48303 W 20th St Spc 160 · Lancaster, CA 93534

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 1985 Est $163k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced for a quick sale, owner buying another home so please do not miss out on this great opportunity. Other homes priced way higher so it's a win-win situation for you and you both get what you want! Great open concept floor plan with a functioning fireplace in the living room for those short winter months. Newer carpeting in living room, large fenced in side yard, perfect if you have a dog. Leisure Lake is considered to be ''The'' Premiere 55+ Community in all of Antelope Valley. Lots of activities in the club house with weekly Friday night dinners and Bingo. You can even go fishing in its own private lake! This is a gated community just a few minutes away from shopping, dining & entertainment.

Key facts

• Separate dining room
• Paved trail
• Kitchen countertop

Tags

• GAS LOG FIREPLACE
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN COUNTERTOP
• LAKE FOR FISHING
• PAVED TRAIL
• HAND-BUILT STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Length: 56 ft, Width: 24 ft; Manufacturer: Kaufman Broad, Model: Canyon Creek; Serial numbers and label/insignia on file
• Financial info: Deposit listed: $3,000
• HOA & community: Park amenities include spa/hot tub, clubhouse/rec room, and pool; Park manager: Gina (new space rent / contact manager for park deposit)

Exterior

• Utilities: Underground electric; Individual meters; Cable TV available; Natural gas
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home; Located in Leisure Lake mobile home park (Space 160); Seniors-only park
• Construction: Composition shingle roof; Exterior: metal, siding, wood; Manufactured in 1984; Skirted
• Exterior features: Rear fencing (vinyl); Awning; Porch; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Gas oven; Disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Central gas heat (natural gas)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas Range; Gas Oven; Disposal; Gas fireplace in living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $841 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,447/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 3232% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $158k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $153,260 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.82%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,624
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48303 20th St W #109	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	1mo	$166,000	$112	82
48303 20th Street West #140	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$140,000	$97	76
48303 20th St W #140	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$140,000	$97	76
48303 W 20th St #183	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	15mo	$152,000	$122	75
48303 20th St. West #169	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	13mo	$151,000	$121	72
48303 20th Spc #12 St #12	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	14mo	$169,900	$136	71
48303 W 20th St Spc 59	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	1mo	$186,500	$121	70
48303 20th W	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	1mo	$186,500	$121	70
48303 20th St W #208	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	6mo	$90,000	$78	66
48303 20TH St W #145	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	10mo	$109,990	$95	63
48303 20th St W #68	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	13mo	$120,000	$104	60
48303 W 20th Unit St #86	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	14mo	$153,500	$133	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $20,842
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $59,577
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93534

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,447 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$198 /mo · $2,370/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $841

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $950	-5% $896	+0% $841	+5% $787	+10% $732
Rent	-10% $648	-5% $745	+0% $841	+5% $938	+10% $1,035
Rate	-1.0pp $921	-0.5pp $881	base $841	+0.5pp $800	+1.0pp $759

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $158,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $158,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $158,000
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $160,000 Active
17. 2018-10-16
    historical 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Priced for a quick sale, owner buying another home so please do not miss out on this great opportunity. Other homes priced way higher so it's a win-win situation for you and you both get what you want! Great open concept floor plan with a functioning fireplace in the living room for those short winter months. Newer carpeting in living room, large fenced in side yard, perfect if you have a dog. Leisure Lake is considered to be ''The'' Premiere 55+ Community in all of Antelope Valley. Lots of activities in the club house with weekly Friday night dinners and Bingo. You can even go fishing in its own private lake! This is a gated community just a few minutes away from shopping, dining & entertainment.

18. 2018-10-15
    soldstatus $62,500 Closed 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Priced for a quick sale, owner buying another home so please do not miss out on this great opportunity. Other homes priced way higher so it's a win-win situation for you and you both get what you want! Great open concept floor plan with a functioning fireplace in the living room for those short winter months. Newer carpeting in living room, large fenced in side yard, perfect if you have a dog. Leisure Lake is considered to be ''The'' Premiere 55+ Community in all of Antelope Valley. Lots of activities in the club house with weekly Friday night dinners and Bingo. You can even go fishing in its own private lake! This is a gated community just a few minutes away from shopping, dining & entertainment.

19. 2018-09-14
    status Pending 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Priced for a quick sale, owner buying another home so please do not miss out on this great opportunity. Other homes priced way higher so it's a win-win situation for you and you both get what you want! Great open concept floor plan with a functioning fireplace in the living room for those short winter months. Newer carpeting in living room, large fenced in side yard, perfect if you have a dog. Leisure Lake is considered to be ''The'' Premiere 55+ Community in all of Antelope Valley. Lots of activities in the club house with weekly Friday night dinners and Bingo. You can even go fishing in its own private lake! This is a gated community just a few minutes away from shopping, dining & entertainment.

20. 2018-09-09
    listed $69,000 Active 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Priced for a quick sale, owner buying another home so please do not miss out on this great opportunity. Other homes priced way higher so it's a win-win situation for you and you both get what you want! Great open concept floor plan with a functioning fireplace in the living room for those short winter months. Newer carpeting in living room, large fenced in side yard, perfect if you have a dog. Leisure Lake is considered to be ''The'' Premiere 55+ Community in all of Antelope Valley. Lots of activities in the club house with weekly Friday night dinners and Bingo. You can even go fishing in its own private lake! This is a gated community just a few minutes away from shopping, dining & entertainment.

21. 2015-03-19
    historical
22. 2015-03-19
    historical
23. 2010-04-30
    listed $39,900
24. 2009-09-18
    listed $49,900
25. 2006-12-01
    soldstatus $75,900
26. 2006-08-31
    listed $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$2,370
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,349
• − Management: −$2,349
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $8,059
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,934
• After-tax cash flow: $8,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,763
• Composite: 41.01/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #565 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,430
• Household income: $61,866
• Rent vs Own: 62.7% rent · 37.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3232.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% Black 27% White 23% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.73%
• Current HPI: 395.3098
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.92%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+66.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $158,000 AVMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $160,000 AVMLS
• 2018-10-16 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2018-10-15 Sold (MLS) $62,500 AVMLS
• 2018-09-14 Pending — AVMLS
• 2018-09-09 Listed $69,000 AVMLS
• 2015-03-19 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-19 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2010-04-30 Listed $39,900 AVMLS
• 2009-09-18 Listed $49,900 AVMLS
• 2006-12-01 Sold (MLS) $75,900 CRMLS
• 2006-08-31 Listed $95,000 CRMLS