205 Cimarron Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,383 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2022 7,998 sqft lot $90/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. The move-in ready Amelia floor plan is a spacious, single-story retreat. An array of incredible upgrades are included upon moving in, such as energy-efficient Whirlpool® kitchen appliances, granite countertops, 36” upper cabinets with crown molding, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two-car garage. This sizable home features an open-concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The completed master suite features with a walk-in closet, as well as its own full bathroom. Located in the amenity-rich community of Poinciana, homeowners are only a few steps away from world-class amenities.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Covered back patio
• Walk in closet

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN CLOSET
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• COVERED BACK PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,735 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.70%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-37,885
• Equity at exit: $54,655

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-45,467
• Equity at exit: $52,673

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,027 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,048/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,227

Max offer price $222,164

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,085	$1.25	19d	1	0.07mi
245 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,125	$1.71	23d	1	0.09mi
237 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,950	$1.25	23d	1	0.10mi
423 Churchill Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1711	$1,975	$1.15	23d	1	0.14mi
802 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,090	$1.25	12d	1	0.34mi
3181 Viceroy Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1610	$1,900	$1.18	3d	1	0.38mi
642 Desmoines Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1826	$1,975	$1.08	3d	1	0.41mi
935 Cumberland Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,599	$1.27	14d	1	0.50mi
1167 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1868	$1,875	$1.00	14d	1	0.51mi
943 Cumberland Dr Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,695	$1.32	23d	1	0.54mi
994 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,825	$1.10	23d	1	0.57mi
1144 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	23d	1	0.59mi
1142 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,700	$1.32	23d	1	0.59mi
1157 Hudson Harbor Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,850	$1.14	23d	1	0.65mi
650 Hudson Valley Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,734	$1.10	3d	1	0.65mi
1019 N Platte Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,595	$1.09	23d	1	0.76mi
1388 N Platte Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$1,850	$1.01	10d	1	0.85mi
2129 Hibiscus Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$2,100	$1.19	3d	1	0.99mi
344 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,825	$1.09	3d	1	1.01mi
337 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,980	$1.19	14d	1	1.04mi
325 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,995	$1.24	3d	1	1.08mi
260 Hyacinth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,765	$1.26	23d	1	1.10mi
263 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,750	$1.09	14d	1	1.12mi
260 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,065	$1.24	3d	1	1.15mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	23d	1	1.15mi
207 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,855	$1.16	3d	1	1.20mi
119 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,095	$1.25	23d	1	1.22mi
210 Goldenrod Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,875	$1.15	23d	1	1.22mi
108 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,000	$1.24	14d	1	1.23mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	3d	1	1.25mi
1601 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,550	$1.68	10d	1	1.28mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	23d	1	1.29mi
1563 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,400	$1.33	14d	1	1.29mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	3d	1	1.30mi
1631 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,500	$1.42	23d	1	1.30mi
1631 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,500	$1.42	3d	1	1.30mi
1560 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,395	$1.51	23d	1	1.33mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	14d	1	1.33mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,005	$1.08	3d	1	1.33mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,970	$1.06	3d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   status Active
3. 2026-03-02
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-21
   listed $250,000 Active
5. 2025-09-22
   historical $1,500
6. 2025-09-20
   historical
7. 2025-09-17
   price $1,500
8. 2025-09-16
   price $235,000
9. 2025-09-04
   listed $1,780
10. 2025-07-23
    price $245,000
11. 2025-07-15
    price $255,000
12. 2025-07-09
    price $315,000
13. 2025-06-24
    listed $325,000 Active
14. 2023-10-04
    historical $2,300
15. 2023-08-01
    price $2,300
16. 2023-07-27
    listed $2,400
17. 2022-05-24
    soldstatus $323,900 Closed 635-char remark

    Show marketing remark (635 chars)

    Under Construction. The move-in ready Amelia floor plan is a spacious, single-story retreat. An array of incredible upgrades are included upon moving in, such as energy-efficient Whirlpool® kitchen appliances, granite countertops, 36” upper cabinets with crown molding, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two-car garage. This sizable home features an open-concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The completed master suite features with a walk-in closet, as well as its own full bathroom. Located in the amenity-rich community of Poinciana, homeowners are only a few steps away from world-class amenities.

18. 2022-04-01
    status Pending 635-char remark

    Show marketing remark (635 chars)

    Under Construction. The move-in ready Amelia floor plan is a spacious, single-story retreat. An array of incredible upgrades are included upon moving in, such as energy-efficient Whirlpool® kitchen appliances, granite countertops, 36” upper cabinets with crown molding, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two-car garage. This sizable home features an open-concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The completed master suite features with a walk-in closet, as well as its own full bathroom. Located in the amenity-rich community of Poinciana, homeowners are only a few steps away from world-class amenities.

19. 2022-03-03
    listed $323,900 Active 635-char remark

    Show marketing remark (635 chars)

    Under Construction. The move-in ready Amelia floor plan is a spacious, single-story retreat. An array of incredible upgrades are included upon moving in, such as energy-efficient Whirlpool® kitchen appliances, granite countertops, 36” upper cabinets with crown molding, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two-car garage. This sizable home features an open-concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The completed master suite features with a walk-in closet, as well as its own full bathroom. Located in the amenity-rich community of Poinciana, homeowners are only a few steps away from world-class amenities.

20. 2021-03-30
    soldstatus $95,000
21. 2016-01-07
    soldstatus $6,300
22. 2016-01-04
    soldstatus $6,250 Closed
23. 2015-09-16
    listed $10,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,048 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,048 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,048
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,946
• − Management: −$1,946
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,493
• After-tax cash flow: $-398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2400.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Rental Removed $1,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-09-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $1,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Listed for Rent $1,780 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Listed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-04 Rental Removed $2,300 STELLARMLS
• 2023-08-01 Price Changed $2,300 STELLARMLS
• 2023-07-27 Listed for Rent $2,400 STELLARMLS
• 2022-05-24 Sold (MLS) $323,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-03 Listed $323,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $6,300 Public Records
• 2016-01-04 Sold (MLS) $6,250 Beaches MLS
• 2015-09-16 Listed $10,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+32.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,048 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.