2590 N Arbutus Ct · Midland, MI 48642

$240,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1974 Est $229k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bungalow at the end of a court in a fantastic family friendly neighborhood. Recent updates include new flooring, drywall, paint (interior & amp; exterior) kitchen cabinets and counters and main level bathroom.

Key facts

• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-106/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in MI, #578 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Midland Public Schools (urban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #62 of 540 in MI (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 97 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 320 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (204 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $240k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $192,727 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,920
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3540 E Imrich Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,210 (+2%)	12mo	$235,000	$194	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-44,046
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-57,051
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48642

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,073/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,938

Max offer price $238,444

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $59	+0% $-9	+5% $-77	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-85	+0% $-9	+5% $67	+10% $143
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $52	base $-9	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-10
   remarks 209-char remark
2. 2026-06-10
   listed $240,000 Under Contract

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,073 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,885 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: +$811/yr (+$68/mo · 39.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$2,073
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,025
• After-tax cash flow: $920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2623820
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,844
• Composite: 48.67/100
• National rank: #2105
• State rank: #62 of 540 in MI

Livability — Midland

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #578

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Midland County · 66,531 people
• City population: 66,531
• Metro: Midland, MI
• Population (ZIP): 34,039
• Household income: $77,847
• Rent vs Own: 25.3% rent · 74.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 935.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,968 people
• By 2030: 83,368 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 80,713 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 76,698 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 67,617 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 57,529 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: R (+15.2) · D 41.6% · R 56.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.2 2020: R+14.6 2016: R+19.4 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.89%
• Current HPI: 192.0812
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.60%
• Metro: Midland, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+189.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $240,000 FSBO.com
• 2017-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $135,100 Public Records
• 1999-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records
• 1991-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,073 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.