98 Mongaup Rd · Mongaup Valley, NY 12701

$119,000

None bd · None ba · — sqft · Land · 45 Days on market

2.14 ac lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sackett Lake Paradise Awaits! Nestled in the heart of Monticello, New York, lies this stunning 2.14-acre property on picturesque Sackett Lake. Offering breathtaking, serene surroundings, this tranquil retreat is perfect for nature lovers, outdoor enthusiasts, and those seeking a peaceful escape. Property Highlights: - Over two-acre property with abundant natural beauty. - Prime location on Sackett Lake. - Serene and private setting, ideal for relaxation and recreation. - Proximity to Monticello's amenities, including shopping, dining, and entertainment - Endless opportunities for outdoor activities, such as boating and hiking. - Walking distance to launch a boat in Sackett Lake. - Existing plans for a large home are ready to be built on this beautiful oasis. Build Your Dream Home or Escape! This exceptional property presents a unique opportunity to build your dream home or weekend getaway or invest in a lucrative rental property. With its picturesque setting and abundant natural beauty, this Sackett Lake property will surely captivate and inspire. Schedule a viewing and make your dreams a reality!

Key facts

• 2.14-acre property
• 2.14 acre lot
• Listed 45 days

Tags

• 2.14-ACRE PROPERTY
• PRIME LOCATION ON SACKETT LAKE
• SERENE AND PRIVATE SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Three garage spaces; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Utilities: See remarks
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Private pool; Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances
• Bathrooms: Five full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Cathedral ceilings; Open floor plan; Open kitchen; Unfinished basement; Pull-down attic stairs; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a land listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 1.9% in Mongaup Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kenneth L Rutherford School (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #2,020 of 2,108 statewide, top 96%, 492 students, 81% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.48%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $90,445
• Equity at exit: $107,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.39×
• Total profit: $246,252
• Equity at exit: $231,191

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12701

• Home prices YoY: 16.7%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $484	-5% $443	+0% $402	+5% $361	+10% $320
Rent	-10% $280	-5% $341	+0% $402	+5% $463	+10% $525
Rate	-1.0pp $462	-0.5pp $432	base $402	+0.5pp $371	+1.0pp $340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
443 Sackett Lake Rd Unit 16-3 Monticello, NY	1.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	23d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on marketlisting id $119,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on marketlisting id $119,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $119,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 23 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $3,116
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$748
• After-tax cash flow: $4,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mongaup Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Sullivan County · 12,197 people
• City population: 453
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 12,197
• Household income: $57,222
• Rent vs Own: 63.8% rent · 36.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 31% Black 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.71%
• Current HPI: 507.739
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-20.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $119,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $119,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-28 Listed $139,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-19 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-22 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-09 Listed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-18 Listed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid