448 Neptune Ave Unit 12G · New York, NY 11224

$399,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · Condo · 107 Days on market

Built 1946 ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Brighton Beach Trump Village Section 3 Spacious Two-Bedroom, One-Bath Coop Beautiful and bright two-bedroom, one-bath apartment located on a high floor with open views. The apartment features an updated kitchen and bath, hardwood floors, and many custom closets throughout. The windowed kitchen adds natural light and ventilation. The apartment can be sold furnished for added convenience. Building Amenities:    •   24-hour security    •   On-site superintendent    •   Laundry room    •   Gym    •   Children&r

Key facts

• Windowed kitchen
• Updated kitchen
• Custom closets

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WINDOWED KITCHEN
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CUSTOM CLOSETS
• 24 HOUR SECURITY
• ON SITE SUPERINTENDENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $384k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $363k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 98 Bay Academy (math 96% / reading 96%, grade A+, #2 of 729 statewide, top 0%, 1,488 students, 63% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,837/mo this rent would consume 105% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 4426% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 27% of rent; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $363,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
11. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.34%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.98% appreciation · 7.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $32,094
• Equity at exit: $225,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $202,722
• Equity at exit: $389,119

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11224

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,985/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$1,050
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$806
• Net cashflow: $-1,203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,359

Max offer price $224,940

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-927	-5% $-1,065	+0% $-1,203	+5% $-1,341	+10% $-1,479
Rent	-10% $-1,506	-5% $-1,354	+0% $-1,203	+5% $-1,051	+10% $-900
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,002	-0.5pp $-1,101	base $-1,203	+0.5pp $-1,306	+1.0pp $-1,411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
532 Neptune Ave Brooklyn, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	948	$4,550	$4.80	0d	8	0.23mi
2971 Shell Rd Unit 720 Brooklyn, NY	2.0	2.0	920	$4,100	$4.46	26d	1	0.31mi
2971 Shell Rd Unit 704 Brooklyn, NY	2.0	1.0	826	$3,950	$4.78	26d	1	0.31mi
2971 Shell Rd Unit 711 Brooklyn, NY	2.0	2.0	907	$4,200	$4.63	26d	1	0.31mi
2971 Shell Rd Unit 612 Brooklyn, NY	2.0	2.0	907	$4,150	$4.58	26d	1	0.31mi
2971 Shell Rd Unit 508 Brooklyn, NY	2.0	2.0	930	$4,099	$4.41	26d	1	0.31mi
2971 Shell Rd Unit 406 Brooklyn, NY	2.0	2.0	920	$3,550	$3.86	26d	1	0.31mi
2538 E 2nd St Unit 2 Brooklyn, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,600	$2.36	25d	1	0.60mi
1515 Surf Ave Brooklyn, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	706	$5,195	$7.35	0d	16	0.71mi
2483 W 16th St Brooklyn, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	22d	1	0.93mi
8642 26th Ave Unit 3 Brooklyn, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$3,100	$2.82	16d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: gymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-01
   price $399,000
3. 2025-11-04
   listed $409,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,985
• − Insurance: −$7,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,683
• − Management: −$3,683
• − HOA: −$12,600
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$20,981
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,036
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Kings County · 2,614,986 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 50,822
• Household income: $43,648
• Rent vs Own: 72.7% rent · 27.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 4426.0

Population outlook (Kings County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847,441 people
• By 2030: 2,937,006 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 3,095,491 · +8.7%
• By 2050: 3,228,968 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 3,321,723 · +16.7%
• By 2100: 3,111,387 · +9.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 19% Asian 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 10% Subsaharan African 7% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 48% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 32% Spanish 11% Chinese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Kings

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.0) · D 72.0% · R 28.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 59.4pp · 2024: 44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.0 2020: D+54.8 2016: D+61.8 2012: D+63.9 2008: D+59.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.98%
• Current HPI: 505.1405
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.03%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Pending — BNYMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $399,000 BNYMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $409,000 BNYMLS