Reed Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$308,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,819 sqft · SingleFamily · 266 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This impeccable, new construction home is the Reed plan by LGI Homes, located in the beautiful community of Lago Mar. Lago Mar offers its residents incredible on-site amenities, including a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon, a playground, a pool and a splash pad. The Reed displays a modern, upgraded kitchen is equipped with a full suite of stainless-steel Whirlpool brand appliances, polished granite countertops, and an abundance of cabinet storage. The downstairs master suite showcases two large windows, a walk-in shower, a soaking tub and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Splash pad
• Pool
• Playground

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• 12-ACRE CRYSTAL LAGOON
• PLAYGROUND
• POOL
• SPLASH PAD
• MODERN UPGRADED KITCHEN

🏗️ New construction. The $308,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,093.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $309k).
• Recommended offer: $272k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,276/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,832 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.47%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,093
• List price: $308,900
• Delta: 3.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3208 Bolt Rope Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-4%)	1mo	$323,990	$185	85
14001 Baikal Manor Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-1%)	1mo	$321,990	$178	79
3026 Banyan Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (+2%)	1mo	$345,900	$187	78
3215 Sea Nettles Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,739 (-4%)	2mo	$309,900	$178	73
14322 Sun Coral Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,621 (-11%)	1mo	$297,900	$184	64
14117 Baikal Manor Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,063 (+13%)	1mo	$312,990	$152	64
2211 Manila Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0	1,817 (-0%)	1mo	$295,000	$162	63
13714 Ballast Green Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,738 (-4%)	1mo	$344,560	$198	61
13926 Baikal Manor Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (-11%)	1mo	$305,990	$189	56
13708 Sabine Lake Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+4%)	2mo	$284,900	$150	52
13705 Sorico Bay Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,635 (-10%)	0mo	$268,400	$164	50
13614 Sabine Lake Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,635 (-10%)	2mo	$269,900	$165	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-16,237
• Equity at exit: $44,596

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $36,768
• Equity at exit: $25,860

Cash invested: $83,746 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,486/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,701

Max offer price $299,093

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,773
• Closing costs: $8,973
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	1d	1	0.12mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	44d	1	1.14mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	4d	2	1.28mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $308,900 Active 266 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $308,900 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $308,900 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $308,900 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $308,900 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $308,900 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $308,900 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $308,900 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $308,900 Active 252 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $308,900 Active 251 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $308,900 Active 250 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $308,900 Active 249 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $308,900 Active 248 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    price $308,900 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    This impeccable, new construction home is the Reed plan by LGI Homes, located in the beautiful community of Lago Mar. Lago Mar offers its residents incredible on-site amenities, including a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon, a playground, a pool and a splash pad. The Reed displays a modern, upgraded kitchen is equipped with a full suite of stainless-steel Whirlpool brand appliances, polished granite countertops, and an abundance of cabinet storage. The downstairs master suite showcases two large windows, a walk-in shower, a soaking tub and a walk-in closet.

15. 2026-01-06
    price $305,900 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    This impeccable, new construction home is the Reed plan by LGI Homes, located in the beautiful community of Lago Mar. Lago Mar offers its residents incredible on-site amenities, including a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon, a playground, a pool and a splash pad. The Reed displays a modern, upgraded kitchen is equipped with a full suite of stainless-steel Whirlpool brand appliances, polished granite countertops, and an abundance of cabinet storage. The downstairs master suite showcases two large windows, a walk-in shower, a soaking tub and a walk-in closet.

16. 2025-10-04
    price $302,900 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    This impeccable, new construction home is the Reed plan by LGI Homes, located in the beautiful community of Lago Mar. Lago Mar offers its residents incredible on-site amenities, including a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon, a playground, a pool and a splash pad. The Reed displays a modern, upgraded kitchen is equipped with a full suite of stainless-steel Whirlpool brand appliances, polished granite countertops, and an abundance of cabinet storage. The downstairs master suite showcases two large windows, a walk-in shower, a soaking tub and a walk-in closet.

17. 2025-09-26
    listed $299,900 Active 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    This impeccable, new construction home is the Reed plan by LGI Homes, located in the beautiful community of Lago Mar. Lago Mar offers its residents incredible on-site amenities, including a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon, a playground, a pool and a splash pad. The Reed displays a modern, upgraded kitchen is equipped with a full suite of stainless-steel Whirlpool brand appliances, polished granite countertops, and an abundance of cabinet storage. The downstairs master suite showcases two large windows, a walk-in shower, a soaking tub and a walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,754
• − Property taxes: −$4,486
• − Insurance: −$2,293
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,145
• − Management: −$3,145
• − Depreciation: −$8,701
• Taxable income: $793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$190
• After-tax cash flow: $5,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a beautiful exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $308,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $305,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $302,900 Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Listed $299,900 Zillow