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3779 Moon Hill Rd
D+ Composite 47.47
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +12.4/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.8/5.0
  • DSCR +3.7/10.0
  • 1% rule +3.6/10.0
  • Livability +3.3/5.0
  • Schools +2.8/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.9/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$235,999

3779 Moon Hill Rd · Marion, TX 78132
4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,897 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $124/sqft · 35% below area Est $366k · 35% under $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during special gatherings. An owner's suite is just off the shared living space and features an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, perfect for residents and overnight guests, as well as a versatile bonus room.

Key facts

  • Walk-in closet
  • Open layout
  • En-suite bathroom

Tags

OPEN LAYOUTOWNER'S SUITEEN-SUITE BATHROOMWALK-IN CLOSETVERSATILE BONUS ROOM

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $236k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-466/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (2.4% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (13.6% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $204k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
  • Zoned schools: Hernandez El (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 525 students, 65% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1528 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $203,934 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.86%
Cap rate
6.10%
Cash-on-cash
-0.71%
DSCR
0.97
GRM
9.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$365,821
List price
$235,999
Delta
-35.49%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3763 Moon Hill Rd 0.00mi 4/2.5 1,897 (0%) 3mo $237,999 $125 97
3751 Moon Hill Rd 0.00mi 4/2.5 1,692 (-11%) 3mo $225,999 $134 80
110 Hunter Ridge Rd 0.47mi 4/2.5 1,694 (-11%) 7mo $350,000 $207 55
126 Hunter Ridge Rd 0.50mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,684 (-11%) 1mo $429,000 $255 50
318 Hunter Rdg 0.69mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,948 (+3%) 9mo $485,000 $249 49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-20.9%
Equity multiple
0.29×
Total profit
$-46,651
Equity at exit
$35,188
10-year hold
IRR
-23.3%
Equity multiple
-0.01×
Total profit
$-66,734
Equity at exit
$20,405

Cash invested: $66,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
28 active · 14 under contract
Months of supply
21.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$275,874 ($156/sqft)
Median days on market
73 d
This list price
14% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+23.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78132

Rents YoY
-2.3%
Active inventory
1528
Price-to-rent
9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,039 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,238
Tax est. 1.5%
$295 /mo · $3,540/yr
Insurance
$98
HOA
$19
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$428
Net cashflow
$-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,089
Max offer price $230,376
Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $124 -5% $43 +0% $-39 +5% $-120 +10% $-202
Rent -10% $-200 -5% $-119 +0% $-39 +5% $42 +10% $122
Rate -1.0pp $80 -0.5pp $21 base $-39 +0.5pp $-100 +1.0pp $-162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$59,000
Closing costs
$7,080
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 31 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
109 Harmons Way Unit 109 San Marcos, TX 3.0 3.0 1400 $1,500 $1.07 103d 1 0.35mi
318 Hunter Ridge Rd San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1948 $2,100 $1.08 139d 1 0.70mi
4334 Transportation Way San Marcos, TX 1.0–4.0 1.0–2.0 1040 $1,515 $1.46 6d 16 0.76mi
618 El Rio St San Marcos, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 992 $1,972 $1.99 0d 24 0.79mi
420 El Rio St San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1526 $1,713 $1.12 80d 1 0.87mi
425 El Rio St San Marcos, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1062 $1,937 $1.82 0d 26 0.94mi
156 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.5 1950 $1,995 $1.02 113d 1 0.99mi
156 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.5 1950 $1,995 $1.02 139d 1 0.99mi
144 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1755 $1,975 $1.13 119d 1 1.02mi
208 Shugart St San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1556 $1,899 $1.22 94d 1 1.13mi
139 Spiny Lizard Ln San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1556 $1,899 $1.22 70d 1 1.16mi
204 Rollingwood Dr San Marcos, TX 4.0 2.0 2027 $2,150 $1.06 10d 1 1.21mi
145 Tortoise Trl San Marcos, TX 4.0 2.5 2196 $2,100 $0.96 139d 1 1.22mi
502 Commercial Loop San Marcos, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–3.0 1222 $2,550 $2.09 4d 46 1.23mi
1158 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.5 1300 $1,750 $1.35 43d 1 1.34mi
435 Spiny Lizard Ln San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 2021 $2,150 $1.06 119d 1 1.38mi
233 William Moon Way San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.5 2102 $2,100 $1.00 56d 1 1.41mi
1121 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1424 $1,795 $1.26 40d 1 1.41mi
250 Sage Meadows Dr San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1556 $1,950 $1.25 110d 1 1.41mi
1052 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.5 1300 $1,769 $1.36 0d 1 1.43mi
133 Netherland St San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2275 $2,195 $0.96 94d 1 1.44mi
249 Sage Meadows Dr San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1462 $1,875 $1.28 10d 1 1.45mi
634 Jane Long Dr San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2275 $2,150 $0.95 43d 1 1.46mi
626 Jane Long Dr San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2044 $2,000 $0.98 10d 1 1.47mi
629 Jane Long Dr San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2164 $2,100 $0.97 43d 1 1.49mi
313 Merriman Rd San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2164 $1,995 $0.92 10d 1 1.49mi
115 Rosa Rd San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2186 $2,195 $1.00 80d 1 1.50mi
115 Rosa Rd San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2186 $2,195 $1.00 74d 1 1.50mi
115 Rosa Rd San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2164 $2,195 $1.01 68d 1 1.50mi
217 Snowbell St San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.5 2338 $2,150 $0.92 43d 1 1.50mi
133 Camino Verde San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1931 $2,600 $1.35 100d 1 1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info
Down payment resources available
HOA & community
Mandatory HOAHOA fee $112.50 semi-annuallyAssociation transfer fee $450Subdivision: Steelwood Trails

Exterior

Parking
2-car garage
Utilities
Water system (GBRA)Sewer system (SHWSC)Gas service: UnigasElectric service: NBUGarbage service: Frontier
Home design
New construction by Lennar
Construction
Slab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features
Brick, siding, and cement fiber exterior

Interior

Kitchen
Stove/RangeDishwasherKitchen dimensions: 14 x 10
Bedrooms
Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 12 x 12Bedroom 3: 12 x 12Bedroom 4: 10 x 14Master bedroom dimensions: 11 x 13
Flooring
CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms
Two full bathrooms and one half bathroomMaster bath with shower only and single vanity
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric and natural gas)Central air conditioning
Interior features
Open floor planTwo living areasBreakfast barGame roomUtility room insideLaundry room (main level)Walk-in closets
Laundry & utility
Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry on main level

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-25
    days on market $235,999 Active 128 DOM
  2. 2026-08-24
    days on market $235,999 Active 127 DOM
  3. 2026-08-23
    days on market $235,999 Active 126 DOM
  4. 2026-08-22
    days on market $235,999 Active 125 DOM
  5. 2026-08-21
    statusdays on market $235,999 Active 124 DOM
  6. 2026-08-20
    days on market $235,999 Price Change 123 DOM
  7. 2026-08-19
    days on market $235,999 Price Change 122 DOM
  8. 2026-08-18
    days on market $235,999 Price Change 121 DOM
  9. 2026-08-17
    days on market $235,999 Price Change 120 DOM
  10. 2026-08-16
    days on market $235,999 Price Change 119 DOM
  11. 2026-08-15
    days on market $235,999 Price Change 118 DOM
  12. 2026-08-14
    days on market $235,999 Price Change 117 DOM
  13. 2026-08-13
    days on market $235,999 Price Change 116 DOM
  14. 2026-08-11
    days on market $235,999 Price Change 114 DOM
  15. 2026-08-10
    price $235,999 Price Change 113 DOM
  16. 2026-08-10
    days on market $236,999 Price Change 113 DOM
  17. 2026-08-09
    days on market $236,999 Price Change 112 DOM
  18. 2026-08-08
    days on market $236,999 Price Change 111 DOM
  19. 2026-08-06
    days on market $236,999 Price Change 109 DOM
  20. 2026-08-05
    days on market $236,999 Price Change 108 DOM
  21. 2026-08-04
    days on market $236,999 Price Change 107 DOM
  22. 2026-08-03
    pricestatusdays on market $236,999 Price Change 106 DOM
  23. 2026-07-31
    days on market $238,999 Active 103 DOM
  24. 2026-07-30
    days on market $238,999 Active 101 DOM
  25. 2026-07-28
    days on market $238,999 Active 100 DOM
  26. 2026-07-26
    days on market $238,999 Active 98 DOM
  27. 2026-07-24
    days on market $238,999 Active 96 DOM
  28. 2026-07-23
    days on market $238,999 Active 95 DOM
  29. 2026-07-22
    days on market $238,999 Active 94 DOM
  30. 2026-07-21
    days on market $238,999 Active 93 DOM
  31. 2026-07-20
    days on market $238,999 Active 92 DOM
  32. 2026-07-18
    days on market $238,999 Active 90 DOM
  33. 2026-07-18
    days on market $238,999 Active 89 DOM
  34. 2026-07-16
    days on market $238,999 Active 88 DOM
  35. 2026-07-15
    days on market $238,999 Active 87 DOM
  36. 2026-07-14
    days on market $238,999 Active 86 DOM
  37. 2026-07-13
    days on market $238,999 Active 85 DOM
  38. 2026-07-13
    days on market $238,999 Active 84 DOM
  39. 2026-07-11
    days on market $238,999 Active 83 DOM
  40. 2026-07-10
    statusdays on market $238,999 Active 82 DOM
  41. 2026-07-09
    days on market $238,999 Price Change 81 DOM
  42. 2026-07-07
    days on market $238,999 Price Change 79 DOM
  43. 2026-07-06
    days on market $238,999 Price Change 78 DOM
  44. 2026-07-05
    days on market $238,999 Price Change 77 DOM
  45. 2026-07-03
    days on market $238,999 Price Change 75 DOM
  46. 2026-07-02
    days on market $238,999 Price Change 74 DOM
  47. 2026-07-01
    days on market $238,999 Price Change 73 DOM
  48. 2026-06-30
    days on market $238,999 Price Change 72 DOM
  49. 2026-06-30
    pricestatus $238,999 Price Change 71 DOM
  50. 2026-06-29
    days on market $237,999 Active 71 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$24,472
− Mortgage interest
−$13,220
− Property taxes
−$3,540
− Insurance
−$1,180
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,958
− Management
−$1,958
− HOA
−$228
− Depreciation
−$6,865
Taxable loss
−$4,476
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,074
After-tax cash flow
$608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
  • Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hernandez El F TX #1,709/4,322 Nat'l #21,128/41,679 Middle Goodnight Middle F TX #1,536/1,662 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High San Marcos H S F TX #1,157/1,632 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
San Marcos CISD
NCES district ID
4838970
Math proficiency
18% ▼ -16.00%
Reading proficiency
31% ▼ -8.00%
Median HH income
$34,538
Composite
20.11/100
National rank
#8644
State rank
#731 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

Score
66/100
State rank
#614
US rank
#11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Comal County · 286,948 people
Metro
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP)
40,953
Household income
$135,315
Rent vs Own
12.5% rent · 87.5% own
Severe rent burden
5% of renters

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
286,948 people
By 2030
336,923 · +17.4%
By 2040
441,894 · +54.0%
By 2050
553,462 · +92.9%
By 2075
838,261 · +192.1%
By 2100
1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (71%)
Race & ethnicity
White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry
Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
Foreign-born
6% · Canada
Languages at home
89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

2024 margin
Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
2008→2024 swing
+7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
All cycles
2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-11.9% since first listed
10 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-16 Price Changed $237,999 LERA
  • 2026-06-14 Price Changed $237,999 Zillow
  • 2026-06-12 Price Changed $238,999 Zillow
  • 2026-06-12 Price Changed $238,999 LERA
  • 2026-06-02 Price Changed $239,999 LERA
  • 2026-05-31 Listed $239,999 Zillow
  • 2026-05-21 Price Changed $260,999 LERA
  • 2026-05-12 Price Changed $263,999 LERA
  • 2026-04-21 Price Changed $264,999 LERA
  • 2026-04-19 Listed $269,999 LERA

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…