423 Martin Dr · Lakeland, FL 33809

$89,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1978 9,479 sqft lot $46/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a Bargain!! look no more - this is a well maintained 2bed 2 bath home with a community pool, club house with library, card room, billiards, meeting room. Pool is heated. Lots of community activities and only $30.00/mo. HOA dues. This home has been lovingly cared for. New floors in living room, kitchen and bathroom. Home is at the end of a cul de sac perfect for snow bird or full time resident. Call listing agent for your personal showing.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Shuffleboard courts
• Clubhouse

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• HURRICANE STRAPS
• HEATED POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $46; Total annual fees: $552; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Timothy Wright); monthly fee $46; HOA includes pool, common area taxes, escrow reserves fund; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court; Association approval required; Deed restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs) with limits; max pet weight 30 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Faces east
• Construction: Metal siding and frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a completed structure
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed patio; Side porch; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Shed(s); Workshop; Located on a cul-de-sac; Level lot; Paved road; public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds and drapes
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $90k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.15%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $15,647
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $43,625
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $816

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
239 Village Crest Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,495	$1.64	23d	1	1.06mi
259 Village View Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	885	$1,600	$1.81	23d	1	1.11mi
114 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,450	$1.40	23d	1	1.11mi
124 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,550	$1.50	3d	1	1.12mi
235 Leelon Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	921	$1,295	$1.41	23d	1	1.20mi
165 Shannon Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	3d	1	1.30mi
6031 Crafton Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,125	$1.23	14d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    price $89,900
16. 2026-03-19
    listed $95,000 Active
17. 2015-03-25
    soldstatus $29,500 Sold 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    What a Bargain!! look no more - this is a well maintained 2bed 2 bath home with a community pool, club house with library, card room, billiards, meeting room. Pool is heated. Lots of community activities and only $30.00/mo. HOA dues. This home has been lovingly cared for. New floors in living room, kitchen and bathroom. Home is at the end of a cul de sac perfect for snow bird or full time resident. Call listing agent for your personal showing.

18. 2015-03-20
    status Pending 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    What a Bargain!! look no more - this is a well maintained 2bed 2 bath home with a community pool, club house with library, card room, billiards, meeting room. Pool is heated. Lots of community activities and only $30.00/mo. HOA dues. This home has been lovingly cared for. New floors in living room, kitchen and bathroom. Home is at the end of a cul de sac perfect for snow bird or full time resident. Call listing agent for your personal showing.

19. 2014-11-26
    listed $37,500 Active 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    What a Bargain!! look no more - this is a well maintained 2bed 2 bath home with a community pool, club house with library, card room, billiards, meeting room. Pool is heated. Lots of community activities and only $30.00/mo. HOA dues. This home has been lovingly cared for. New floors in living room, kitchen and bathroom. Home is at the end of a cul de sac perfect for snow bird or full time resident. Call listing agent for your personal showing.

20. 2014-11-20
    soldstatus $29,500 Sold 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    What a Bargain!! look no more - this is a well maintained 2bed 2 bath home with a community pool, club house with library, card room, billiards, meeting room. Pool is heated. Lots of community activities and only $30.00/mo. HOA dues. This home has been lovingly cared for. New floors in living room, kitchen and bathroom. Home is at the end of a cul de sac perfect for snow bird or full time resident. Call listing agent for your personal showing.

21. 2014-11-08
    status Pending 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    What a Bargain!! look no more - this is a well maintained 2bed 2 bath home with a community pool, club house with library, card room, billiards, meeting room. Pool is heated. Lots of community activities and only $30.00/mo. HOA dues. This home has been lovingly cared for. New floors in living room, kitchen and bathroom. Home is at the end of a cul de sac perfect for snow bird or full time resident. Call listing agent for your personal showing.

22. 2014-06-30
    listed $37,500 Active 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    What a Bargain!! look no more - this is a well maintained 2bed 2 bath home with a community pool, club house with library, card room, billiards, meeting room. Pool is heated. Lots of community activities and only $30.00/mo. HOA dues. This home has been lovingly cared for. New floors in living room, kitchen and bathroom. Home is at the end of a cul de sac perfect for snow bird or full time resident. Call listing agent for your personal showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $5,229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,255
• After-tax cash flow: $5,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+139.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-25 Sold (MLS) $29,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-26 Listed $37,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-20 Sold (MLS) $29,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-30 Listed $37,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,080 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.