513 Fairground Rd · West Winfield, NY 13491

$215,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1948 0.26 ac lot $101/sqft · 15% below area Est $254k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in this classic 1948 two-story Colonial offering 2,124 square feet of living space. Situated on a desirable corner lot at Fairground Rd and Fairview Drive, this property provides a strong foundation for customization and value enhancement. The home features 4 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, with a traditional layout that offers flexibility for a variety of living arrangements. A spacious living area, formal dining space, and generous room sizes throughout create a solid canvas for updates and improvements. Exterior highlights include a large, fully fenced backyard—ideal for outdoor enjoyment, entertaining, or future landscaping projects. The property also includes a 2-s

Key facts

• Corner lot
• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with electricity; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: 2-story house; Resale property; Shingle roof
• Construction: Block foundation; Frame construction with vinyl siding; Insulation: blown-in, spray foam, attic/crawl hatchway insulation; Concrete elements; Structural insulated panels; Salvaged materials used (green feature)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Corner, rectangular lot; Outbuilding storage/shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry (kitchen storage)
• Bedrooms: 9 total rooms including laundry, recreation, basement and den
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil-fired forced air heating
• Interior features: Breakfast area; Den; Formal dining room; Pantry; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-409 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (33.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#734 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mount Markham Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #393 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mount Markham Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 449 students, 55% FRL); Mount Markham Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #503 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 304 students, 52% FRL); Mount Markham Senior High School (math 92% / reading 72%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 314 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $215k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $142,692 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.16%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,202
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -15.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
479 E Main St	0.21mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,187 (+3%)	20mo	$245,000	$112	62
283 North St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,038 (-4%)	6mo	$210,000	$103	58
413 Curtis Ave	0.49mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,364 (+11%)	13mo	$218,950	$93	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $27,502
• Equity at exit: $126,053

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $104,042
• Equity at exit: $221,117

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13491

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,432 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$324 /mo · $3,886/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,951

Max offer price $142,692

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-288	-5% $-348	+0% $-409	+5% $-470	+10% $-531
Rent	-10% $-522	-5% $-466	+0% $-409	+5% $-353	+10% $-296
Rate	-1.0pp $-301	-0.5pp $-355	base $-409	+0.5pp $-465	+1.0pp $-522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $215,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $215,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $215,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $215,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 32 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $215,000 Active 1176-char remark
19. 1999-08-30
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,886 · $324/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,886 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,886
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,375
• − Management: −$1,375
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$8,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,117
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Markham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630930
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,456
• Composite: 42.3/100
• National rank: #3262
• State rank: #393 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Winfield

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #14006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Winfield, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,570

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.32%
• Current HPI: 312.5861
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+207.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $215,000 CNYIS
• 1999-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,886 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.