857 E 21st St · Erie, PA 16503

$48,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,772 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1882 2,100 sqft lot $27/sqft · 28% below area Est $66k · 28% under ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTORS SPECIAL! Pack your tool bag and get to work. Major Potential , this can be a nice investment property for someone looking to add to there portfolio or even a Fix and Flip. This Could possibly be fully converted into a 2 unit also. Kitchen and Bathroom Area on First and Second Floor. Two Bedrooms on Lower Level and two Bedrooms on Upper Level.

Key facts

• 2,100 sq ft lot
• Built 1882
• Listed 24 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Aluminum siding and frame construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Carpet, laminate, and vinyl flooring; Full exterior-entry basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $509 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($332 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1882 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $47,280 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1882 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.46%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,412
• List price: $48,000
• Delta: -27.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
530 East 28th St	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,777 (+0%)	8mo	$50,000	$28	60
915 E 22 St	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,600 (-10%)	20mo	$55,000	$34	58
755 E 11th St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,736 (-2%)	5mo	$37,000	$21	56
704 E 24th St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,635 (-8%)	16mo	$30,000	$18	56
1224 E 22nd St	0.46mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,584 (-11%)	1mo	$120,000	$76	53
1007 E 28th St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,842 (+4%)	16mo	$142,000	$77	52
2810 Perry St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,960 (+11%)	2mo	$200,000	$102	50
760 E 13th St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,685 (-5%)	20mo	$92,000	$55	44
2409 Pennsylvania Ave	0.35mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,520 (-14%)	18mo	$89,900	$59	38
943 E 28th St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,526 (-14%)	18mo	$130,000	$85	36
933 E 31st St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,546 (-13%)	10mo	$170,000	$110	36
725 E 11th St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,568 (-12%)	13mo	$72,000	$46	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $45,554
• Equity at exit: $29,360

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.10×
• Total profit: $108,881
• Equity at exit: $52,552

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16503

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,034/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $453

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	43d	1	0.32mi
223 E 9th St Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,300	$0.83	43d	1	1.16mi
622 E 4th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	1.24mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   price $48,000 354-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $65,000 Active 354-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,034 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,034 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$1,034
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,054
• − Management: −$1,054
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $5,704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,369
• After-tax cash flow: $4,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,204

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · India, Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.73%
• Current HPI: 135.5955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-26.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $48,000 GEBOR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $65,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,034 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.