44 Apple Meadow Rd · Lorenz Park, NY 12534

$325,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,694 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1920 0.82 ac lot $192/sqft · 15% below area Est $347k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, encompassing 1,542 sq. ft. on a generous . 82 acre lot. This home presents exceptional potential, particularly for first-time homebuyers seeking move in ready property with opportunities for personal customization, though minor cosmetic renovations may be needed. Conveniently situated just 10 minutes from the vibrant Warren Street in Hudson NY, this property is a mere 10 minute drive to Amtrak station and 20 minute to both the New York Thruway and Taconic State Parkway.

Key facts

• 0.82 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $306k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#498 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,741/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1083% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $325k implies a 274% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $305,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.37%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,646
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -6.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 James St	0.28mi	4/1.5	1,702 (+0%)	2mo	$402,500	$236	82
12 Fabiano Blvd	0.29mi	4/1.5	1,660 (-2%)	10mo	$315,000	$190	73
53 James Street St	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,825 (+8%)	6mo	$396,718	$217	64
334 Joslen Blvd	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,677 (-1%)	11mo	$270,000	$161	51
1 Carole Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,781 (+5%)	6mo	$379,500	$213	51
277 Anthony Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,547 (-9%)	12mo	$350,000	$226	48
45 James St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,820 (+7%)	22mo	$460,000	$253	48
305 Maryanne Ave	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,568 (-7%)	20mo	$365,000	$233	43
265 Washington Blvd. Blvd	0.24mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,934 (+14%)	21mo	$411,570	$213	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $290,936
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.33×
• Total profit: $849,311
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12534

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,741 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$512 /mo · $6,146/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$996
• Net cashflow: $1,393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,977

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,577	-5% $1,485	+0% $1,393	+5% $1,301	+10% $1,209
Rent	-10% $1,019	-5% $1,206	+0% $1,393	+5% $1,581	+10% $1,768
Rate	-1.0pp $1,557	-0.5pp $1,476	base $1,393	+0.5pp $1,309	+1.0pp $1,223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
76 N 7th St Hudson, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	837	$3,600	$4.30	15d	47	1.36mi
823-825 Columbia St Unit 3 Hudson, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	44d	1	1.40mi
437 State St Hudson, NY	3.0	3.0	1800	$8,000	$4.44	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   Beautiful home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, encompassing 1,542 sq. ft. on a generous .82 acre lot. This home presents exceptional potential, particularly for first-time homebuyers seeking move in ready property with opportunities for personal customization, though minor cosmetic renovations may be needed. Conveniently situated just 10 minutes from the vibrant Warren Street in Hudson NY, this property is a mere 10 minute drive to Amtrak Station and 20 minute to both the New York Thruway and Taconic State Parkway.

2. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   Beautiful home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, encompassing 1,542 sq. ft. on a generous .82 acre lot. This home presents exceptional potential, particularly for first-time homebuyers seeking move in ready property with opportunities for personal customization, though minor cosmetic renovations may be needed. Conveniently situated just 10 minutes from the vibrant Warren Street in Hudson NY, this property is a mere 10 minute drive to Amtrak Station and 20 minute to both the New York Thruway and Taconic State Parkway.

3. 2026-04-29
   price $325,000 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   Beautiful home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, encompassing 1,542 sq. ft. on a generous .82 acre lot. This home presents exceptional potential, particularly for first-time homebuyers seeking move in ready property with opportunities for personal customization, though minor cosmetic renovations may be needed. Conveniently situated just 10 minutes from the vibrant Warren Street in Hudson NY, this property is a mere 10 minute drive to Amtrak Station and 20 minute to both the New York Thruway and Taconic State Parkway.

4. 2026-04-29
   price $325,000 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   Beautiful home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, encompassing 1,542 sq. ft. on a generous .82 acre lot. This home presents exceptional potential, particularly for first-time homebuyers seeking move in ready property with opportunities for personal customization, though minor cosmetic renovations may be needed. Conveniently situated just 10 minutes from the vibrant Warren Street in Hudson NY, this property is a mere 10 minute drive to Amtrak Station and 20 minute to both the New York Thruway and Taconic State Parkway.

5. 2026-03-11
   listed $350,000 Active 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   Beautiful home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, encompassing 1,542 sq. ft. on a generous .82 acre lot. This home presents exceptional potential, particularly for first-time homebuyers seeking move in ready property with opportunities for personal customization, though minor cosmetic renovations may be needed. Conveniently situated just 10 minutes from the vibrant Warren Street in Hudson NY, this property is a mere 10 minute drive to Amtrak Station and 20 minute to both the New York Thruway and Taconic State Parkway.

6. 2026-03-11
   listed $350,000 Active 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   Beautiful home features 4 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, encompassing 1,542 sq. ft. on a generous .82 acre lot. This home presents exceptional potential, particularly for first-time homebuyers seeking move in ready property with opportunities for personal customization, though minor cosmetic renovations may be needed. Conveniently situated just 10 minutes from the vibrant Warren Street in Hudson NY, this property is a mere 10 minute drive to Amtrak Station and 20 minute to both the New York Thruway and Taconic State Parkway.

7. 2026-02-13
   status Active
8. 2026-02-13
   status Active
9. 2025-12-29
   status Pending
10. 2025-12-29
    status Pending
11. 2025-12-29
    historical
12. 2025-11-21
    price $350,000
13. 2025-11-20
    price $350,000
14. 2025-11-13
    listed $375,000 Active
15. 2025-09-06
    listed $375,000 Active
16. 2000-07-17
    soldstatus $87,000
17. 1999-06-02
    soldstatus $38,500
18. 1999-06-02
    soldstatus $38,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,146 · $512/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,146 · $512/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$6,146
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,551
• − Management: −$4,551
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $12,357
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,966
• After-tax cash flow: $13,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson City School District
• NCES district ID: 3614940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,663
• Composite: 36.03/100
• National rank: #4779
• State rank: #494 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lorenz Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #498
• US rank: #8738

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lorenz Park, NY
• County: Columbia County · 17,176 people
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,176
• Household income: $72,741
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1083.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.98%
• Current HPI: 490.0412
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+744.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $325,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $325,000 Global MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $350,000 Global MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $350,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2025-12-29 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2025-12-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-12-29 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $350,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $350,000 Global MLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $375,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-06 Listed $375,000 Global MLS
• 2000-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records
• 1999-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,146 · +25.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.