10255 Crotty Ave · Flagler Estates, FL 32145

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2015 Est $226k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming Hastings home is an exceptional value in today's market, priced to sell quickly and attract savvy buyers. Featuring inviting living spaces and abundant natural light, it offers comfort and potential in every room. Situated in a peaceful neighborhood with easy access to local amenities, this property stands out as a rare opportunity. The well‑designed layout flows effortlessly for everyday living and entertaining. With great curb appeal and strong market appeal, it's positioned to move fast. Immediate interest is expected at this price point. Don't miss your chance to see it soon. Offers are encouraged before it's gone!

Key facts

• Built 2015
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#763 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Woods Elementary School (math 51% / reading 46%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 689 students, 66% FRL); Gamble Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 55%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 925 students, 47% FRL); Pedro Menendez High School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,519 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 20% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $180k implies a 1108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,215 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.36%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,044
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10255 Crotty Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,404 (0%)	2mo	$185,000	$132	99
10340 Crotty Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+15%)	0mo	$245,000	$152	64
4350 Wanda St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	1mo	$209,000	$161	55
10270 Ebert Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	18mo	$215,000	$177	54
10405 Crotty Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	8mo	$214,900	$177	54
4305 Wanda St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-12%)	1mo	$190,000	$154	53
10025 Baylor Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+11%)	4mo	$182,500	$117	52
4115 Cedar Ford Blvd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	4mo	$224,900	$185	51
10530 Crotty Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+7%)	6mo	$234,900	$156	50
4230 Benedict	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-8%)	22mo	$370,000	$285	33
10545 Baylor Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+14%)	18mo	$259,900	$162	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $115,009
• Equity at exit: $162,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.45×
• Total profit: $325,216
• Equity at exit: $349,700

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32145

• Home prices YoY: 19.1%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,772 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,366/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,434

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $318	+0% $267	+5% $216	+10% $165
Rent	-10% $127	-5% $197	+0% $267	+5% $337	+10% $407
Rate	-1.0pp $358	-0.5pp $313	base $267	+0.5pp $221	+1.0pp $173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $180,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   This charming Hastings home is an exceptional value in today's market, priced to sell quickly and attract savvy buyers. Featuring inviting living spaces and abundant natural light, it offers comfort and potential in every room. Situated in a peaceful neighborhood with easy access to local amenities, this property stands out as a rare opportunity. The well‑designed layout flows effortlessly for everyday living and entertaining. With great curb appeal and strong market appeal, it's positioned to move fast. Immediate interest is expected at this price point. Don't miss your chance to see it soon. Offers are encouraged before it's gone!

3. 2026-03-31
   historical 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   This charming Hastings home is an exceptional value in today's market, priced to sell quickly and attract savvy buyers. Featuring inviting living spaces and abundant natural light, it offers comfort and potential in every room. Situated in a peaceful neighborhood with easy access to local amenities, this property stands out as a rare opportunity. The well‑designed layout flows effortlessly for everyday living and entertaining. With great curb appeal and strong market appeal, it's positioned to move fast. Immediate interest is expected at this price point. Don't miss your chance to see it soon. Offers are encouraged before it's gone!

4. 2026-03-29
   status Active 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   This charming Hastings home is an exceptional value in today's market, priced to sell quickly and attract savvy buyers. Featuring inviting living spaces and abundant natural light, it offers comfort and potential in every room. Situated in a peaceful neighborhood with easy access to local amenities, this property stands out as a rare opportunity. The well‑designed layout flows effortlessly for everyday living and entertaining. With great curb appeal and strong market appeal, it's positioned to move fast. Immediate interest is expected at this price point. Don't miss your chance to see it soon. Offers are encouraged before it's gone!

5. 2026-01-21
   historical Active Under Contract 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   This charming Hastings home is an exceptional value in today's market, priced to sell quickly and attract savvy buyers. Featuring inviting living spaces and abundant natural light, it offers comfort and potential in every room. Situated in a peaceful neighborhood with easy access to local amenities, this property stands out as a rare opportunity. The well‑designed layout flows effortlessly for everyday living and entertaining. With great curb appeal and strong market appeal, it's positioned to move fast. Immediate interest is expected at this price point. Don't miss your chance to see it soon. Offers are encouraged before it's gone!

6. 2026-01-09
   listed $180,000 Active 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   This charming Hastings home is an exceptional value in today's market, priced to sell quickly and attract savvy buyers. Featuring inviting living spaces and abundant natural light, it offers comfort and potential in every room. Situated in a peaceful neighborhood with easy access to local amenities, this property stands out as a rare opportunity. The well‑designed layout flows effortlessly for everyday living and entertaining. With great curb appeal and strong market appeal, it's positioned to move fast. Immediate interest is expected at this price point. Don't miss your chance to see it soon. Offers are encouraged before it's gone!

7. 2015-08-04
   soldstatus $14,900 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Set up lot with well and septic to accommodate 3br home or mobile home. CLOSE TO ST. AUGUSTINE AND THE BEACHES. Financing available.

8. 2015-05-21
   status Pending
9. 2015-05-21
   historical
10. 2010-11-30
    listed $14,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Set up lot with well and septic to accommodate 3br home or mobile home. CLOSE TO ST. AUGUSTINE AND THE BEACHES. Financing available.

11. 2010-11-30
    listed $14,900 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Set up lot with well and septic to accommodate 3br home or mobile home. CLOSE TO ST. AUGUSTINE AND THE BEACHES. Financing available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,366 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$128/yr (+$11/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,366
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,701
• − Management: −$1,701
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$67
• After-tax cash flow: $3,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Flagler Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #763
• US rank: #16863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagler Estates, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,750

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.24%
• Current HPI: 250.8035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1108.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $180,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-29 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-01-21 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $180,000 realMLS
• 2015-08-04 Sold (MLS) $14,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2015-05-21 Pending — realMLS
• 2015-05-21 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2010-11-30 Listed $14,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2010-11-30 Listed $14,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,366 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.