21 Holzman Dr · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$925,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1973 0.32 ac lot $1001/sqft · 8% above area Est $859k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move In Ready. This Updated Ranch Has Everything You Need And Close To The Water. Light And Bright Living Room, Granite And Stainless Kitchen, 3 Bedrooms, Central Air Conditioning, Garage And Beautiful Backyard With Heated Inground Pool And Gazebo. Minutes To Everything., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:No

Key facts

• Private retreat
• Open-concept living
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• HEATED SALTWATER POOL
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPE
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MARINAS
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $925k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $925k).
• Recommended offer: $897k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,621/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $259k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($897k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $436k; list at $925k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $897,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.07%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $858,704
• List price: $925,000
• Delta: 7.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
162 Wakeman Rd	0.62mi	2/3.0 (-1)	963 (+4%)	23mo	$920,000	$955	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $25,369
• Equity at exit: $137,921

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $412,838
• Equity at exit: $79,977

Cash invested: $259,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,621 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,851
• Tax from tax record: −$406 /mo · $4,876/yr
• Insurance: −$385
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,020
• Net cashflow: $1,958

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,142

Max offer price $925,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,482	-5% $2,220	+0% $1,958	+5% $1,697	+10% $1,435
Rent	-10% $1,198	-5% $1,578	+0% $1,958	+5% $2,338	+10% $2,718
Rate	-1.0pp $2,424	-0.5pp $2,194	base $1,958	+0.5pp $1,719	+1.0pp $1,475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $231,250
• Closing costs: $27,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Canal St Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	584	$11,000	$18.84	19d	1	0.37mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	25d	1	0.41mi
62 Canoe Place Rd #627 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	661	$4,500	$6.81	44d	1	0.67mi
20A Columbine Ave N Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1073	$10,000	$9.32	15d	1	0.77mi
3 Windmill Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	997	$5,000	$5.02	5d	1	0.82mi
12 Ridge Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$20,000	$22.22	44d	1	0.95mi
11 Oakhurst Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$35,000	$33.14	25d	1	1.17mi
11A Oakhurst Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$50,000	$50.00	25d	1	1.18mi
164 W Montauk Hwy Hampton Bays, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	610	$4,195	$6.88	44d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $925,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $925,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $925,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $925,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $940,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $940,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $940,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $940,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $940,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $940,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $940,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $940,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $940,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $940,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    listed $940,000 Active 881-char remark
16. 2026-01-22
    historical
17. 2025-09-18
    price $950,000
18. 2025-07-21
    listed $969,000 Active
19. 2019-07-09
    soldstatus $436,500
20. 2019-06-13
    soldstatus $436,500 Closed

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Move In Ready. This Updated Ranch Has Everything You Need And Close To The Water. Light And Bright Living Room, Granite And Stainless Kitchen, 3 Bedrooms, Central Air Conditioning, Garage And Beautiful Backyard With Heated Inground Pool And Gazebo. Minutes To Everything., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:No

21. 2019-04-29
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Move In Ready. This Updated Ranch Has Everything You Need And Close To The Water. Light And Bright Living Room, Granite And Stainless Kitchen, 3 Bedrooms, Central Air Conditioning, Garage And Beautiful Backyard With Heated Inground Pool And Gazebo. Minutes To Everything., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:No

22. 2018-11-04
    price $468,000

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Move In Ready. This Updated Ranch Has Everything You Need And Close To The Water. Light And Bright Living Room, Granite And Stainless Kitchen, 3 Bedrooms, Central Air Conditioning, Garage And Beautiful Backyard With Heated Inground Pool And Gazebo. Minutes To Everything., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:No

23. 2018-09-15
    price $478,000

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Move In Ready. This Updated Ranch Has Everything You Need And Close To The Water. Light And Bright Living Room, Granite And Stainless Kitchen, 3 Bedrooms, Central Air Conditioning, Garage And Beautiful Backyard With Heated Inground Pool And Gazebo. Minutes To Everything., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:No

24. 2018-06-29
    price $485,000

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Move In Ready. This Updated Ranch Has Everything You Need And Close To The Water. Light And Bright Living Room, Granite And Stainless Kitchen, 3 Bedrooms, Central Air Conditioning, Garage And Beautiful Backyard With Heated Inground Pool And Gazebo. Minutes To Everything., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:No

25. 2018-05-18
    price $499,000

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Move In Ready. This Updated Ranch Has Everything You Need And Close To The Water. Light And Bright Living Room, Granite And Stainless Kitchen, 3 Bedrooms, Central Air Conditioning, Garage And Beautiful Backyard With Heated Inground Pool And Gazebo. Minutes To Everything., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:No

26. 2018-04-29
    listed $510,000 New

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Move In Ready. This Updated Ranch Has Everything You Need And Close To The Water. Light And Bright Living Room, Granite And Stainless Kitchen, 3 Bedrooms, Central Air Conditioning, Garage And Beautiful Backyard With Heated Inground Pool And Gazebo. Minutes To Everything., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:No

27. 2005-03-24
    soldstatus $453,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,876 · $406/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,254 · $855/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,378/yr (+$448/mo · 110.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $115,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$51,814
• − Property taxes: −$4,876
• − Insurance: −$4,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,236
• − Management: −$9,236
• − Depreciation: −$26,909
• Taxable income: $8,759
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,102
• After-tax cash flow: $21,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+104.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $925,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $940,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Listed $969,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $436,500 Public Records
• 2019-06-13 Sold (MLS) $436,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-04 Price Changed $468,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-15 Price Changed $478,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-29 Price Changed $485,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-18 Price Changed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-29 Listed $510,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $453,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,876 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.