15266 Maple Dr · Renton, WA 98058

$149,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Built 1972 Good condition Est $113k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Wonderland Estates, a highly sought-after 55+ community offering comfort, convenience, and an incredible opportunity for affordable living in an unbeatable location. Ideally situated just off HWY 169 with easy access to I-5 and I-405, this beautifully maintained and truly turn-key home places you near endless amenities including Maplewood Golf Course, Cedar River Trail, parks, shopping, dining, schools, and more. Inside, enjoy bright open-concept living with a spacious kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, abundant cabinetry, and a large island perfect for gathering and everyday living. Modern touches throughout the home create a fresh and inviting atmosphere, while two b

Key facts

• Hwy 169 access
• I-5 access
• Cedar river trail

Tags

• HWY 169 ACCESS
• I-5 ACCESS
• I-405 ACCESS
• MAPLEWOOD GOLF COURSE
• CEDAR RIVER TRAIL
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential manufactured home; Calculated building area: 840 square feet
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Located in Wonderland Estates (manufactured home park); Park amenities: clubhouse, common area, laundry, RV parking; Park approved for sale; Land lease: $595

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking; 2 open parking spaces; RV parking available in the park
• Utilities: Public water; Electric and natural gas available; Electric water heater (located in home)
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level; East-facing
• Construction: Cement plank and wood construction; Composition roof; Wood skirt; Pillar/post/pier, slab and tie-down foundation; Manufactured house structure
• Exterior features: Cement planked and wood exterior; Wood products; Paved, dead-end street lot; Outside storage; Has a view; Patio/porch/deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Engineered hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath; 1 bathtub; 1 shower
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Forced air heating; Cooling present
• Interior features: Fireplace (gas); Water heater in home; Den/office; Living room; Utility room; Kitchen with eating space; Vaulted ceilings; Skylights; Drapes; Landscaped; Patio/porch/deck; Jetted/soaking tub; Bath off primary; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in community (park); Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $632 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.3% in Renton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#52 in WA, #949 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D-, cost of living F.
• Renton School District (urban): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #119 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.06%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,560
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15268 Maple Dr Unit M68	0.01mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	2mo	$115,000	$137	96
15268 Pine Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	19mo	$78,000	$99	70
15251 Maple Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	896 (+7%)	24mo	$120,000	$134	65
15291 Maple Dr Unit m-91	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+10%)	20mo	$99,000	$107	57
15032 156th Pl SE	0.56mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	18mo	$443,000	$461	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $18,530
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $78,821
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98058

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,111 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $632

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $735	-5% $683	+0% $632	+5% $580	+10% $528
Rent	-10% $465	-5% $548	+0% $632	+5% $715	+10% $798
Rate	-1.0pp $707	-0.5pp $670	base $632	+0.5pp $593	+1.0pp $553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15300 SE 155th Pl Renton, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1069	$2,250	$2.10	0d	3	0.33mi
15205 140th Way SE Renton, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1121	$2,918	$2.60	0d	10	0.73mi
14600 SE 176th St Unit L4 Renton, WA	2.0	1.0	787	$1,995	$2.53	44d	1	1.33mi
14600 SE 176th St Unit K5 Renton, WA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,445	$2.41	3d	1	1.34mi
17536 149th Ave SE Unit O6 Renton, WA	1.0	1.0	588	$1,625	$2.76	15d	1	1.35mi
17537 151st Ave SE Renton, WA	1.0	1.0	740	$1,570	$2.12	15d	1	1.38mi
11002 SE 176th St Renton, WA	1.0	1.0	692	$1,350	$1.95	3d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,026
• − Management: −$2,026
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $5,522
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,325
• After-tax cash flow: $6,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This turn-key manufactured home in Wonderland Estates is in good condition with modern updates and a great location. It's ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy the community amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both update flooring to hardwood — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint improves aesthetics and value
• Both replace carpet with hardwood — hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update flooring to hardwood — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both replace carpet with hardwood — hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Renton School District
• NCES district ID: 5307230
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,354
• Composite: 47.13/100
• National rank: #5108
• State rank: #119 of 291 in WA

Livability — Renton

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #949

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Renton, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 158,600
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 42,980
• Household income: $115,201
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 812.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Asian 16% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -798.11%
• Current HPI: 321.3895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $149,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid