659 Hardway Rd · Clinton, AR 72031

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 337 Days on market

Built 1975 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for your dream homestead in the Ozark Mountains? This 10-acre mini farm offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and potential. Located just 5 minutes from Walmart and the heart of Clinton, Arkansas, you’ll enjoy easy access to shopping, restaurants, and the National Championship Chuckwagon Races. Spacious Home: 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 2,800 sq. ft. of living space Mini Farm Setup: Horse barn, equipment shed, chicken coop, hog pens, milking barn, and a garden area Above Ground Pool with a water slide (needs new liner) Privacy & Location: End-of-road setting with a circle drive, partially wooded and fenced acreage Second Living Area: A second kitchen and livin

Key facts

• Equipment shed
• 10 acre mini farm
• Milking barn

Tags

• 10 ACRE MINI FARM
• HORSE BARN
• EQUIPMENT SHED
• CHICKEN COOP
• HOGS PENS
• MILKING BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (39.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (39.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in Clinton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in AR, #4,397 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clinton School District (rural): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #41 of 238 in AR (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cowsert Elementary School (math 57% / reading 40%, grade D, #109 of 454 statewide, top 25%, 613 students, 100% FRL); Clinton Jr High School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade D, #65 of 201 statewide, top 34%, 309 students, 100% FRL); Clinton High School (math 34% / reading 50%, grade F, #38 of 292 statewide, top 14%, 416 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $115k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $185k implies a 1750% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,610 (39.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $88,437
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $269,832
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72031

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,126 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $410/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,369

Max offer price $151,122

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-87	-5% $-139	+0% $-192	+5% $-244	+10% $-297
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-236	+0% $-192	+5% $-147	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-99	-0.5pp $-145	base $-192	+0.5pp $-240	+1.0pp $-288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-02-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-02-02
   status Back on Market
3. 2026-01-22
   status Under Contract
4. 2025-12-20
   price $185,000
5. 2025-08-01
   price $250,000
6. 2025-06-10
   price $270,000
7. 2025-04-18
   price $290,000
8. 2025-03-02
   listed $300,000 New Listing
9. 2005-12-27
   soldstatus $10,000
10. 2002-01-14
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$774/yr (+$65/mo · 188.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,513
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$410
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,081
• − Management: −$1,081
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$5,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,375
• After-tax cash flow: $-926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clinton School District
• NCES district ID: 0504410
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $32,018
• Composite: 37.34/100
• National rank: #4438
• State rank: #41 of 238 in AR

Livability — Clinton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #4397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,108

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.08%
• Current HPI: 244.9609
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+208.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Pending — CARMLS
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $185,000 CARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $250,000 CARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $270,000 CARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $290,000 CARMLS
• 2025-03-02 Listed $300,000 CARMLS
• 2005-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $410 · -18.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.