21815 Coral Mist Dr · Houston, TX 77433

$309,138

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily · 114 Days on market

Built 2025 5,209 sqft lot $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction - Ready Now! Built by Taylor Morrison, America's Most Trusted Homebuilder. Welcome to the Dylan at 21815 Coral Mist Drive in Mason Woods. This charming single-story home features four spacious bedrooms and a bright, open layout that seamlessly connects the dining area, great room, and kitchen with a central island. Step outside to enjoy a large, covered patio! The generous primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, as well. Located in Mason Woods 40s, this thoughtfully designed community offers unique floor plans that blend style and flexibility. These low-maintenance homes showcase clean lines, open-concept living, and natural light, creating a space that feels both luxuriou

Key facts

• Unique floor plans
• Open layout
• Large covered patio

Tags

• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• OPEN LAYOUT
• UNIQUE FLOOR PLANS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association managed by Crest Management; Annual association fee; Association amenities include fitness center, playground, pool, and trails; Association fee covers common areas; Curbs in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2025); Faces north; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Porch; Deck; Patio; Fence (partial); Sprinkler/irrigation; Cul-de-sac lot; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Disposal; Oven; Kitchen island; Pantry; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Tub/shower; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $309,138 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $318,250.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rowe Middle (math 26% / reading 44%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,310 students, 80% FRL); Cypress Park H S (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 2,960 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 43% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2034 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 76% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,378 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.55%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21815 Coral Mist Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,675 (0%)	1mo	$309,138	$185	99
8102 Magnolia Prairie Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,675 (0%)	1mo	$324,890	$194	96
8122 Kay Harbor Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,744 (+4%)	0mo	$346,990	$199	87
8218 Blue Shell Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (-0%)	1mo	$340,990	$204	87
8214 Blue Shell Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,756 (+5%)	0mo	$324,990	$185	84
21822 Black Tulip Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (-3%)	1mo	$309,605	$190	84
21807 Honey Scent Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,840 (+10%)	1mo	$334,935	$182	78
7919 Sunny Lily Loop	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,622 (-3%)	1mo	$319,925	$197	71
7811 Summer Solstice St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (-4%)	1mo	$331,190	$205	67
7846 Summer Solstice St	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+10%)	0mo	$337,290	$182	66
7530 Primrose Myrtle Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5	1,825 (+9%)	1mo	$312,845	$171	52
21815 White Bellflower Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,479 (-12%)	1mo	$275,000	$186	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-71,285
• Equity at exit: $47,452

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-107,120
• Equity at exit: $27,516

Cash invested: $89,110 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2034
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,634 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,669
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$398 /mo · $4,774/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,874

Max offer price $290,805

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,562
• Closing costs: $9,548
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7911 Tuscan Cypress Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	1730	$2,475	$1.43	43d	1	0.53mi
7558 Magnolia Orchid Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1743	$2,390	$1.37	43d	1	0.65mi
7546 Coral Terrace Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2050	$2,699	$1.32	43d	1	0.84mi
21114 Montego Bay Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,499	$1.18	43d	1	0.92mi
22025 Avalon Landing Ln Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,663	$2.79	2d	12	0.97mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1935	$2,622	$1.35	12d	21	0.98mi
21038 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,676	$1.48	43d	1	1.03mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,600	$1.48	43d	1	1.06mi
21010 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	2157	$2,768	$1.28	43d	1	1.09mi
21031 Sandestin Ridge Dr Cypress, TX	5.0	3.5	2099	$2,861	$1.36	43d	1	1.16mi
21034 Shore Oak Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	2110	$2,950	$1.40	43d	1	1.19mi
21038 Bay Village Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1904	$2,491	$1.31	43d	1	1.23mi
21447 FM 529 Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,205	$2.21	3d	26	1.24mi
21815 Sunshine Cove Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,650	$1.49	43d	1	1.25mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$3,258	$1.83	3d	41	1.32mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	43d	1	1.32mi
20519 Keegans Ledge Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	1907	$2,100	$1.10	43d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $309,138
3. 2026-04-07
   status Active
4. 2026-04-07
   price $319,138
5. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
6. 2026-01-23
   price $307,890
7. 2025-12-29
   price $314,890
8. 2025-11-11
   listed $315,890 Active
9. 2025-11-11
   historical
10. 2025-08-07
    listed $315,890 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,827
• − Property taxes: −$4,774
• − Insurance: −$1,591
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,528
• − Management: −$2,528
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$9,258
• Taxable loss: −$7,754
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,861
• After-tax cash flow: $-415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1700.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $309,138 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $319,138 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $307,890 HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $314,890 HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $315,890 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $315,890 HARMLS