19504 Hinkley Dr · Estero, FL 33928

$400,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · Townhouse public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2024 5,527 sqft lot $354/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* GOLF CART NEGOTIABLE * Welcome to 19504 Hinkley Drive in the highly sought-after Verdana Village! This beautifully maintained villa offers over $25,000 in upgrades, including brand-new interior paint, and features a bright, open-concept floor plan designed for comfortable everyday living and effortless entertaining. Enjoy a true resort-style lifestyle with access to Verdana Village's exceptional amenities, including indoor and outdoor pickleball and tennis courts, indoor basketball, a fitness center, movement studio, resort-style pool and spa, restaurant, café, craft lounge, dog park, playground, bocce courts, and an active social calendar. Conveniently located off Corkscrew Road

Key facts

• Dog park
• Fitness center
• Indoor basketball

Tags

• PICKLEBALL AND TENNIS COURTS
• INDOOR BASKETBALL
• FITNESS CENTER
• MOVEMENT STUDIO
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• DOG PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fees; Association fees include cable TV and internet; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball, racquetball, bocce court, basketball court, cabana, dog park, park, sidewalks, restaurant; Gated community with shopping and street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; Faces south; Has view; Has property attached
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built 1 story
• Exterior features: Patio; Lanai; Porch; Screened porch; Outdoor grill; Community pool; Guest house attached; Smoke detector(s); North exposure; Rectangular lot; Municipal irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Den (listed as a room type)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Furnished; Built-in features; Living/dining room; Pantry; High speed internet; Split bedrooms; Separate shower; Shower only; Single hung windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $394k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,209/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $394,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.79%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-15,648
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $11,151
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,209 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$490 /mo · $5,879/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$354
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,094
• Net cashflow: $1,007

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,934

Max offer price $400,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19218 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,000	$1.81	14d	1	0.36mi
19278 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,395	$1.54	3d	1	0.43mi
20285 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,200	$2.91	23d	1	0.59mi
19232 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,800	$1.73	23d	1	0.61mi
20419 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2088	$6,490	$3.11	23d	1	0.65mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$9,000	$4.09	3d	1	0.74mi
20015 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$8,000	$3.63	23d	1	0.82mi
20024 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2081	$6,950	$3.34	23d	1	0.88mi
18315 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,750	$1.70	16d	1	0.89mi
20514 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,700	$3.41	23d	1	0.91mi
18282 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$10,000	$4.70	23d	1	0.93mi
20530 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2099	$5,950	$2.83	23d	1	0.94mi
19712 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2091	$8,500	$4.07	21d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $354 · $4,248/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $400,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $400,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $400,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $400,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $400,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $400,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $400,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $400,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $400,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $400,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $400,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $400,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $400,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,879 · $490/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,879 · $490/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$5,879
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,001
• − Management: −$5,001
• − HOA: −$4,248
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable income: $6,341
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,522
• After-tax cash flow: $10,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $400,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+93.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,879 · +93.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.