%)	9mo	$405,000	$285	40
3898 E Palmer St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+11%)	12mo	$399,000	$281	39
3872 E Flower St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+11%)	15mo	$415,000	$292	37
3845 E Flower St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+11%)	22mo	$430,000	$303	31
3878 E Palmer St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+11%)	21mo	$396,000	$279	30
3816 E Palmer St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+11%)	21mo	$410,000	$289	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $176,306
• Equity at exit: $390,706

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $553,604
• Equity at exit: $787,643

Cash invested: $139,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,017 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,612
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,561/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-696

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,898

Max offer price $375,091

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-414	-5% $-555	+0% $-696	+5% $-837	+10% $-978
Rent	-10% $-934	-5% $-815	+0% $-696	+5% $-577	+10% $-457
Rate	-1.0pp $-445	-0.5pp $-569	base $-696	+0.5pp $-825	+1.0pp $-956

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,500
• Closing costs: $14,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6659 S Cartier Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,300	$1.38	19d	1	0.06mi
6686 S St Andrews Way Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.5	1764	$5,100	$2.89	45d	1	0.21mi
6334 S Blake St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,100	$1.48	45d	1	0.61mi
3808 E Flower Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1628	$2,095	$1.29	6d	1	0.68mi
3725 E Meadowview Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,750	$1.96	26d	1	0.72mi
3443 E Riopelle Ave Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,350	$1.83	45d	1	1.09mi
3560 E Merlot St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1777	$4,750	$2.67	45d	1	1.09mi
3462 E Powell Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,295	$1.38	26d	1	1.16mi
3486 E Anika Ct Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1749	$2,600	$1.49	45d	1	1.23mi
3329 E Powell Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,345	$1.58	16d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $130 · $1,560/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $498,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $498,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $498,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,561 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,287 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,726/yr (+$144/mo · 110.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,896
• − Property taxes: −$1,561
• − Insurance: −$2,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,896
• − Management: −$2,896
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$14,487
• Taxable loss: −$17,583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,220
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+283.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $498,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $505,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $509,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Listed $560,000 ARMLS
• 2022-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-13 Sold (MLS) $550,000 ARMLS
• 2022-03-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-02-25 Listed $550,000 ARMLS
• 2017-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $233,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-17 Sold (MLS) $233,000 ARMLS
• 2017-01-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2017-01-19 Price Changed $233,000 ARMLS
• 2017-01-19 Listed $129,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,561 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.