3231 Autumn · Kirby, TX 78219

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1966 0.29 ac lot Est $174k · 31% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute well maintained home. Landscaped, and in a quiet neighborhood.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Ideal for commuting
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• IDEAL FOR COMMUTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment resources available; Potential short sale — subject to third-party approval
• HOA & community: Located in Kirby Manor subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Gas service by CPS; Electricity by CPS; Water service by City of Kirby; Sewer by City of Kirby; Water system available
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family property; Approximately 60 years old
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Brick and siding exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Eat-in layout; Solid countertops
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with ceiling fan (15 x 11); Bedroom 2 (11 x 10); Bedroom 3 (11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One living area; Eat-in kitchen; Utility room inside; Ground level / no steps; All bedrooms downstairs; Laundry room; Washer connection; Dryer connection; Gas cooking; Gas water heater; Satellite dish (owned); Solid countertops
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry room; Utility room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.4% in Kirby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#761 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hopkins El (math 20% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 788 students, 84% FRL); Kirby Middle (math 11% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,520 of 1,662 statewide, top 92%, 683 students, 94% FRL); Karen Wagner H S (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 2,366 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 57% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.60%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,565
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3414 Vinecrest	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,025 (+1%)	12mo	$198,000	$193	79
5239 Coral Mist	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-1%)	13mo	$130,000	$129	79
5405 Borchers	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,024 (+1%)	3mo	$115,000	$112	78
3719 Autumn	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,050 (+3%)	6mo	$203,000	$193	70
5405 Sir Robert	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,043 (+3%)	0mo	$168,500	$162	65
5130 Coral Mist	0.24mi	3/1.0	931 (-8%)	13mo	$169,900	$182	64
5210 Foxcross	0.50mi	3/2.0	963 (-5%)	3mo	$175,000	$182	62
5014 Cinderella	0.48mi	3/1.5	958 (-6%)	8mo	$135,000	$141	60
4866 Aspen Wood	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,052 (+4%)	6mo	$169,900	$162	55
5230 Swann	0.37mi	3/1.0	888 (-12%)	8mo	$105,000	$118	55
2501 Telegraph	0.58mi	3/2.0	923 (-9%)	12mo	$205,000	$222	44
4814 Scott Carpenter Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,110 (+9%)	9mo	$189,900	$171	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.73% appreciation · 7.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $31,959
• Equity at exit: $51,702

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $113,561
• Equity at exit: $78,303

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78219

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,042/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,279

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $217	+0% $183	+5% $149	+10% $116
Rent	-10% $64	-5% $123	+0% $183	+5% $243	+10% $303
Rate	-1.0pp $243	-0.5pp $213	base $183	+0.5pp $152	+1.0pp $121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3707 Autumn Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,500	$1.12	45d	1	0.30mi
5405 Borchers Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,295	$1.26	4d	1	0.38mi
5039 Ed White St Unit 78219 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,600	$1.40	6d	1	0.38mi
5003 Starfire St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,600	$1.25	0d	1	0.46mi
5212 Vinecrest Cir San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1421	$2,100	$1.48	45d	1	0.47mi
5015 David Scott Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,750	$1.29	25d	1	0.49mi
3407 Alan Shepard Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	25d	1	0.57mi
2644 Ackerman Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	853	$1,230	$1.44	45d	1	0.57mi
2707 Alan Shepard Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,900	$1.48	45d	1	0.65mi
4334 Hickory Hill Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.5	1129	$1,550	$1.37	12d	1	0.75mi
5719 Country Sun Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,400	$0.94	25d	1	0.80mi
4066 Sunrise Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	977	$1,550	$1.59	6d	1	0.85mi
3669 Candlehead Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1294	$1,700	$1.31	45d	1	0.86mi
4082 Sunrise Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,285	$1.14	0d	1	0.86mi
2540 Corian Glen Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,300	$1.10	23d	1	0.88mi
4102 Dakota Sun San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1202	$1,350	$1.12	45d	1	0.91mi
4074 Gallery Sun Dr San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	969	$1,295	$1.34	45d	1	0.91mi
4819 Lunar San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,289	$1.12	0d	1	0.92mi
4545 Hoeneke St San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$999	$1.00	6d	2	0.92mi
4123 Frontier Sun San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1086	$1,350	$1.24	45d	1	0.96mi
4078 Enchanted Sun San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	25d	1	0.97mi
5840 Glacier Sun Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,749	$1.30	3d	1	0.98mi
4002 Fire Sun San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1004	$1,800	$1.79	25d	1	1.00mi
4162 Frontier Sun San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1246	$1,400	$1.12	45d	1	1.02mi
5846 Sun Farm San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,425	$1.22	25d	1	1.08mi
6206 Eddie Way Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	4d	1	1.09mi
6206 Eddie Way Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	25d	1	1.09mi
6210 Eddie Way Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	4d	1	1.10mi
6210 Eddie Way Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	45d	1	1.10mi
4047 Indian Sunrise San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1089	$1,150	$1.06	45d	1	1.10mi
6214 Eddie Way Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,600	$1.31	23d	1	1.11mi
6214 Eddie Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,600	$1.31	22d	1	1.11mi
6222 Eddie Way Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	5d	1	1.12mi
6222 Eddie Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	25d	1	1.12mi
6230 Eddie Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	25d	1	1.14mi
5916 Mission Sunrise San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	860	$1,000	$1.16	25d	1	1.16mi
2631 Sunset Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,650	$1.22	25d	1	1.16mi
4107 Sunrise Point Dr San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	822	$1,095	$1.33	16d	1	1.19mi
4025 Coral Sunrise San Antonio, TX	4.0	1.0	825	$1,495	$1.81	5d	1	1.19mi
6254 Eddie Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,375	$1.12	45d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   historical Active Option
3. 2026-04-25
   price $119,000
4. 2026-04-03
   listed $129,900 New
5. 2022-11-04
   historical
6. 2022-10-07
   price $188,000
7. 2022-09-18
   listed $165,000 New
8. 2006-09-25
   soldstatus 67-char remark

   Show marketing remark (67 chars)

   Cute well maintained home. Landscaped, and in a quiet neighborhood.

9. 2006-07-18
   listed $76,000 67-char remark

   Show marketing remark (67 chars)

   Cute well maintained home. Landscaped, and in a quiet neighborhood.

10. 1985-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,042 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,042 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$4,042
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $465
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$112
• After-tax cash flow: $2,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Judson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824990
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,542
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7689
• State rank: #660 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kirby

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #761
• US rank: #13943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kirby, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,924
• Household income: $52,094
• Rent vs Own: 46.1% rent · 53.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 852.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% Two or more races 27% Black 26% White 16% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.73%
• Current HPI: 328.5107
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.72%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+56.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $119,000 LERA
• 2026-04-03 Listed $129,900 LERA
• 2022-11-04 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-10-07 Price Changed $188,000 LERA
• 2022-09-18 Listed $165,000 LERA
• 2006-09-25 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2006-07-18 Listed $76,000 LERA
• 1985-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,042 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.