6930 Maple Fox Dr · Houston, TX 77338

$216,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,693 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1977 6,899 sqft lot $128/sqft · 6% below area Est $229k · 6% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready, Spic and Span. This truly exceptional home is packed with upgrades you won’t want to miss. It features energy-efficient double-pane windows (2015) , a newer roof (2022), and a newer air-conditioning system with updated ductwork (2020) for added peace of mind plus circuit breakers updates. The interior has been freshly painted, and the kitchen has been beautifully updated with modern cabinetry, creating a bright and welcoming space. Step outside to enjoy the charming backyard and covered patio with excellent storage—perfect for relaxing or entertaining family and friends. Additional highlights include a transferable warranty on the roof & windows, an updated circuit breaker panel plus it's setup for easy generator connection. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major routes in Humble, this home offers the perfect combination of comfort, thoughtful updates, and a prime location.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Covered patio
• Charming backyard

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEM
• UPDATED DUCTWORK
• UPDATED CIRCUIT BREAKER PANEL
• CHARMING BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-179 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,323 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.56%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,044
• List price: $216,000
• Delta: -5.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6907 Foxhurst Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,693 (0%)	1mo	$189,000	$112	94
20215 Fox Grove Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,684 (-0%)	2mo	$215,000	$128	86
20219 Fox Grove Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,595 (-6%)	1mo	$195,000	$122	77
7315 Foxside Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,677 (-1%)	2mo	$185,000	$110	74
6926 Fox Knoll Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (+12%)	2mo	$229,900	$121	71
7022 Foxbrook Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-8%)	2mo	$179,995	$116	70
7310 Foxwaithe Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,832 (+8%)	2mo	$295,000	$161	70
20402 Clydesdale Ridge Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,872 (+11%)	1mo	$227,500	$122	61
6527 Old Cypress Landing Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,506 (-11%)	0mo	$327,990	$218	60
6614 Old Cypress Landing Ln	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,902 (+12%)	2mo	$306,990	$161	60
6519 Old Cypress Landing Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-14%)	1mo	$273,180	$188	56
21126 Sprouse Cir	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,577 (-7%)	2mo	$226,400	$144	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.77% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-26,906
• Equity at exit: $54,484

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-23,993
• Equity at exit: $59,234

Cash invested: $60,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77338

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,886 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,133
• Tax from tax record: −$417 /mo · $5,007/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,113

Max offer price $184,323

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,000
• Closing costs: $6,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7010 Foxmont Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1722	$1,735	$1.01	44d	1	0.21mi
7214 Foxbend Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1591	$1,995	$1.25	2d	1	0.24mi
7010 Foxmar Ln Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1330	$1,750	$1.32	43d	1	0.30mi
7318 Foxway Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,759	$1.01	24d	1	0.47mi
7507 Kennemer Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1596	$1,766	$1.11	11d	1	0.73mi
7810 Birchbark Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,899	$1.14	24d	1	0.80mi
21235 Grand Field Ct Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1750	$1,800	$1.03	43d	1	0.84mi
20211 Cottonglade Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,699	$1.26	43d	1	0.97mi
20126 Chipplegate Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,800	$1.34	43d	1	1.05mi
19902 Bishops Gate Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,825	$1.16	24d	1	1.21mi
8419 Opalwood Ln Unit Main Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,482	$1.19	18d	1	1.35mi
19815 Kenswick Dr Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,756	$1.88	3d	62	1.36mi
20327 Bridgedale Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,786	$1.46	7d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $216,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $216,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $216,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $216,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $216,500 Active 49 DOM

   Show marketing remark (937 chars)

   Move in ready, Spic and Span. This truly exceptional home is packed with upgrades you won’t want to miss. It features energy-efficient double-pane windows (2015) , a newer roof (2022), and a newer air-conditioning system with updated ductwork (2020) for added peace of mind plus circuit breakers updates. The interior has been freshly painted, and the kitchen has been beautifully updated with modern cabinetry, creating a bright and welcoming space. Step outside to enjoy the charming backyard and covered patio with excellent storage—perfect for relaxing or entertaining family and friends. Additional highlights include a transferable warranty on the roof & windows, an updated circuit breaker panel plus it's setup for easy generator connection. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major routes in Humble, this home offers the perfect combination of comfort, thoughtful updates, and a prime location.

6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $216,500 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $216,500 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $216,500 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $216,500 Active 42 DOM

   Show marketing remark (937 chars)

   Move in ready, Spic and Span. This truly exceptional home is packed with upgrades you won’t want to miss. It features energy-efficient double-pane windows (2015) , a newer roof (2022), and a newer air-conditioning system with updated ductwork (2020) for added peace of mind plus circuit breakers updates. The interior has been freshly painted, and the kitchen has been beautifully updated with modern cabinetry, creating a bright and welcoming space. Step outside to enjoy the charming backyard and covered patio with excellent storage—perfect for relaxing or entertaining family and friends. Additional highlights include a transferable warranty on the roof & windows, an updated circuit breaker panel plus it's setup for easy generator connection. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major routes in Humble, this home offers the perfect combination of comfort, thoughtful updates, and a prime location.

10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $217,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $217,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $217,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $217,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $217,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $217,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    price $218,500 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    Move in ready, Spic and Span. This truly exceptional home is packed with upgrades you won’t want to miss. It features energy-efficient double-pane windows (2015) , a newer roof (2022), and a newer air-conditioning system with updated ductwork (2020) for added peace of mind plus circuit breakers updates. The interior has been freshly painted, and the kitchen has been beautifully updated with modern cabinetry, creating a bright and welcoming space. Step outside to enjoy the charming backyard and covered patio with excellent storage—perfect for relaxing or entertaining family and friends. Additional highlights include a transferable warranty on the roof & windows, an updated circuit breaker panel plus it's setup for easy generator connection. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major routes in Humble, this home offers the perfect combination of comfort, thoughtful updates, and a prime location.

17. 2026-04-27
    listed $219,000 Active 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    Move in ready, Spic and Span. This truly exceptional home is packed with upgrades you won’t want to miss. It features energy-efficient double-pane windows (2015) , a newer roof (2022), and a newer air-conditioning system with updated ductwork (2020) for added peace of mind plus circuit breakers updates. The interior has been freshly painted, and the kitchen has been beautifully updated with modern cabinetry, creating a bright and welcoming space. Step outside to enjoy the charming backyard and covered patio with excellent storage—perfect for relaxing or entertaining family and friends. Additional highlights include a transferable warranty on the roof & windows, an updated circuit breaker panel plus it's setup for easy generator connection. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major routes in Humble, this home offers the perfect combination of comfort, thoughtful updates, and a prime location.

18. 2026-04-14
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-08
    status Pending
20. 2026-04-08
    historical
21. 2026-04-02
    price $218,500
22. 2026-03-13
    listed $219,000 Active
23. 2026-03-12
    historical
24. 2026-03-09
    price $219,000
25. 2026-02-08
    listed $225,000 Active
26. 2014-12-24
    soldstatus
27. 2014-12-23
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2014-12-22
    status Pending
29. 2014-12-09
    status Pending, Continue to Show
30. 2014-12-02
    status Option Pending
31. 2014-11-26
    listed $100,000 Active
32. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,007 · $417/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,007 · $417/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,099
• − Property taxes: −$5,007
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$6,284
• Taxable loss: −$5,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,395
• After-tax cash flow: $-757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,031
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2620.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% Black 34% Two or more races 18% White 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Armenian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 35% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Current HPI: 245.7087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+116.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $216,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $216,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $217,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $218,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $21,800 HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $218,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $218,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2014-12-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-12-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-12-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-12-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-11-26 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,007 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.