5 Twain Ct · Tonawanda Town, NY 14150

$229,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,750 sqft · Townhouse · 3 Days on market

Built 1942 Excellent condition 5,437 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to one of Tonawanda's best kept secrets. This fully gut renovated two family sits directly across from a beautiful golf course and has been completely rebuilt from top to bottom, making it feel more like a brand new home than a resale property. Completed in 2026, the renovation includes all new plumbing, electrical, roof, windows, drywall, lighting, flooring, kitchens, bathrooms, and finishes throughout. Both units feature brand new central air conditioning systems, and since the renovation was completed, no one has lived in either unit. Everything is brand new and ready for its first owners or tenants. Just 2 minutes from the Thruway and only a block away from shopping, dining, and

Key facts

• Gut renovated
• New drywall
• New plumbing

Tags

• GUT RENOVATED
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW DRYWALL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two-unit multi-family property with separate gas and electric meters; Operating expense details: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 space; Paved parking with two or more spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story building; Multi-unit property with 2 separate units
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Crawl space foundation; Existing (resale) property
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Open porch; Fully fenced yard; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 78 x 69

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher (one unit)
• Bedrooms: One unit with 2 bedrooms; one unit with 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total (one full bath in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic
• Laundry & utility: In-unit washer and dryer (laundry in unit); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $229k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $641 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,815/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1427% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $229,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.99%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $14,773
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $114,448
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	23d	1	1.04mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $229,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-07
   listed $229,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,702
• − Management: −$2,702
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $4,301
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,032
• After-tax cash flow: $6,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This fully gut-renovated two-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The home is move-in ready and has been completely rebuilt from top to bottom, making it feel more like a brand new home than a resale property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $229,000 WNYREIS