10 Oakwood Ter #87 · New Windsor, NY 12553

$144,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Condo · 97 Days on market

Built 1965 Good condition $170/sqft · 8% below area Est $157k · 8% under $664/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Schools +8.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * PRICE ALERT * * UNBELIEVABLE OPPORTUNITY * * This well maintained 1 bedroom upper unit in Oakwood offers 850 sq ft of stylish and comfortable living. This unit has been meticulously maintained and features a completely renovated modern bathroom with new tiling, floors, vanity, sink & lighting. The spacious bedroom is bright and offers a large closet with mirrored doors and, because it is an end unit, an extra window that overlooks the gardens. Additional entry closets when you first enter, create a welcoming foyer that opens to the large living & dining rooms, and access to the deck, where you can enjoying morning coffee or evening cocktails.

Key facts

• $664 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $144k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-992/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (8.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in New Windsor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#529 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newburgh City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $999 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,495 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,353
• List price: $144,500
• Delta: -8.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Oakwood Ter #26	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	944 (+11%)	1mo	$165,000	$175	76
10 Oakwood Ter #88	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	950 (+12%)	0mo	$180,000	$189	75
276 Temple Hill Rd #1602	1.13mi	1/1.0	800 (-6%)	2mo	$220,000	$275	54
276 Temple Hill Rd #2112	1.21mi	1/1.0	800 (-6%)	2mo	$205,000	$256	53
43 Birchwood Dr	0.45mi	2/1.5 (+1)	996 (+17%)	1mo	$380,000	$382	46
276 Temple Hill Rd #2607	1.21mi	1/1.0	1,026 (+21%)	1mo	$230,000	$224	39
3146 Route 9W Unit 7A	1.43mi	2/2.0 (+1)	784 (-8%)	5mo	$79,268	$101	39
276 Temple Hill Rd #1506	1.14mi	1/1.0	1,026 (+21%)	3mo	$255,000	$249	37
276 Temple Hill Rd #2217	1.09mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,026 (+21%)	1mo	$248,000	$242	34
276 Temple Hill Rd #1117	1.09mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,026 (+21%)	2mo	$265,000	$258	33
276 Temple Hill Rd #2203	1.21mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,026 (+21%)	3mo	$215,000	$210	32
1004 Washington Grn	0.97mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,029 (+21%)	4mo	$265,000	$258	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-28,241
• Equity at exit: $21,545

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-29,589
• Equity at exit: $12,494

Cash invested: $40,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12553

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$758
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,168/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$664
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,105

Max offer price $132,541

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-33	+0% $-83	+5% $-133	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-162	+0% $-83	+5% $-4	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-46	base $-83	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,125
• Closing costs: $4,335
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Cross St New Windsor, NY	2.0	1.0	992	$2,250	$2.27	93d	1	0.56mi
40 Cedar Ln Unit 9 New Windsor, NY	1.0	1.0	770	$1,700	$2.21	63d	1	0.74mi
810 Blooming Grove Tpke New Windsor, NY	1.0	1.0	680	$1,875	$2.76	63d	2	1.10mi
276 Temple Hill Rd New Windsor, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1048	$1,795	$1.71	63d	2	1.15mi
2201 Vails Gate Heights Dr Vails Gate, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	897	$1,995	$2.22	63d	9	1.26mi
109 Myrtle Ave New Windsor, NY	2.0	1.0	1079	$2,200	$2.04	93d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include a pool and sidewalks
• HOA & community: Association managed by Spinnaker MgmtMonthly association fee (amount shown in listing)Association amenities include landscaping, grounds maintenance, parking, pool, snow removal and trashAssociation fee covers common area maintenance, exterior maintenance, grounds care, pool service, sewer, snow removal, trash and waterOne-time capital contribution fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parkingParking lot with unassigned spacesTotal of 1 parking space (per listing)
• Security: Security lightsSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity connected via Central HudsonPublic sewer
• Home design: Stock cooperativeThree stories (building total)Single-level unit (levels indicated as One)Entry is on level 3
• Construction: Brick constructionSlab foundation
• Exterior features: DeckPool and spa on the propertyPool is in-ground and fencedNo waterfrontNo additional structures

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three levels; entry level listed as level 3
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heatingOther heating systemWall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Entrance foyerPrimary bathroomAdditional interior features listed as 'Other'
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside the unitElectric water heater

HOA detail $664/mo · $7,968/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $144,500 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $144,500 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $144,500 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $144,500 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $144,500 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $144,500 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $144,500 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $144,500 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $144,500 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $144,500 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $144,500 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $144,500 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $144,500 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $144,500 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $144,500 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $144,500 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $144,500 Active 73 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $144,500 Active 72 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $144,500 Active 71 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $144,500 Active 70 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $144,500 Active 69 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $144,500 Active 68 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $144,500 Active 67 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $144,500 Active 66 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $144,500 Active 65 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $144,500 Active 64 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $144,500 Active 63 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $144,500 Active 62 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $144,500 Active 61 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $144,500 Active 60 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $144,500 Active 59 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $144,500 Active 58 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    price $144,500 Active 57 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $157,900 Active 57 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $157,900 Active 56 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $157,900 Active 55 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $157,900 Active 54 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $157,900 Active 52 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $157,900 Active 50 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $157,900 Active 49 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $157,900 Active 46 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $157,900 Active 45 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $157,900 Active 44 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $157,900 Active 43 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $157,900 Active 41 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $157,900 Active 40 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $157,900 Active 38 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $157,900 Active 37 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $157,900 Active 36 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $157,900 Active 35 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,094
• − Property taxes: −$2,168
• − Insurance: −$722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$7,968
• − Depreciation: −$4,204
• Taxable loss: −$2,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$719
• After-tax cash flow: $-273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,250–$12,750 screening

This well-maintained 1-bedroom townhouse in Oakwood offers a good condition with a fresh paint job and a completely renovated bathroom. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from some cosmetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Refrigerator — A modern refrigerator would improve the kitchen and appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Both Window treatments — Window treatments would enhance the appearance and provide privacy ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

A Composite school gradezoned avg 80/100

Zoned Schools

High Newburgh Free Academy A NY #506/1,100 Nat'l #1,058/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — New Windsor

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #9423

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Windsor, NY
• County: Orange County · 379,830 people
• City population: 27,384
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,384
• Household income: $92,757
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.96%
• Current HPI: 314.8506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include a pool and sidewalks
• HOA & community: Association managed by Spinnaker MgmtMonthly association fee (amount shown in listing)Association amenities include landscaping, grounds maintenance, parking, pool, snow removal and trashAssociation fee covers common area maintenance, exterior maintenance, grounds care, pool service, sewer, snow removal, trash and waterOne-time capital contribution fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parkingParking lot with unassigned spacesTotal of 1 parking space (per listing)
• Security: Security lightsSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity connected via Central HudsonPublic sewer
• Home design: Stock cooperativeThree stories (building total)Single-level unit (levels indicated as One)Entry is on level 3
• Construction: Brick constructionSlab foundation
• Exterior features: DeckPool and spa on the propertyPool is in-ground and fencedNo waterfrontNo additional structures

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three levels; entry level listed as level 3
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heatingOther heating systemWall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Entrance foyerPrimary bathroomAdditional interior features listed as 'Other'
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside the unitElectric water heater

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $157,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $157,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid