11756 White Cedar St · Willis, TX 77318

$148,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2022 2,099 sqft lot Est $141k · 5% over $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two years old, two story, two bedroom and one bath house in a nice neighborhood. Large open concept living area with lots of natural light which provides a wonderful sense of space.

Key facts

• No flooding
• Own yard
• 2,099 sq ft lot

Tags

• OWN YARD
• NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
• ACCESS TO LAKE CONROE
• OUTSTANDING FISHING PIER
• 2700 SQFT COMMUNITY CENTER
• NO FLOODING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Walnut Cove POA; Quarterly association fee of $60; Association fee covers common areas and recreation facilities; Community pool; Association amenities include basketball court, boat dock, boat ramp, sport court, dog park, picnic area, playground, park, pool, boat slip

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Built in 2022
• Construction: Wood siding; Unknown construction material listed; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Subdivision setting; Backs to greenbelt/park; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Bath in primary bedroom; Tub with shower; Walk-in pantry; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s); Programmable thermostat; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 12 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $148k implies a 4129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.76%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,608
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11712 White Cedar St	0.11mi	2/1.0	855 (+3%)	2mo	$145,000	$170	85
11192 Apple Tree St	0.26mi	2/1.5	858 (+3%)	7mo	$139,999	$163	75
11682 Vistawood	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	840 (+1%)	23mo	$138,000	$164	71
11387 Underwood St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	930 (+12%)	6mo	$156,900	$169	63
11927 Nelwood	0.12mi	2/2.0	949 (+14%)	11mo	$148,900	$157	62
10088 Calendar St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	930 (+12%)	1mo	$159,900	$172	58
9765 Black Gum	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (+8%)	15mo	$151,900	$169	56
12032 Canal St	0.40mi	2/1.0	786 (-6%)	17mo	$110,000	$140	54
10091 Calendar St	0.34mi	2/1.0	930 (+12%)	23mo	$125,000	$134	42
9496 Walkwood St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	920 (+11%)	22mo	$156,800	$170	41
15236 Starboard Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0	950 (+14%)	7mo	$185,000	$195	36
15108 Starboard Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0	936 (+12%)	15mo	$159,000	$170	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-15,865
• Equity at exit: $22,067

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-15,105
• Equity at exit: $12,796

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,176/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,315

Max offer price $148,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $241	+0% $199	+5% $157	+10% $115
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $137	+0% $199	+5% $261	+10% $323
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $237	base $199	+0.5pp $161	+1.0pp $122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	45d	1	0.05mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	45d	1	0.05mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	45d	1	0.05mi
9992 Calendar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	45d	1	0.26mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	4d	1	0.27mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	0.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $148,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $148,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $148,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $148,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $148,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 687-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $148,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,176 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,708 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$532/yr (+$44/mo · 24.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$2,176
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable income: $47
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11
• After-tax cash flow: $2,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4128.6% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $148,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-22 Rental Removed $1,399 HARMLS
• 2025-03-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $1,399 HARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listed for Rent $1,430 HARMLS
• 2024-11-18 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-09-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-07-27 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-25 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-16 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-08-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-24 Listed $147,900 HARMLS
• 2022-07-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-05-24 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2021-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-08-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-08-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-08-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-08-05 Listed $20,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-05 Listed $20,000 HARMLS
• 2020-11-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-11-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-11-07 Listed $15,000 HARMLS
• 2019-11-07 Listed $15,000 HARMLS
• 2017-06-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-06-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-06-08 Listed $12,399 HARMLS
• 2017-06-08 Listed $12,399 HARMLS
• 2017-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $3,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+28.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,176 · -14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.