40940 Roselle Loop · Zephyrhills, FL 33540

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Manufactured · 62 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Forest Lake Estates, a 55+ age qualified community where you can find yourself in a dream home! This stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is on a large corner lot. At Forest Lake Estates you will enjoy an abundance of amenities including swimming pools, hot tub, putt-putt golf, tennis/pickleball courts, shuffleboard, indoor and outdoor gyms, dog parks, billiards and much more. We are minutes from shopping, restaurants, entertainment and a short drive from Florida's award-winning gulf coast beaches. This home has 1,575 sq ft of beautifully designed living space located in Zephyrhills, FL. This property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and ti

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Putt putt golf
• Large corner lot

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• SWIMMING POOLS
• HOT TUB
• PUTT PUTT GOLF
• TENNIS PICKLEBALL COURTS
• SHUFFLEBOARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 40940 Roselle Loop, Zephyrhills, FL 33540
• Financial info: Active listing with a list price of $169,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence (spec plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,575

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built property (new construction inventory)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.36%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,877
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $27,165
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33540

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,548/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 44 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,548
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,857
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$446
• After-tax cash flow: $4,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It has a good curb appeal and is located in a 55+ age-qualified community with various amenities. The home has a good potential for value increase with some cosmetic updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both Clean the gutters — Cleaning the gutters can improve the home's appearance and prevent water damage.
• Both Replace the flooring — Replacing the flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Update the kitchen appliances — Updating the kitchen appliances can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Update the bathrooms — Updating the bathrooms can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Update the HVAC and mechanical systems — Updating the HVAC and mechanical systems can improve the home's comfort and increase its value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Clean the gutters — Cleaning the gutters can improve the home's appearance and prevent water damage. ↑
• Both Replace the flooring — Replacing the flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Update the kitchen appliances — Updating the kitchen appliances can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Update the bathrooms — Updating the bathrooms can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Update the HVAC and mechanical systems — Updating the HVAC and mechanical systems can improve the home's comfort and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 48,266
• Population (ZIP): 11,098

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.57%
• Current HPI: 370.8747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B