235 Gibson Cir · Hortense, GA 31543

$183,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · Other · 58 Days on market

Built 2026 1.10 ac lot $145/sqft · 8% below area Est $199k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY! EASY TO SHOW! Check out this 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home located on 1.1 acres in Hortense, Ga. Will qualify for FHA, VA, & USDA Financing.

Key facts

• 1.1 acre lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 58 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $183k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-353 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brantley County (rural): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #26 of 174 in GA (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Brantley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Brantley County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $183k implies a 887% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,445 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.26%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,083
• List price: $183,000
• Delta: -8.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $29,300
• Equity at exit: $113,879

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $104,097
• Equity at exit: $205,517

Cash invested: $51,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31543

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,154 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$960
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$229 /mo · $2,745/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,601

Max offer price $131,970

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,750
• Closing costs: $5,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $183,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $183,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $183,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $183,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $183,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $183,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $183,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $183,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    listed $185,000 Active 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY! EASY TO SHOW! Check out this 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home located on 1.1 acres in Hortense, Ga. Will qualify for FHA, VA, & USDA Financing.

18. 2025-12-03
    price $159,000
19. 2025-06-27
    price $194,500
20. 2025-05-21
    price $195,000
21. 2025-04-21
    soldstatus $18,540 Closed
22. 2025-04-03
    status Pending
23. 2025-04-02
    price $23,000
24. 2024-10-31
    listed $38,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,251
• − Property taxes: −$2,745
• − Insurance: −$915
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,108
• − Management: −$1,108
• − Depreciation: −$5,324
• Taxable loss: −$7,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,823
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brantley County
• NCES district ID: 1300480
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,053
• Composite: 37.85/100
• National rank: #4328
• State rank: #26 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hortense

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,914

Population outlook (Brantley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,422 people
• By 2030: 18,220 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 17,441 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 16,044 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 11,707 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 7,006 · -62.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Brantley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+82.5) · D 8.7% · R 91.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: -63.1pp · 2024: -82.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+82.5 2020: R+81.2 2016: R+78.6 2012: R+67.0 2008: R+63.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.90%
• Current HPI: 167.0028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+386.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $185,000 HABR
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $159,000 HABR
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $194,500 HABR
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $195,000 HABR
• 2025-04-21 Sold (MLS) $18,540 GIAR
• 2025-04-03 Pending — GIAR
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $23,000 GIAR
• 2024-10-31 Listed $38,000 GIAR

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $214 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.