Carlyle Plan · East Avon, NY 14414

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 553 Days on market

Average condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 553 days

🏗️ New construction. The $124,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $57,566.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $958 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,004 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Avon Central School District (town): math 53% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #349 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $398 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 553 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 553 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.34%
• DSCR: 4.17
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,566
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: 116.97%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36 Harper Parkway Pkwy	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	15mo	$64,000	$46	67
27 Hillside Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+8%)	17mo	$117,500	$81	62
100 Hillside Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+8%)	8mo	$117,900	$81	56
70 Parkview Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-14%)	7mo	$55,000	$48	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $51,731
• Equity at exit: $8,583

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.68×
• Total profit: $123,742
• Equity at exit: $4,977

Cash invested: $16,118 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14414

• Home prices YoY: -14.1%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$302
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$72 /mo · $863/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $958

Break-even live

Break-even rent $504

Max offer price $57,566

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,392
• Closing costs: $1,727
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 553 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 552 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 551 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 550 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 548 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 547 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,900 Active 545 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 544 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 543 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 542 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 538 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 537 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 536 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 535 DOM
15. 2024-12-13
    listed $124,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,225
• − Property taxes: −$863
• − Insurance: −$288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − Depreciation: −$1,675
• Taxable income: $11,253
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,701
• After-tax cash flow: $8,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, requiring minor exterior painting and window maintenance to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Clean and maintain the windows — Clean windows can make the home appear more attractive and increase its value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain the windows — Clean windows can make the home appear more attractive and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avon Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603660
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $55,407
• Composite: 44.56/100
• National rank: #2786
• State rank: #349 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Avon

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1004
• US rank: #19541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston County · 6,576 people
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,576
• Household income: $72,006
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 100.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,466 people
• By 2030: 61,966 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 58,398 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 54,955 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 49,958 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 43,944 · -30.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.4) · D 39.3% · R 60.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -21.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.4 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+9.4 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.57%
• Current HPI: 247.7027
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-12-13 Listed $124,900 Zillow