407 S 12th St · Lake Wales, FL 33853

$179,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1951 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WILL MAKE AWESOME HOME FOR FAMILY OR RETIRED CPL. LOCATED RIGHT ACROSS STREET FROM DR. 'S OFFICE. ONE BLOCK FROM HOSPITAL AND ONLY THREE BLOCKS FROM HILLCREST ELEMENTARY. ANY AGENT WILL ENJOY SHOWING THIS HOME

Key facts

• City parks
• City water
• Shopping

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• CHICKEN COOP
• CITY WATER
• CITY PARKS
• SHOPPING
• MEDICAL FACILITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.35 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); Asphalt public maintained road access
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; Residential property in city limits; Paved lot
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area ~2035 sq ft (public records)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located outside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-158/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $180k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,472 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-30,007
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-27,281
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33853

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,918/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,491

Max offer price $177,576

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $38	+0% $-13	+5% $-64	+10% $-115
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-71	+0% $-13	+5% $45	+10% $103
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $33	base $-13	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1438 Thousand Roses Dr S Lake Wales, FL	2.0	2.0	962	$1,150	$1.20	24d	1	0.22mi
2378 Sunset Pointe Dr Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,695	$1.17	24d	1	0.49mi
2525 Maple Ave Lake Wales, FL	3.0	1.0	1458	$1,650	$1.13	24d	1	0.89mi
2538 Elm Ave Unit 2540 Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,200	$1.48	24d	1	0.92mi
2540 Elm Ave Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,200	$1.48	24d	1	0.92mi
2822 Pennachio Dr Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,900	$1.28	24d	1	0.93mi
2549 Olive Ave Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	24d	1	0.96mi
620 Emerald Ave Unit 1 Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,000	$1.28	24d	1	1.08mi
1427 Chamberlain Loop Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,775	$1.19	24d	1	1.08mi
711 Springer Dr Lake Wales, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,400	$1.65	4d	2	1.09mi
711 Springer Dr #3 Lake Wales, FL	2.0	2.0	972	$1,400	$1.44	24d	1	1.09mi
610 Emerald Ave Unit 3 Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,299	$1.50	22d	1	1.10mi
766 Hunt Dr Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1214	$2,300	$1.89	24d	1	1.20mi
444 E Tillman Ave Unit 5 Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	892	$1,100	$1.23	24d	1	1.22mi
444 E Tillman Ave Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	892	$1,100	$1.23	15d	1	1.22mi
403 E Johnson Ave Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,650	$1.38	24d	1	1.30mi
307 Steedly Ave Lake Wales, FL	3.0	1.0	1335	$1,895	$1.42	4d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $179,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    price $185,000
16. 2026-05-22
    status Active
17. 2026-05-14
    status Pending
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $195,000 Active
19. 2014-04-04
    soldstatus $45,000
20. 2010-09-13
    listed $54,000
21. 2005-07-11
    soldstatus $99,900
22. 2005-06-20
    soldstatus $89,000 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    WILL MAKE AWESOME HOME FOR FAMILY OR RETIRED CPL. LOCATED RIGHT ACROSS STREET FROM DR. 'S OFFICE. ONE BLOCK FROM HOSPITAL AND ONLY THREE BLOCKS FROM HILLCREST ELEMENTARY. ANY AGENT WILL ENJOY SHOWING THIS HOME

23. 2005-04-15
    listed $109,900 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    WILL MAKE AWESOME HOME FOR FAMILY OR RETIRED CPL. LOCATED RIGHT ACROSS STREET FROM DR. 'S OFFICE. ONE BLOCK FROM HOSPITAL AND ONLY THREE BLOCKS FROM HILLCREST ELEMENTARY. ANY AGENT WILL ENJOY SHOWING THIS HOME

24. 2005-02-18
    soldstatus $41,000
25. 2005-01-07
    historical
26. 2005-01-06
    listed $38,130
27. 2004-04-08
    listed $41,000
28. 1995-09-22
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,918 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,918 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,918
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$3,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$783
• After-tax cash flow: $625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Wales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Wales, FL
• City population: 30,351
• Population (ZIP): 12,385

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 36% Black 19% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 18% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.98%
• Current HPI: 333.8292
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+285.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2010-09-13 Listed $54,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $99,900 Public Records
• 2005-06-20 Sold (MLS) $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-15 Listed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-18 Sold (MLS) $41,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-06 Listed $38,130 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-08 Listed $41,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,918 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.