5318 Caulk Dr · Lake Park, GA 31636

$164,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1983 1.04 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this cozy 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with a fully fenced 1 acre lot! The kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, butcher block countertops and a beautiful copper farmhouse sink. Each bedroom is complete with it's own bathroom. This amazing property features a screened in front porch perfect for relaxing mornings and a back porch ideal for enjoying quiet evenings outdoors. Enjoy the convenience of a spacious shop perfect for storage or hobbies! There is also a sewer drop and a 50 amp hookup for an RV. Call today to schedule a tour!

Key facts

• Back porch
• Fully fenced lot
• 1.04 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• COPPER FARMHOUSE SINK
• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.9% in Lake Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#119 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,137 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.13%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-19,146
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,161
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31636

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $355/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $214	-5% $167	+0% $120	+5% $74	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $66	+0% $120	+5% $174	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $162	base $120	+0.5pp $78	+1.0pp $34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,900 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $164,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 42 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 41 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $164,900 Active 40 DOM
19. 2026-04-17
    listed $164,900 Active 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    Welcome to this cozy 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with a fully fenced 1 acre lot! The kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, butcher block countertops and a beautiful copper farmhouse sink. Each bedroom is complete with it's own bathroom. This amazing property features a screened in front porch perfect for relaxing mornings and a back porch ideal for enjoying quiet evenings outdoors. Enjoy the convenience of a spacious shop perfect for storage or hobbies! There is also a sewer drop and a 50 amp hookup for an RV. Call today to schedule a tour!

20. 2026-01-01
    price $164,900
21. 2025-11-11
    price $169,900
22. 2022-07-27
    soldstatus $127,000
23. 2022-07-26
    soldstatus $127,000
24. 2022-05-19
    listed $129,900
25. 2007-08-03
    soldstatus $41,500
26. 2006-03-02
    soldstatus $32,500
27. 2004-10-08
    soldstatus $18,000
28. 1995-04-28
    soldstatus $18,000
29. 1995-04-28
    soldstatus $18,000
30. 1994-04-04
    soldstatus $12,000
31. 1989-03-27
    soldstatus $10,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $355 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,162/yr (+$97/mo · 327.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$355
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,317
• − Management: −$1,317
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$1,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$334
• After-tax cash flow: $1,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lake Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #8632

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,184

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.27%
• Current HPI: 205.6279
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1501.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $164,900 SGMLS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $164,900 SGMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $169,900 SGMLS
• 2022-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-26 Sold (MLS) $127,000 SGMLS
• 2022-05-19 Listed $129,900 SGMLS
• 2007-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records
• 2006-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records
• 2004-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1995-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1995-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1994-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 1989-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $10,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $355 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.