105 W Herndon Ave Unit Sp 33 · Fresno, CA 93650

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 335 Days on market

Built 1976 $94/sqft · 17% above area Est $115k · 17% over ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great find ! All Inclusive Mobile Home Park at Villa Capri with (No Age Restrictions !!).Freeway Proximity & Conveniently Located Close to River Park !!This Inviting Double Wide Mobile Home sits on Space 33 which is all the way towards the Back of the Mobile Park and offers Added Privacy !It Features: 2Bd/2Bth, 1440sqft of Functional Floor Plan.Convenient Auto Lift Elevator right next to the wooden steps. Inviting sitting area on Covered Porch. Dual Pane Windows with lots of Light. Wet Bar. Dishwasher. Inside Laundry Washer & Dryer will be included at no additional value or warranty from Seller. AC Unit. Storage Shed on Back yard. (If Buyers are interested some of the furniture pieces & personal items are available for sale upon request). Some of the Mobile Home Park Amenities are: Club House, Fenced Community Refreshing Pool !!Please contact the office Manager Genevieve to find out the requirements to qualify for Park Approval M-Fr 9am to 5pm at: .Per office manager the current space Rent is $544.99 plus $117.73 for water, sewer & garbage.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Freeway proximity
• Wet bar

Tags

• FREEWAY PROXIMITY
• AUTO LIFT ELEVATOR
• COVERED PORCH
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• WET BAR
• INSIDE LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $614 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 335 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 335 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.49%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,113
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: 17.28%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 W Herndon Ave #8	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$66	87
221 W Herndon Ave #87	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$119,000	$83	84
221 W Herndon Ave #9	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$53,000	$37	84
221 W Herndon #37	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$120,000	$83	80
221 W Herndon Ave #118	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$139,500	$97	79
221 W Herndon Ave #71	0.18mi	2/1.8 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$143,000	$99	79
105 Herndon #60	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	0mo	$120,000	$93	78
221 W Herndon #66	0.18mi	2/1.8 (-1)	1,488 (+3%)	8mo	$139,900	$94	74
221 W Herndon Ave #184	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	12mo	$69,900	$52	70
221 W Herndon Ave #130	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,275 (-12%)	2mo	$119,500	$94	67
221 W Herndon Ave #41	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	12mo	$100,000	$74	66
221 W Herndon Ave #192	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$112,000	$90	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $112,648
• Equity at exit: $121,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.96×
• Total profit: $301,045
• Equity at exit: $262,275

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93650

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $614

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
91 W Sierra Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	1291	$2,500	$1.94	16d	1	0.35mi
135 E Stuart Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	3d	1	0.73mi
6075 N Poplar Ave Apt E Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	3d	1	0.77mi
6052 N College Ave Unit A Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	43d	1	0.79mi
336 W Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	43d	1	0.85mi
6549 N Palm Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,760	$1.60	1d	2	0.89mi
6515 N Orchard St Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	16d	1	0.98mi
445 W Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,695	$1.99	3d	2	1.01mi
5669 N Fresno St Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,537	$1.68	1d	10	1.12mi
373 W Nees Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$1,855	$2.14	3d	1	1.12mi
7579 N Angus St Unit 101 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,825	$1.47	23d	1	1.13mi
584 E Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,425	$1.58	43d	1	1.14mi
5544 N Poplar Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1868	$2,485	$1.33	43d	1	1.15mi
485 E Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,452	$1.60	3d	8	1.15mi
7580 N Angus St Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	43d	1	1.16mi
445 W Nees Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,820	$2.15	1d	10	1.21mi
1249 W Spruce Ave Unit 1249 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,975	$1.58	10d	1	1.25mi
7511 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1078	$2,350	$2.18	1d	21	1.28mi
1271 W Spruce Ave Unit 1271 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,850	$1.48	10d	1	1.29mi
7722 N Angus St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,575	$1.92	3d	1	1.30mi
5721 N Callisch Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	1393	$1,950	$1.40	3d	1	1.30mi
5270 N San Pablo Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	903	$1,545	$1.71	3d	2	1.39mi
7675 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,830	$1.85	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 335 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 333 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 329 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 328 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 327 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $135,000 Active 324 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $135,000 Active 323 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $135,000 Active 322 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 321 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 320 DOM
12. 2025-09-15
    price $135,000 1082-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1082 chars)

    Great find ! All Inclusive Mobile Home Park at Villa Capri with (No Age Restrictions !!).Freeway Proximity & Conveniently Located Close to River Park !!This Inviting Double Wide Mobile Home sits on Space 33 which is all the way towards the Back of the Mobile Park and offers Added Privacy !It Features: 2Bd/2Bth, 1440sqft of Functional Floor Plan.Convenient Auto Lift Elevator right next to the wooden steps. Inviting sitting area on Covered Porch. Dual Pane Windows with lots of Light. Wet Bar. Dishwasher. Inside Laundry Washer & Dryer will be included at no additional value or warranty from Seller. AC Unit. Storage Shed on Back yard. (If Buyers are interested some of the furniture pieces & personal items are available for sale upon request). Some of the Mobile Home Park Amenities are: Club House, Fenced Community Refreshing Pool !!Please contact the office Manager Genevieve to find out the requirements to qualify for Park Approval M-Fr 9am to 5pm at: .Per office manager the current space Rent is $544.99 plus $117.73 for water, sewer & garbage.

13. 2025-08-13
    price $155,000 1082-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1082 chars)

    Great find ! All Inclusive Mobile Home Park at Villa Capri with (No Age Restrictions !!).Freeway Proximity & Conveniently Located Close to River Park !!This Inviting Double Wide Mobile Home sits on Space 33 which is all the way towards the Back of the Mobile Park and offers Added Privacy !It Features: 2Bd/2Bth, 1440sqft of Functional Floor Plan.Convenient Auto Lift Elevator right next to the wooden steps. Inviting sitting area on Covered Porch. Dual Pane Windows with lots of Light. Wet Bar. Dishwasher. Inside Laundry Washer & Dryer will be included at no additional value or warranty from Seller. AC Unit. Storage Shed on Back yard. (If Buyers are interested some of the furniture pieces & personal items are available for sale upon request). Some of the Mobile Home Park Amenities are: Club House, Fenced Community Refreshing Pool !!Please contact the office Manager Genevieve to find out the requirements to qualify for Park Approval M-Fr 9am to 5pm at: .Per office manager the current space Rent is $544.99 plus $117.73 for water, sewer & garbage.

14. 2025-07-15
    listed $165,000 Active 1082-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1082 chars)

    Great find ! All Inclusive Mobile Home Park at Villa Capri with (No Age Restrictions !!).Freeway Proximity & Conveniently Located Close to River Park !!This Inviting Double Wide Mobile Home sits on Space 33 which is all the way towards the Back of the Mobile Park and offers Added Privacy !It Features: 2Bd/2Bth, 1440sqft of Functional Floor Plan.Convenient Auto Lift Elevator right next to the wooden steps. Inviting sitting area on Covered Porch. Dual Pane Windows with lots of Light. Wet Bar. Dishwasher. Inside Laundry Washer & Dryer will be included at no additional value or warranty from Seller. AC Unit. Storage Shed on Back yard. (If Buyers are interested some of the furniture pieces & personal items are available for sale upon request). Some of the Mobile Home Park Amenities are: Club House, Fenced Community Refreshing Pool !!Please contact the office Manager Genevieve to find out the requirements to qualify for Park Approval M-Fr 9am to 5pm at: .Per office manager the current space Rent is $544.99 plus $117.73 for water, sewer & garbage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 48 unhealthy d/yr today · 50 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $5,547
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,331
• After-tax cash flow: $6,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• City population: 593,114
• Population (ZIP): 2,969

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 33% White 12% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 41% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.16%
• Current HPI: 547.5597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $135,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $155,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listed $165,000 FRESNOMLS