264 Cascade Falls Ln · Marble Falls, TX 78666

$234,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 92 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,098 sqft lot Garage $137/sqft · 26% below area Est $318k · 26% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner's suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-878/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.8% in Marble Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colt El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 62% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1421 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $199,479 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,990
• List price: $234,999
• Delta: -22.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Cascade Falls Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	1mo	$244,999	$142	88
120 Cascade Falls Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	1mo	$250,990	$143	85
117 Cascade Falls Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	4mo	$250,990	$143	83
109 White Rock Trl	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,858 (+8%)	2mo	$324,990	$175	80
141 Southridge Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-5%)	3mo	$301,990	$185	78
260 Cascade Falls Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+13%)	1mo	$291,499	$150	72
276 Cascade Falls Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+13%)	0mo	$288,499	$148	71
104 Cascade Falls Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+10%)	1mo	$290,999	$153	69
104 Southridge Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+13%)	3mo	$311,999	$160	60
109 Cascade Falls Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+13%)	2mo	$281,999	$145	60
105 Southridge Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+13%)	3mo	$292,999	$150	60
248 Rock Springs Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+13%)	4mo	$284,999	$146	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-44,720
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-52,902
• Equity at exit: $20,318

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 55 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $301,085 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +15.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1421
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,087

Max offer price $224,415

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $8	+0% $-73	+5% $-154	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-152	+0% $-73	+5% $6	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $-13	base $-73	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
252 Rock Springs Dr Marble Falls, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,300	$1.38	93d	1	0.24mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Thunder RockHOA fee $25 per monthHOA covers common area maintenance and grounds maintenanceCommunity trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garageDriveway2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Utilities: Electricity availablePublic waterPublic sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-storyNew construction (builder: Lennar)Faces southeastSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick and masonry constructionComposition roofBuilt by Lennar
• Exterior features: Private yardBack yardFront yardRear porchFront porchInterior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRange
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanWalk-in closet(s)Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   pricedays on market $234,999 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $241,999 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $241,999 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   pricedays on market $241,999 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $244,999 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $244,999 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $244,999 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $244,999 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $244,999 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $244,999 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $244,999 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $244,999 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $244,999 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $244,999 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $244,999 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $244,999 Active 70 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $244,999 Active 69 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $244,999 Active 68 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $244,999 Active 67 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $244,999 Active 66 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $244,999 Active 65 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $244,999 Active 64 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $244,999 Active 63 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $244,999 Active 62 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    pricedays on market $244,999 Active 60 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $244,990 Active 59 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $244,990 Active 58 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 56 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 55 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 54 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $244,990 Active 53 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $244,990 Active 52 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $244,990 Active 51 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $244,990 Active 50 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $244,990 Active 49 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $244,990 Active 47 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $244,990 Active 45 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $244,990 Active 44 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $244,990 Active 41 DOM

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner's suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

40. 2026-06-17
    pricedays on market $244,990 Active 40 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $245,990 Active 39 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $245,990 Active 38 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $245,990 Active 36 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $245,990 Active 35 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $245,990 Active 32 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,990 Active 31 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,990 Active 30 DOM
48. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $245,990 Active 27 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $246,990 Active 26 DOM

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner's suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $246,990 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,174
• After-tax cash flow: $296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern single-story home is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. Upgrades to paint, flooring, and appliances can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Colt El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Marble Falls Middle F TX #858/1,662 Nat'l #7,581/14,009 High Marble Falls H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Marble Falls

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #7802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marble Falls, TX
• County: Hays County · 50,492 people
• City population: 20,650
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Thunder RockHOA fee $25 per monthHOA covers common area maintenance and grounds maintenanceCommunity trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garageDriveway2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Utilities: Electricity availablePublic waterPublic sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-storyNew construction (builder: Lennar)Faces southeastSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick and masonry constructionComposition roofBuilt by Lennar
• Exterior features: Private yardBack yardFront yardRear porchFront porchInterior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRange
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanWalk-in closet(s)Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $244,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $245,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $245,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-26 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Listed $246,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $246,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $246,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Listed $266,990 Zillow