1042 Maple Rd · Williamsville, NY 14221

$359,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1968 10,640 sqft lot Est $436k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Roomy & Ready for move in - drive into 2 car garage & parking area for easy turn around on Maple Road! Ceramic tile entry to Kitchen; gleaming hardwood floors on 1st and 2nd floors; remodeled kitchen with definition formica countertop and formal DR/family room w/ WBFP leads to enclosed screened rear porch to large back yard; large closets; 100 amp elec service; partially finished basement.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Widened driveway
• Wood fireplace

Tags

• WOOD FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS YARD
• SCREENED-IN BACK PATIO
• WIDENED DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: 2-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Brick and shake siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Resale property
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rectangular lot with approximately 80 x 133 dimensions; Main thoroughfare frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Laminate flooring; Varies by room
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dining area; Eat-in kitchen; Window treatments; Drapes
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Laundry located in the basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.5% in Williamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#44 in NY, #693 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $144k; list at $360k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $314,437 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $436,044
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Presidents Walk	0.10mi	4/1.5	2,154 (+0%)	1mo	$358,000	$166	94
228 Sundown Trl	0.32mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,091 (-3%)	2mo	$425,000	$203	73
53 Wickham Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,172 (+1%)	4mo	$395,000	$182	72
373 Hunters Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,328 (+8%)	6mo	$525,000	$226	68
97 Ponderosa Dr	0.42mi	4/1.5	2,351 (+10%)	3mo	$399,999	$170	62
54 Surrey	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,197 (+2%)	3mo	$491,000	$223	58
26 Carriage Hill East E	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,160 (+1%)	3mo	$400,000	$185	58
85 Mahogany Dr	0.46mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,993 (-7%)	4mo	$420,000	$211	58
373 Sherbrooke Ave	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,000 (-7%)	4mo	$495,000	$248	57
306 Hunters Ln	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (+15%)	0mo	$480,000	$195	55
116 The Paddock	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,428 (+13%)	5mo	$575,000	$237	49
80 Chaumont Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,423 (+13%)	6mo	$450,000	$186	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-63,813
• Equity at exit: $53,662

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-42,808
• Equity at exit: $31,118

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,144 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$637 /mo · $7,649/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,386

Max offer price $326,221

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-89	+0% $-191	+5% $-293	+10% $-394
Rent	-10% $-439	-5% $-315	+0% $-191	+5% $-66	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-99	base $-191	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Segsbury Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,950	$1.98	25d	1	0.29mi
15 Telfair Dr Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.5	1976	$4,250	$2.15	4d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 448-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   listed $359,900 Pending 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,649 · $637/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,649 · $637/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$7,649
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,019
• − Management: −$3,019
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable loss: −$8,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,012
• After-tax cash flow: $-276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — Williamsville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #693

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,255
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+154.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $359,900 WNYREIS
• 2014-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $144,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-17 Sold (MLS) $144,000 WNYREIS
• 2014-04-07 Listed $149,999 WNYREIS
• 2012-08-15 Listed $147,999 WNYREIS
• 2012-05-12 Listed $151,800 WNYREIS
• 2005-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $141,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,649 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.