24458 W Gregory Rd · Buckeye, AZ 85326

$267,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2015 6,625 sqft lot $235/sqft · 19% below area Est $329k · 19% under $98/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3 bedroom, two bath home conveniently located on a premium lot with no neighbors to the rear. This home features a roomy kitchen that is open to the great room. The beautiful back yard includes a large concrete patio and extensive, lush artificial turf - great for entertaining or spending family time. Refrigerator in kitchen photo does not stay. Property is sold ''as-is, where-is'' with no reps or warranties. Seller will provide no CLUES or SPDS rpts. Seller will not pay for any fees associated with HOA transfer. Buyer may choose own title company. Buyer will be responsible for all title and escrow fees. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee)

Key facts

• Large concrete patio
• Roomy kitchen
• Premium lot

Tags

• PREMIUM LOT
• ROOMY KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• LARGE CONCRETE PATIO
• LUSH ARTIFICIAL TURF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $267k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Buckeye Union High School District (4284) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #129 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Steven R. Jasinski Elementary School (math 23% / reading 29%, grade F, #623 of 1,109 statewide, top 57%, 751 students, 59% FRL); Buckeye Union High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #242 of 381 statewide, top 64%, 1,775 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 1210 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,856 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.01%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,504
• List price: $267,000
• Delta: -18.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24466 W Pueblo Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+13%)	0mo	$305,000	$238	62
24756 W Jessica Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,303 (+15%)	21mo	$340,000	$261	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-61,091
• Equity at exit: $39,811

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-91,293
• Equity at exit: $23,085

Cash invested: $74,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85326

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 1210
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,400
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,885/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$98
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,236

Max offer price $233,855

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-36	-5% $-112	+0% $-188	+5% $-263	+10% $-339
Rent	-10% $-346	-5% $-267	+0% $-188	+5% $-109	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-120	base $-188	+0.5pp $-257	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,750
• Closing costs: $8,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4195 S 245th Dr Buckeye, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.0	1552	$1,954	$1.26	0d	16	0.37mi
24934 W Dove Trail Buckeye, AZ	4.0	2.0	1460	$1,695	$1.16	25d	1	0.72mi
25067 W Dove Trail Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,800	$1.23	12d	1	0.87mi
4533 S 236th Dr Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,800	$1.36	0d	1	1.04mi
23742 W Hidalgo Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,550	$1.18	22d	1	1.09mi
83 5th Ave W Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,669	$1.35	45d	1	1.42mi
24458 W Verlea Dr Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,098	$1.56	0d	1	1.42mi
95 5th Ave W Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,700	$1.21	0d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $98 · $1,176/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-16
   listed $279,500 Active 676-char remark

   Show marketing remark (676 chars)

   Nice 3 bedroom, two bath home conveniently located on a premium lot with no neighbors to the rear. This home features a roomy kitchen that is open to the great room. The beautiful back yard includes a large concrete patio and extensive, lush artificial turf - great for entertaining or spending family time. Refrigerator in kitchen photo does not stay. Property is sold ''as-is, where-is'' with no reps or warranties. Seller will provide no CLUES or SPDS rpts. Seller will not pay for any fees associated with HOA transfer. Buyer may choose own title company. Buyer will be responsible for all title and escrow fees. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee)

2. 2025-10-14
   historical
3. 2025-10-10
   price $220,000
4. 2025-07-30
   listed $300,000 Active
5. 2023-07-12
   soldstatus $305,000 Closed
6. 2023-07-12
   soldstatus $305,000
7. 2023-06-03
   status Pending
8. 2023-05-26
   listed $310,000 Active
9. 2019-03-15
   soldstatus $180,000 Closed
10. 2019-03-15
    soldstatus $180,000
11. 2019-02-11
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
12. 2019-02-04
    price $180,000
13. 2019-01-21
    listed $185,000 Active
14. 2015-10-02
    soldstatus $146,900 Closed
15. 2015-07-29
    listed $146,900
16. 2015-07-29
    historical
17. 2014-07-31
    soldstatus $3,630,000
18. 2010-12-23
    soldstatus $2,200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,885 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,885 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 82% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥115°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,956
• − Property taxes: −$1,885
• − Insurance: −$1,335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − HOA: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$7,767
• Taxable loss: −$6,974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $-578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buckeye Union High School District (4284)
• NCES district ID: 0401410
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $59,182
• Composite: 22.91/100
• National rank: #7995
• State rank: #129 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 75,359
• Household income: $89,876
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 38% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.00%
• Current HPI: 286.9242
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.92%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-87.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $279,500 ARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $220,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $300,000 ARMLS
• 2023-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-12 Sold (MLS) $305,000 ARMLS
• 2023-06-03 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-05-26 Listed $310,000 ARMLS
• 2019-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-15 Sold (MLS) $180,000 ARMLS
• 2019-02-11 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2019-02-04 Price Changed $180,000 ARMLS
• 2019-01-21 Listed $185,000 ARMLS
• 2015-10-02 Sold (MLS) $146,900 ARMLS
• 2015-07-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-07-29 Listed $146,900 ARMLS
• 2014-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $3,630,000 Public Records
• 2010-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $2,200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,885 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.