96915 Mcgirts Creek Loop · Yulee, FL 32097

$509,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,525 sqft · Land · 161 Days on market

Built 2025 0.28 ac lot $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE-IN READY - Our Wimbledon - 2525s. f. floor plan features an open living room seamlessly connected to a spacious Gourmet Kitchen, ideal for entertaining. This 4BR/3BA/3CG home includes a Master Suite with a walk-in shower as well as a walk-in closet. A covered porch extends the living area outdoors, while a separate guest bedroom with an adjoining bath ideal for guests during backyard parties/events. Our home sits on a 0.28-acre lot (12,212s. f. ), that backs to a preserve area.

Key facts

• Master suite
• Covered porch
• Open living room

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $850

Exterior

• Parking: Three-car garage; Garage door opener; Three or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Under construction; Preservation frontage; Residential zoning
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Built by NEW ATLANTIC BUILDERS
• Exterior features: Sprinkler/irrigation system; Rear covered porch; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Stove
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Vinyl windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $510k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (37.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (49.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $51k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$88k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($449k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,128 (49.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.10%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $208,211
• Equity at exit: $459,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $666,358
• Equity at exit: $990,624

Cash invested: $142,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,591 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,674
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,072/yr
• Insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-1,083

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,962

Max offer price $318,579

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,475
• Closing costs: $15,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
84143 Swallowtail Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	4.0	2875	$2,500	$0.87	7d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-02
   price $509,900
2. 2026-03-20
   price $514,900
3. 2026-02-19
   price $519,900
4. 2026-01-18
   price $529,900
5. 2025-12-11
   listed $549,900 Active
6. 2025-08-29
   listed $549,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,072 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,232 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,160/yr (+$180/mo · 104.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 36% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,072
• − Insurance: −$2,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,488
• − Management: −$2,488
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$14,833
• Taxable loss: −$22,750
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,460
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yulee, FL
• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $509,900 AINCAR
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $514,900 AINCAR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $519,900 AINCAR
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $529,900 AINCAR
• 2025-12-11 Listed $549,900 AINCAR
• 2025-08-29 Listed $549,900 AINCAR

Property tax history

+357.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,072 · +357.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.